WR vs. OT: Answering Which Should Take Precedence for Broncos at Pick 15
The Denver Broncos face an unfortunate reality entering the 2020 offseason; the best team with the best quarterback in the NFL is in their own division in the Kansas City Chiefs. Just turning 25 years old this upcoming September, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' aerial assault offense are going nowhere soon.
While there are many ways to win a football game in the NFL, there is one area the Broncos must improve if they are going to amount any attempt to dethrone the Chiefs. The Broncos' offense must fight fire with fire.
The biggest needs on that side of the ball are the wide receiver and offensive tackle positions, both of which are prime first-round considerations in the draft. Sitting with the No. 15 overall pick, should the Broncos prioritize a WR or an OT?
I've got some answers on the subject. Allow me to break it down.
An Offense Trending Up
Most of these improvements for 2020 will come from players already on the roster. With the young offensive core of QB Drew Lock, RB Phillip Lindsay, WR Courtland Sutton, TE Noah Fant, and LG Dalton Risner starting to form an exciting identity, GM John Elway must continue adding talent to the unit if Denver is to climb out of its offensive post-Peyton Manning rut.
Yes, that 2015 defense was an all-time unit, but relying on an elite defense is simply too fickle. Great defenses tend to only last a year or two and are very prone to devolving quickly due to injury, age, and players taking deals elsewhere. If the Broncos are to take back the AFC West, the offense must put up points.
Quarterback & Pass Game is Key
The reality is, a majority of the onus on the Broncos’ offense reaching its potential falls on Drew Lock. This is a quarterback league. Defenses are needed, the running game is a part of the game, but when it comes down to the data, the teams with great QB play are in the running year-after-year.
No matter how the deck is reshuffled, an elite quarterback can raise all ships and give a team a chance to reach the playoffs. Is Lock going to be ‘the guy’ in Denver? The jury is still out.
Lock has the moxie, he has the arm talent, he has the upside. However, until a larger sample size is accumulated, Lock is a relative unknown quantity. He could end up as a bargain on his rookie contract and provide value, just like Andy Dalton and Derek Carr did for their respective teams on their rookie deals, only to see those teams’ potential flatline as soon as they had to pay their quarterback.
Or is Lock's trajectory going to see him improve and play in the range of a top-10 QB? The only way to find out is to empower him with the right tools as soon as possible. Give him the means to succeed. Build the nest.
Free Agency Helps Bolster Offense
Elway and the Broncos have done a solid job attacking the offense in free agency. Signing the best interior offensive lineman available on the market in Graham Glasgow, who offers durability, positional flexibility, and a very good pass protector, means Lock’s concerns about his ‘happy feet’ and feeling pressure up the middle can be somewhat negated.
Denver also obtained former first-round RB Melvin Gordon. While the debate on whether or not paying a heavily-used running back a large deal is the best allocation of resources will likely continue, there is no doubt adding Gordon to pair with Lindsay gives Denver as good of a one-two punch as the team has ever had.
The focus now shifts from where Denver will go in free agency to what options Denver will have in front of them in the draft. It’s time to help out Lock and the passing game. But how?
An Extremely Talented WR Class
If you only know one thing about the 2020 draft class, it likely is the fact that the wide receiver depth has a chance to be one of the better ones to enter the league since 2014, which was a class that touted such talents as Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, John Brown, and Brandin Cooks.
To expect a better output from the 2020 rookie class than 2014 would be a stretch. But even in comparison to a 2019 class that had a phenomenal rookie season, 2020 appears to be better heading into the draft.
If 2020 can provide a better return than Hollywood Brown, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, Mecole Hardman, and Darius Slayton, this will be a special class indeed.
As it appears right now, there are three WRs that the Broncos would be stoked to land at pick 15 — Oklahoma’s Ceedee Lamb or either of Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs III. All three are different in what they bring to the table as receivers but all bring a skill-set that could help compliment Sutton and Fant and help accelerate Lock and the pass game.
None of the three are at the athletic freak prospect level of Julio Jones, but all three would be top-20 picks in any draft class. It does seem more probable by the day that Denver may need to move up to secure one of the ‘big three’ but the draft is unpredictable.
If Denver is unable to secure one of the tier-one WRs, it won’t be the end of the world. Sure there is a drop off in the evaluation after Lamb, Jeudy, and Ruggs but this is indeed a deep receiver class.
Denver could move down from 15 or move up from 46 to net one of Baylor's Denzel Mims, LSU's Justin Jefferson, TCU's Jalen Reagor, or Arizona State's Brandon Aiyuk. There also are a number of WRs Denver will have a chance at on Day 2 in Colorado's Laviska Shenault, Penn State's K.J. Hamler, Michigan's Donovan Peoples-Jones, Clemson's Tee Higgins, USC's Michael Pittman, Jr.
Broncos' Current WR Situation is Concerning
The Broncos undoubtedly have a need at WR. It is arguably their biggest remaining hole for their 2020 roster. Yes, Sutton is an emerging stud as an X receiver but in today’s NFL, you can’t get by with one singular receiving option.
In order to dictate matchups and put the defense in a bind, different talents are needed to help open up the passing game. Gone are the days of ‘in the box/grind it out’ football. Spread concepts are here to stay.
Whether that be due to the lack of OL talent in the NFL forcing teams to adjust to new schemes (along with the emergence of better athletes at QB to negate pressure) or simply a trickle-up from what is working at the high school to college level, the air-it-out passing attack game is a mainstay.
Just look at the shift in college football’s powerhouses. The smashmouth 10-3 games of Alabama vs LSU just a few years ago have turned into an all-out aerial bombardment with points being put up in bunches. Concepts that help create explosive pass plays and playmakers who can threaten defenses anywhere on the field are valued at an all-time high.
DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick have their roles and will very likely be a part of the 2020 Broncos’ offense. However, neither are players capable of stressing a defense. As it stands now, if an opposing offense schemes out Sutton the Broncos’ pass game will be systemically neutered.
That won’t help Lock and that won’t help the Broncos’ chances at closing the gap on the Chiefs. Saying Denver doesn’t need a WR because they already have Sutton would be like saying Denver didn’t need to sign Aqib Talib because they already had Chris Harris, Jr. To amplify the effect of one, another must be added or they can be schemed out of impacting the game.
WR makes sense at 15 and it makes sense all throughout the top-100 of the draft for the Broncos. With that said, WR is deep. Does that mean Denver would be better off going elsewhere round one?
OT Class Equally Talented & Deep
While NFL talking heads have continually discussed how incredibly talented the 2020 WR class is, it's high time that the OT class receives praise of equal magnitude. Just like the WRs, there appears to be an emerging tier-one of OTs in Louisville’s Mekhi Becton, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, Alabama’s Jedrick Wills Jr, and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas.
Personally, I don’t think Thomas’ traits warrant him as a tier-one OT alongside the others at the top of the class but he is nuanced in his hands and has as high of a floor as any in this class.
However, much like the WRs, the OT class floods with talent all throughout the likely top-100 picks. After that first tier of OTs, there is a slight drop off to tier two in Houston’s Josh Jones, Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland, USC’s Austin Jackson, TCU’s Lucas Niang.
After that tier, there still remains a number of tackles with starting NFL upside in St. John’s Ben Batch, Georgia’s Isaiah Wilson, UCONN’s Matt Peart, LSU’s Sadiq Charles, and Kansas’ Hakeem Adeniji. This OT class doesn’t have the day-three depth that this WRs will show, but in the top-100, the talent is neck-and-neck.
The Broncos’ OT Situation Isn't Desperate
Simply put, the Broncos' immediate need at OT does not rank in comparison to their need at WR. While Garett Bolles could save a baby from a burning building and some would criticize him for how he held the baby, he is likely here to stay at left tackle come 2020.
Furthermore, given the absolutely insane OT market, the Broncos exercising his fifth-year option may actually be a bargain. Bolles hasn’t been a great return on investment in regards to his first-round draft pedigree, but in terms of his play on the dollar, he's an average-level starting OT. His play brings solid return on his contract.
The Broncos’ continuous issues at right tackle, though, have yet to be solved. After signing Ja’Wuan James to a gargantuan contract last offseason, the Broncos only got glimpses of what the athletic right tackle could bring as he battled injury all of last season.
Elijah Wilkinson played willingly in his stead but that is the best one can say. Given the structure of James’ deal, Denver is stuck with him in 2020 as a starter.
Will he remain healthy? That is the million-dollar question and a gamble. It is an ‘even’ year which would follow James’ pattern of a being hurt in an odd year, followed by a healthy even year, so here’s to hoping for the best.
WR Emerges as Much Bigger Need
As it stands, the Broncos could be justified in going either direction early in the draft. The Broncos’ current WR2 and 3 in Hamilton and Patrick are simply unacceptable in today’s pass-happy league, especially as Denver transitions to an offense that features more 3-WR sets under OC Pat Shurmur. Lock deserves better and Sutton can’t do it alone. In the immediate Denver must improve its WR talent.
Long-term, going OT also makes some sense. With Mike Munchak in the fold, Denver can at least cultivate adequate talent along their OL. Just last season, the Broncos finished as Pro Football Focus’ 12th-best OL in the entire NFL, despite losing many starters (and backups) to injury over the course of the season.
Switching from the absolute stick in the mud, statuesque Joe Flacco to the athletic point-guard movement skills of Lock, the Broncos’ OL saw a massive uptick in ability thanks to mobility from the QB position.
Good Teams Let the Board Dictate the Pick
In the end, it should depend on how the board falls. If Denver believes it ‘needs’ one of the top-3 WRs, Elway should call just to see the price of a move-up. However, moving up and losing top-100 picks for the privilege goes against what the data suggests in staying put and taking as many premium-round picks as possible as they're never as much of a guarantee as teams believe.
More bullets in the chamber equals a better chance at landing quality starters in the draft.
Denver could go either WR or OT at pick 15 and it would make sense. A WR is far more likely to have a chance to impact this roster year one given the lack of impact talent behind Sutton, as well as the fact that by all indications Bolles and James will be starting at tackle in 2020.
On paper, it makes the most sense to land one of the top WRs in round one and find a development tackle on Day 2 to be a swing player year one and be groomed as a starter in the future.
However, the draft is not often so clean. Trust the board and let the talent come to you. Draft picks are multi-year investments. The key is to be flexible and when a good player is standing there staring you in the face, make the pick, be happy, and move forward.
A Hollow Philosophy
To those who make the argument that Denver is doomed if it doesn't land an OT in round one to replace Bolles or James, on top of not needing to take a WR early because the class is deep, know that that argument rings hollow.
As much as many will scream into the void and curse Elway, Bolles and James are likely to be starting in 2020 for the Broncos. Denver does need an OT and the value of a draft pick being a multi-year investment means that if the best player is an OT when the team is on the clock, take him.
The value is too good, but taking an OT over WR due to the depth of the class when that WR slot is more likely to make a year-one impact and the tackle class is equally deep in talent? I call shenanigans. Shenanigans!
If one of Ruggs, Jeudy, or Lamb are there at pick 15, there is no possible scenario in which Denver does not and should not take them. This team's needs, not only in 2020 but beyond, as well as the landscape of the draft class, dictates as such.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
