A Proven Playoff Formula Being Followed by the Bears

One key statistic in a team's favor always opens doors to the playoffs and GM Ryan Pace showed he realizes this by some of his offseason moves

Author:
Gene Chamberlain
Publish date:
May 22, 2020 10:53 PM EDT

Lovie Smith knew it.

Tashaun Gipson knows it.

It appears Ryan Pace knows it as well.

After every Bears game for nine seasons Lovie Smith came into the postgame interview session with the media and invariably pointed out what the turnover margin was for the day.

Over and over and over again he did it.

Turnovers matter.

When the Bears signed Tashaun Gipson as their other safety alongside Eddie Jackson, his first reaction was to gush about joining his old buddy Buster Skrine, and then also the chance to get more turnovers.

"I'm excited to be able to come here and play with Buster, for sure," Gipson said. "And just being able to play behind a front seven like that, that's a DB's dream, obviously, any time you can have those types of dogs up front because a quarterback can only hold the ball so much.

"With that rush and that front seven, it's always going to include and have opportunities on the back end."

Ryan Pace knew it when last season ended and he started talking about the importance of the pass rush and defensive coverage, and why the offensive struggles have to end so they quit squandering opportunities.

"How many times this year were we playing with big leads where they could really pin their ears back?" Pace said. "So I think there's kind of a complementary football aspect to our sacks, our turnovers, that's connected all together with our team."

There was a good reason Smith said what he did and why Gipson is frothing at the mouth and why Pace decided to scrap Leonard Floyd and sign Robert Quinn during free agency.

Turnover ratio is the surest formula for either winning the division or making the playoffs. Teams that win the turnover ratio in games win 78% of the time according to Chase Stuart of Footballperspectives.com, and a study going back to 1950.

Passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense and rushing defense can all be factors contributing to a team's success. None are as telling as the ultimate statistic, the turnover ratio.

Bringing in Quinn can help ratchet up that pass rush pressure, which automatically heightens the effectiveness of defensive backs in coverage. This move can help return the Bears to plus-12 like they were in turnover margin in 2018 when they won the division, rather than breaking even like last year.

In the NFC North, the turnover margin champion made the playoffs six times in the last decade. Only twice in a decade did the top turnover team fail to finish at least second in the divisional standings.

So while getting best in the division doesn't guaranteed making the playoffs, it at the very least guarantees being in the running for the playoffs.

Two teams in the last decade won the turnover margin within the division, then failed to make the playoffs and fired their coaches despite winning records.

That was when the Bears finished 10-6, had the division's best turnover ratio and still placed third in the division and Smith got fired by Phil Emery. And when Jim Caldwell's Lions in 2017 finished first in turnover margin in the division at plus-10, but went 9-7 for second place and out of the wild card, he was also fired.

So owners know the importance of turnovers, as well. Teams finishing high in turnover margin are expected to win the division or make the playoffs.

If they don't, then someone's getting fired.