Defensive rookie of the year was last won by Nick Bosa for the 49ers.
2020 didn’t have a chance with Javon Kinlaw and 2021 didn’t have anyone worth mentioning for it. 2022, however, is a different story. Drake Jackson is an edge rusher who is going to have ample opportunities to put up numbers. Opposing offenses are going to be too busy fixated on Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and others before they even get to Jackson.
As of now, DraftKings sportsbook has Jackson as a long shot to win it +3000 odds. He might start out the season slow as rookies tend to do and it’ll be a challenge to win the award since he’ll be a pass rush specialist. But all Jackson needs a renowned half a season to be an impact player en route to playoff appearance.
So what chance does Jackson have at winning defensive rookie of the year award?
I’ll give him a bit of a chance. If I had to put a percentage on it, I’d go with a 10-percent chance. There is a good reason that Jackson has longshot odds. It's because he won't be on hand for a majority of snaps. Jackson is taking on the role of Dee Ford, so he will be on for obvious passing downs. Getting more than five sacks seems like a stretch. The only way he has a case to make is if he reaches double-digit sacks or just close to it with other memorable impactful plays.
Why I gave Jackson a bit of a chance is because he plays for a playoff contender. It is easier to win the defensive rookie of the year award when your are on a playoff contending team that has an elite defense. My guess who wins the award this season would be Kyle Hamilton because of those conditions. I have more faith in him to be a significant contributor than Jackson.
But if Jackson plays an impactful role and has the production to back it up, then he will have a case to make, especially with being on a playoff team. It is not impossible. It's just going to be an uphill battle and at +3000 odds, it wouldn't make for a bad flyer bet.
What chance do you give Jackson to win it?