Odds Makers Have Realized How League Favors Scoring

The over/under has been loaded with plays over the season's first three weeks but something has happened to change this dependable cash cow

It often takes a week or two for odds makers to catch up to the current state of affairs in the NFL.

Point spreads become more spot on, or less chalky.

It took a week for this to happen this season, but for the past two weeks the opening still existed for easy big plays on the over in a league where points are being forced down fans' throats like they think it's the NBA. I'm waiting for a midseason rule change with 10 points for touchdowns longer than 50 yards.

It's not enough they've changed the rules in the passing game so much to favor the offense, but officials thiis year obviously been instructed to look the other way on holding calls during the pandemic, or at least allow everything short of a mugging to occur. 

Yet, when a quarterback takes incidental contact after he has already fumbled while the scramble ensues, the way Mario Edwards was penalized against Matt Ryan on Sunday, then flags fly faster than it takes for the cardboard fans to sit back down in their seats. They penalize for doing nothing but making a football play, like Akiem Hicks made later with a tackle of Ryan.

Hicks has the right idea for football.

"I am trying to be physical, but there's no ill will or bad intention," he said afterward. "So you accept the call for what it is, but I think I could speak for the people that watch the game and they want to see people get hit. They want to see the quarterback roughed up a little bit.

"You don't want him to stand in the pocket and go on vacation. You want him to feel you around him. So I accept the call for what it is, but I would hope that we would look at that sometime maybe in the offseason and say, 'Hey, let's let them hit the quarterback for a second.' "

Don't count on it, but what you can count on is points being scored and this week the odds makers have realized it's being assisted.

Eight of the games we know will be played have over/under totals in the 50s this week. That's a huge number.

You're really going to have to be convinced points are coming if you're going to play the over now in the defense-neglected NFL.

Here are my favorite trends for those who don't have the stomach for points.

The Trends

• Under in five of the last six Bears home games

• The Vikings have lost six of their last seven games

• The Saints are 7-1 in their last eight on the road

• The total has gone over in seven of Detoit's last eight at home

• The total has gone over in six of Carolina's last seven at home

• The total is over in seven of the last eight Tampa Bay home games, and seven of the last eight against the Chargers

• Seattle has won nine of its last 11 on the road

• The Giants are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine with the Rams

• The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread in their last five at home

• The Packers have gone over the total in the last five games

Last Week

10-6 straight up, 7-9 against the spread

For the Season

33-15 straight up, 23-25 against the spread

Colts at Bears

The Line: Colts by 2 1/2 (44 1/2)

The Pick: Colts 24, Bears 19

Elsewhere

Broncos +1 1/2 at Jets (40 1/2)................Jets 20, Broncos 16

Cardinals -3 at Panthers (52 1/2).............Cardinals 28, Panthers 24

Chargers +7 at Buccaneers (43 1/2)........Buccaneers 24, Chargers 16

Seahawks -6 1/2 at Dolphins (54 1/2).....Seahawks 31, Dolphins 23

Jaguars +3 at Bengals (48 1/2).................Bengals 24, Jaguars 20

Browns +4 1/2 at Cowboys (55 1/2)..........Cowboys 37, Browns 23

Saints -4 at Lions (54 1/2)..........................Saints 35, Lions 28

Vikings +3 12 at Texans (54 1/2)................Texans 37, Vikings 27

Ravens -13 at Washington (46 1/2)...........Ravens 40, Washington 17

Giants +12 1/2 at Rams (47 1/2)................Rams 26, Giants 17

Bills -3 at Raiders (51 1/2)..........................Bills 21, Raiders 17

Patriots +8 at Chiefs (53 1/2)......................Chiefs 27, Patriots 24

Eagles +7 at 49ers (44 1/2).........................49ers 28, Eagles 24

Falcons +7 at Packers (57 1/2)...................Packers 41, Falcons 27

Steelers at Titans, ppd.

*Game to be played later in the season