Why the 49ers Score a Comfortable Win in Super Bowl
Not to be a party pooper, but the tight matchup and fantastic, close Super Bowl everyone says they see coming will not occur.
It's as simple as statistical breakdown. Sometimes stats lie, these all weigh so heavily in one direction it's virtually impossible to go a different way.
Regardless of Patrick Mahomes' brilliance, the San Francisco 49ers should win this game comfortably. We'll call it 38-26.
The No. 1 factor weighing against the Chiefs is, of course, the ability of the San Francisco 49ers to run the football. They were second in the league, and actually would have been No. 1 if Baltimore didn't have a quarterback who ran like a running back.
The Chiefs' defense finished 26th against the run. They did stop Derrick Henry in the playoffs, but the Titans had nothing else much to counter then and the 49ers have a passing attack that can be explosive at times when it has to be. It's a good counter punch for the run.
The running attack led to the 49ers ranking fifth in time of possession at 31:37 a game. The 49ers were a distant 20th in TOP. Now, some of the Chiefs' low ranking is because they scored so quickly, but also it's this way because of their own lack of a run defense or running game.
These combinations can't hold up against the 49ers.
If the 49ers couldn't play pass defense well, Mahomes could still carve up the San Francisco secondary.
The 49ers have the best pass defense in the NFL.
Let's take a turn back into the season and look at the games when Mahomes really didn't play well.
He stunk against the Lions of all people. Must have been snoozing. Later, Bill Belichick probably used some of that film because the Lions play the Patriots' defenses, and New England held Mahomes to a passer rating of 83.6—not horrible but not good, just mediocre. The Patriots had the best pass defense in the league, although that was inflated by a weakling schedule. The Pats lost the game because their offense and their old man quarterback hit a wall this year and the Chiefs' defense won the game for them.
Mahomes really struggled in two other games and they were both against the same team, the lowly Los Angeles Chargers.The Charges held Mahomes to a passer rating of 81.1 in the second matchup and to a Mitchell Trubisky-like 72.7 in the first game. The first one was about a month after the knee injury Mahomes sustained so he should have been recovered by then and had a game played the week before that one.
The Chargers had Joey Bosa rushing the passer and making life difficult for Mahomes.
The 49ers have his brother Nick rushing the passer and waiting to make life difficult for Mahomes.
In those two Chargers games Mahomes went 16 of 25 for 174 yards with a touchdown and an interception and 19 of 32 for 182 yards for a touchdown and an interception.
Those came against the fifth-ranked pass defense in the NFL. And remember, the 49ers are No. 1.
Well, Mahomes can fall back on his running game? No chance. The Chiefs haven't run since Ed Podolak. Well, actually since their running back was sent out of town to get in trouble with police in another city.
The 49ers won't quite be able to lay claim to a beat down. Mahomes will always find a way to put up points.
In this one they'll be catch-up points, trying to rally from a big deficit. It won't be enough.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
