Predicting the Impact of Five 49ers Primed with Bigger Roles in 2020
Impact Levels:
- Low: Minimal statistical improvement from an individual standpoint. Does not noticeably improve positional group and offense/defense as a whole.
- Medium: Substantial statistical improvement. Ensures positional group and offense/defense will play at or above the same level.
- High: Ready to breakout. Possesses the potential to take positional group and offense/defense to new heights.
1) Jeff Wilson Jr. - Running Back
Last season, Wilson played a minimal role for the 49ers. Over the course of the season, he played in only 11 of the team’s 19 games. The eight games he missed were due to him being inactive, not injured. Wilson only logged 97 offensive snaps in ten regular season games.
Wilson made things happen with his limited opportunities, scoring five touchdowns -- most notably, the game-winning touchdown catch at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Wilson finished the season with 105 rushing yards, while averaging 3.9 yards-per-carry, and scoring four touchdowns on the ground.
Despite the 49ers trading Matt Breida, the running back room is still very crowded. Raheem Mostert is bulking up for a higher volume of carries in 2020, and Tevin Coleman still projects to be a main featured back. The ultimate wildcard of the group is Jerick McKinnon, who appears ready to compete for a role once the time comes.
(Related: Remembering what a healthy Jerrick McKinnon brings to the offense).
Last season, the 49ers top-three running backs split carries fairly evenly. Coleman and Mostert led the team in rush attempts with 137 each, and Matt Breida chipped in 123 attempts. More specifically, Coleman averaged just under 10 carries per game, while Breida averaged 9.5 and Mostert 8.5.
With Breida gone, a lot of carries are on the table for Wilson, McKinnon, and undrafted rookies JaMycal Hasty and Salvon Ahmed to compete for. Wilson is in a great spot to compete for a higher work dosage, after serving primarily as a goal-line back last season.
However, Wilson’s sample size is extremely small. In 16 career games, Wilson Jr only averages 4 yards per carry. While it is not a terrible average, it certainly isn’t the explosiveness that Breida and his career 5 yards per carry brought to the table.
Even if Wilson sees a higher dosage of snaps in 2020, it is hard to imagine him increasing his averages. Expect Wilson to continue serving as the 49ers goal-line back, and see a noticeable increase in his snap count.
Impact Level: Low. The impact Wilson will have on the 2020 season will be low as Mostert and Coleman are clearly in front of him. McKinnon, Hasty, and Ahmed are competing for touches Wilson hopes to take over as well.
2020 Projected Stat Line: 65 carries, 260 yards, and four rushing touchdowns. 10 receptions, 80 yards, no receiving touchdowns.
2) Kendrick Bourne - Wide Receiver
Bourne developed into a reliable fourth option for Jimmy Garoppolo down the stretch of the 2019 season. Going into the 2020 season, Bourne is the highest-paid 49ers wide receiver. Bourne has spent more game time in Kyle Shanahan’s offense than any other wide receiver on the roster, and his knowledge and experience is vital to the 49ers’ success to begin the season.
With off-season programs delayed, that is going to setback rookie Brandon Aiyuk in regards to learning the Shanahan offense. This makes Bourne a shoe-in to start opposite of Deebo Samuel and be the third receiving option behind Samuel and George Kittle.
Last season, Bourne played 465 out the team’s 976 offensive snaps. That amounts to around 48%. In those snaps, Bourne caught 30 passes for 358 yards and five touchdowns. Bourne also added another touchdown in the playoffs against the Vikings. The most impressive stat is that during the last two seasons, nearly 75% of Bourne’s catches went for first-downs or touchdowns.
Bourne is in line for a major increase in playing time and, per his social media accounts, is clearly working hard each and every day to prepare for the increased workload.
Impact Level: Medium. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel will be the passing options opposing defenses will be zeroing in on, leaving Bourne as an overlooked option. This sets up Bourne to have his best season yet.
2020 Projected Stat Line: 55 catches, 687 yards, and six touchdowns.
3) Daniel Brunskill - Offensive Lineman
When the 49ers lost both Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey to injuries, Brunskill and Justin Skule filled in admirably at the edges of the offensive line.
According to Pro Football Focus, Brunskill was the best pass-blocker on the team. Brunskill received a pass-blocking grade of 80.9, while next up was Weston Richburg with a grade of 75.1. Furthermore, Brunskill was graded as the 26th best offensive tackle out of the 82 with enough playing time to qualify.
The 49ers are set at both tackle spots with Trent Williams taking over for Joe Staley, and Mike McGlinchey holding it down on the right side. So Brunskill figures to be the top candidate to win the starting right guard job.
If the superior pass-blocking that Brunskill displayed at tackle translates to guard, the offensive line will be vastly improved. McGlinchey is a tremendous run-blocker, but still has a ton of room to develop as a pass-blocker. Anchoring Brunskill next to McGlinchey will help tighten up that right side, making the 49ers’ offensive line one of the best.
Per NFL Next-Gen stats, Garoppolo had the seventh least amount of time to throw out of all qualifying quarterbacks. With plugging Brunskill in at right guard, the amount of time Garoppolo has to throw will likely increase.
Impact Level: High. If Brunskill can play guard like he played tackle, there will be significant improvement in the interior of the offensive line.
4) DJ Jones - Defensive Tackle
DJ Jones was coming into his own as a solid rotational defensive tackle before an ankle injury suffered in Week 14 against the Saints landed him on injured reserve.
Standing 6'0" and weighing around 320 pounds, Jones is a stout run defender who moves well given his size. Jones also flashed pass-rushing ability over the course of the 2019 season.
Last season, Jones recorded two quarterback sacks, three quarterback hits, four tackles for loss, and a forced fumble -- all of which were career highs.
With the departure of DeForest Buckner, a lot of snaps are going to be handed out to a committee of defensive linemen. Jones, along with first-round rookie Javon Kinlaw, figure to be the two main interior d-linemen to inherit Buckner’s snaps.
However, there are other linemen in the conversation to take over a good amount of Buckner’s snaps. Kerry Hyder, who can play on the interior and edge of the defensive line, was signed this off-season. Jullian Taylor and Kevin Givens have been preseason stars in the past, and their development may threaten Jones’ snap count.
With Jones being limited to run downs, as Arik Armstead will most likely kick inside with Kinlaw on passing downs, it is hard to see Jones producing higher numbers than last season. Jones' sample size is small, and what we’ve seen from Jones in three seasons doesn’t necessarily scream out as a guy who is ready to make the most out of a higher volume of snaps.
It’ll be interesting to see how much of a gap there is between Jones, Givens and Taylor once the pre-season comes around.
Impact Level: Low. The 49ers run defense ranked right towards the middle in 2017, as they allowed 112.6 rushing yards-per-game. It is unlikely that the 49ers’ run defense will improve with Jones projecting to have a bigger role. Not to mention Hyder, Givens, and Taylor are threatening Jones’ playing time.
2020 Projected Stat Line: two sacks, five QB hits, six tackles for loss.
5) Emmanuel Moseley - Cornerback
After playing one game in 2018, Moseley seemingly came out of nowhere last season as he burst onto the scene after Ahkello Witherspoon suffered a foot injury Week 3.
Even though Witherspoon was eventually given his starting job back, Moseley established himself as the No. 2 corner opposite of Richard Sherman throughout the 49ers’ playoff run.
As soon as Moseley was inserted to the starting lineup, he immediately made plays. Moseley finished the 2019 season playing in all 19 games (including playoffs): recording 57 tackles, 12 passes defensed, and two interceptions. Per PFF, Moseley ranked 31st in overall grade out of 115 corners.
To the surprise of many, the 49ers did not draft a cornerback in this year’s draft. That leaves Witherspoon as Moseley’s main competition for the starting job. With the top four corners (Sherman, Moseley, K’Wuan Williams, and Witherspoon) all entering contract seasons, players are not just competing for playing time but a larger paycheck.
Moseley projects to be a starting outside corner, along with Sherman. The role and development of Moseley is crucial regarding the defense’s ability to repeat it’s 2019 success.
Sherman is still playing at a high level, which means Moseley’s side of the field should see the higher volume of pass attempts. Moseley will need to continue to hold his own for the 49ers to have the number one pass defense in the NFL again.
Impact Level: High. The cliche saying “you’re only as strong as your weakest link” is very applicable here. The 49ers have a tremendous front-seven, and Sherman, Ward, and Tartt are all solid secondary pieces. Moseley playing at a high level will help ensure the 49ers defense can repeat their 2019 success. Moseley playing at a low level could very easily lead to the 49ers’ defense taking a step or two back.
Projected Stat Line: 60 tackles, 16 passes defensed, three interceptions.
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