NFL Picks and Trends for Week 2: Can Bears Get Physical?
There is a theory in NFL betting and picks in general that it's better never to put too much emphasis on Week 1.
It generally held up because Week 1 often turns into something else in Week 2.
The Bears have to hope this is true regarding their defense, but there are reasons to think otherwise.
The explanation about their surprising defensive struggles in Week 1 resulted from not being physical enough in camp, with no preseason games.
The thinking is they'll be more capable of battling a running game against the Giants because they've had that chance to toughen up physically in Week 1. Matt Nagy calls it callousing.
Well, when were they physical in Week 1? They might still need to do this in Week 2 because there was a distinct lack of hard hitting by their front seven in the opener.
Trying to bounce back against Saquon Barkley isn't exactly the easiest way to recover from a game when 35-year-old Adrian Peterson turned the clock back 10 years on them.
As a result, all thinking on this Bears and Giants battle points at another tight game like the Bears played last week.
Trends concur.
Although the Bears are 5 1/2-point favorites the Giants have covered on the road against the Bears in their last five matchups. Overall they are 5-1 in their last six against the spread when they play the Bears.
The Bears are notorious for playing low-scoring affairs in Chicago, having gone under the total in nine of their last 11 at Soldier Field.
Trends
Here are some NFL trends to watch this week, for entertainment purposes only:
- Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy was 53-34-4 against the spread as a home favorite in Green Bay and 123-92-7 overall as his Cowboys face the Ravens.
- The under bets rule in Bills games with Josh Allen at quarterback. It's been under 20 of the last 29 games with Allen starting at quarterback.
- The Colts have won their last five against the Vikings and are 4-1 in those against the spread.
- The Ravens are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games and won all five of tose.
- The Saints are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games.
- The Lions have covered in five straight games against the Packers and are 4-1 ATS at Green Bay in their last five on the road. BUT
- The over has won five straight times in Seattle-New England games.
Watch Out
- Even though the Ravens are 5-0 in their last five road games, Bill O'Brien is 5-0 ATS when the Texans have at least 10 days to prepare for the game.
- The Eagles have covered the spread in five straight games against the Rams, but the Rams are 8-2 in their last 10 road games ATS.
Last Week 's Record
11-5 Straight up, 10-6 against the spread
Bears
The Line: Bears by 5 1/2
The Pick: Bears 20, Giants 16
Elsewhere
Bengals +6 at Browns (43 1/2) ...................Browns 20, Bengals 14
Giants +5 1/2 at Bears (41 1/2)....................Bears 20, Giants 16
Panthers +8 1/2 at Buccaneers (47 1/2)......Buccaneers 30, Panthers 22
Rams -1 1/2 at Eagles (46 1/2).....................Eagles 24, Rams 23
Broncos +7 at Steelers (41 1/2)....................Steelers 30, Broncos 13
Falcons +4 at Cowboys (52 1/2)....................Cowboys 37, Falcons 30
Lions +6 at Packers (49 1/2).........................Packers 28, Lions 26
Vikings +3 at Colts (48 1/2)...........................Colts 34, Vikings 28
Bills -5 1/2 at Dolphins (41 1/2)....................Bills 20, Dolphins 10
49ers -7 at Jets (42 1/2).................................49ers 27, Jets 13
Jaguars +8 at Titans (41 1/2).........................Titans 24, Jaguars 17
Washington +6 1/2 at Cardinals (46 1/2).......Washington 27, Cardinals 26
Chiefs -8 1/2 at Chargers (47 1/2).................Chiefs 41, Chargers 27
Ravens -7 at Texans (52 1/2)..........................Ravens 28, Texans 20
Patriots +4 at Seahawks (44 1/2)...................Seahawks 30, Patriots 27
Saints -5 1/2 at Raiders (50 1/2)....................Saints 27, Raiders 17
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