Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Game Preview and a Prediction
The Bills have been talking all week about focusing on what's in front of them, which is the AFC East-frontrunning New England Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m.). But they need to also pay attention to their rear-view mirror, in which the Miami Dolphins are closer than they appear.
A win would put the Bills (8-6) back in the driver's seat to win the division. A loss would open up the possibility of finishing third — behind the Patriots (9-5) and Dolphins, who have rebounded from seven straight losses (including two to the Bills) with six straight wins to improve to 7-7 and make themselves players in the playoff picture.
What will make Sunday's matchup so difficult for the Bills is that their offensive line and wide receiving corps have been decimated by COVID-19, which doesn't bode well for an offense that was healthier when dominated the first time around in New England's 14-10 triumph.
The Bills did get some good news on Saturday when left tackle Dion Dawkins was activated from the COVID list.
Here's a closer look at the game:
THE BASICS
Game: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots.
Date: Dec. 26, 1 p.m.
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Mass.
Records: Bills (8-6); Patriots (9-5).
Betting info: Patriots by 2½. Over/under, 43½.
TV: CBS.
ABOUT THE BILLS
Quarterback Josh Allen (37 TD passes last season, 31 this season) is the only Bill in franchise history to have thrown 30-plus TD passes in back-to-back seasons.
His favorite target during that span has been wide receiver Stefon Diggs (82 receptions, 1.007 yards this year), who has become the first in team history to surpass 80 catches and 1,000 yards for two straight seasons.
Diggs and left tackle Dion Dawkins were named to the Pro Bowl this week
The Bills also have been getting significant production from wide receivers Cole Beasley (76 catches, 640 yards), Emmanuel Sanders (40 catches, 606 yards) and Gabriel Davis (29 catches, 470 yards, six TDs) and tight end Dawson Knox (44 catches, 527 yards, eight TDs).
Running back Devin Singletary continues to lead the Bills in rushing yards (547) and is averaging 4.9 yards per attempt.
Linebacker Matt Milano has a career-high with 14 tackles for a loss this season. That's the sixth highest in the NFL.
The Bills also rank first in the NFL in only allowing 175.6 passing yards per game and 11 total TD passes. They're also first with a point differential of Plus-151 so far this season.
The Bills have held opposing quarterbacks to a 66.7 rating and and a completion percentage of 57.8. Both figures are the lowest in the league.
Safeties Micah Hyde (61 tackles, three interceptions, two fumble recoveries) and Jordan Poyer (83 tackles and team-high five interceptions) man the back end of that defense.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS
A 27-17 loss to Indianapolis last week snapped a seven-game winning streak for the division frontrunners.
Quarterback Mac Jones has been handed the reins and has become the frontrunner to win the NFL's Rookie of the Year Award. He's completed 69% of his passes for 3,168 yards and 18 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, six of which came in the first six games.
Jones' favorite targets are Jakobi Meyers (65 catches, 664 yards), Kendrick Bourne (45 catches, 667 yards, five TDs) and Hunter Henry (41 catches, 471 yards, team-high nine TDs).
Running back Damien Harris leads the ground game with 754 yards and nine TDs, including a 64-yard burst that proved to be the difference in the Patriots' 14-10 victory the first time around.
Pass rusher Matt Judon (12.5 sacks) and cornerback J.C. Jackson (seven interceptions) have been named to the Pro Bowl this season along with special-teams ace Matt Slater.
INJURIES
Bills: DT Star Lotulelei (personal) is out.
OL Jon Feliciano and Cody Ford, DE A.J. Epenesa and WRs Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
Left tackle Dion Dawkins was activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 list on Saturday, after not being able to practice all week.
Patriots: WR Nelson Agholor (concussion) and S Joshuah Bledsoe (calf) are out.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, WR Kendrick Bourne, OL Yasir Durant and LBs Harvey Langi, Ronnie Perkins and Cameron McGrone are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
PREDICTION
With their season on the line, the Bills will be without two of their best offensive linemen, two of their best defensive linemen, their best cornerback (Tre'Davious White, who's on the injured reserve list) and two of their best wide receivers.
Being that they couldn't generate much offense the first time around, albeit in 40-mile-per-hour winds in Buffalo, the Bills have shown little evidence they will be able to win the rematch.
Their offense has been too radically inconsistent from series to series and even from play to play.
Could the Bills suddenly put together their best game of the season?
Certainly.
But it's more likely that the same mistakes and penalties that have plagued them in their six losses will do the same again in this matchup.
Patriots 24, Bills 13.
Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro. Email to Nicky300@aol.com.
