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The Future "Arrival" Date for Justin Fields

When Matt Nagy says the development phase can end for quarterback Justin Fields.

 Matt Nagy is still playing the long game.

You'll remember when the Bears were coming out of the draft and into rookie camp, the plan was to start quarterback Andy Dalton and let Justin Fields sit as long as it took so he could to assimilate the offense and learn how to attack defenses—perhaps through the process of osmosis or some such thing.

As anyone could tell Nagy, people who sit and learn will learn to sit in this sport. Don't bring up Aaron Rodgers. He could have put all NFL records to rest if he'd just been allowed to start by Year 2.

The model for Nagy's fabled success formula for developing a quarterback was Patrick Mahomes. He was in Kansas City one year with Mahomes and was assisted by Corey Matthaei at working with quarterbacks.

It's not apparent sitting did Mahomes any good. He played one game in 2017 and hit on 22 of 35 for 287 yards without a touchdown but with one interception for a sub-par passer rating of 76.4. He led a 27-24 win over Denver, a team quarterbacked by the highly forgettable Paxton Lynch.

Maybe Mahomes developed from sitting around almost a full year but maybe working all through the next offseason and preseason with Eric Bieniemy and Mike Kafka under Andy Reid went even further toward developing Mahomes. No one can be sure.

But it's apparent Fields is not yet ready to ascend to this level of play near the end of his first—and possibly only year—under Nagy.

It's been a season of gradual improvement in small increments by Fields, regardless of what some detractors or what some of those who bow at his feet say. His basic important NFL stats say he has improved a small amount each month.

The Bears are 2-8 in his 10 starts, and he has lost seven straight starts. Some is his fault, much is the fault of an offense that was going nowhere before he even became starter.

His passer rating has improved gradually since he first became a starter. It's almost at the level Mitchell Trubisky's was at after his first year. It's 73.5. Trubisky finished Year 1 at 77.5.

He has averaged over 6.9 yards an attempt in an offense where the identities of his receivers other than Darnell Mooney has been a guess every week since the game with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Nov. 8. His pass protection has been a problem much of the year. It appears he holds the ball too long and this exacerbates the situation. Yet, there's no denying starting Teven Jenkins now at left tackle, and moving through three different right tackles hasn't helped as he has been sacked 36 times, fourth-highest total in the league.

Justin Fields' Progress

Month by Month

MonthCompletion PercentagePasser RatingYards/Attempt

Through September

40%

39.9

3.94

Through October

59.5%

65.7

6.27

Through November

58.1%

69.0

6.87

Through December

58.9%

73.2

6.93

So after Monday night's game, Nagy addressed exactly where he feels Fields is at, and how much longer he thinks it will take for the Bears starter to reach his potential.

"I think he is learning through these times that him personally, the plays where he can get better, but the plays he does well, too," Nagy said. "This is going to be something for him not just right now—like it feels, he's had these games he's starting and playing—but this is going to be something that's going to continue with him next year and the year after.

"And then when he gets to that third and fourth year, that's when you're going to really start, it's going to be, 'OK, this game is super slow.' But it takes a little bit of time. He understands that. He knows that."

Nagy's judgment of time seems skewed. 

A little bit of time in the NFL is third and fourth year?

At one time this was true. Since they have fifth-year options on contracts, it better be third year or earlier. By the fourth year, you're Mitchell Trubisky: fifth-year option declined, over and out.

"Every rookie in this sport wants it to happen overnight, and it takes time," Nagy said. "Justin is built the right way, and you know, he's going to be really, really good."

It didn't take Mahomes three or four years, nor was he what he is now after 10 games.

It didn't take Mac Jones or Justin Herbert a long time. Both were ready at the start. Josh Allen wasn't ready at the start but by his second year he was. Jalen Hurts' second year has been an improvement but he's not there yet. For Kyler Murray it was much better his second year and outstanding his third.

Quarterbacks vary but what is certain is teams cannot wait forever in the modern NFL salary cap climate, and the fourth year is too late to wait.

Fans don't want to wait, either.

When Fields gets to that second year he'll likely have someone else coaching him. This whole process will no doubt set him back. 

It can be even worse if it turns out the current staff's work with him has been a complete and utter detriment, the way Dowell Loggains and Co. were with Trubisky.

If Fields is the quarterback the Bears believe, one who has made "wow" plays because he is the one, then he'll get better anyway and be ready well before his fourth year, if not his third year.

So much for Fields will depend on that next coaching hire.

It needs to be someone who can both train a quarterback and turn around an offense the way the Bears anticipated Nagy would.

Having someone who actually has done it, or someone who is involved doing it now is essential.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven