Gene Chamberlain

After Pro Football Focus finishes kissing up to Doug Pederson, there is a nice little piece on the mistake Matt Nagy made, according to PFF, by punting on a play instead of going for the first down. The percentages given show it was potentially better to go for it -- not by a lot -- but the way things were going for the Bears maybe they'd have been better off going for the first down. I'll admit I thought maybe they should go for it at the time. Then again, what we also have here is the major fault with Pro Football Focus and their analytical approach to everything. Numbers and percentages and analytics can't account for everything. You have to take the context of the decision into account. The Bears' game plan wasn't working against a better prepared team. Their quarterback wasn't seeing it. He wasn't what they told everyone he would be. They hadn't established any kind of running game and the Packers' defense was outperforming. All of those factors taken into account, the percentages don't favor going for it on fourth down at all. It's the major fault with PFF. Life doesn't happen on a piece of paper. A play can't be taken out of the context of the entire game.