New Analytics Hint at How Broncos Will Weather the Storm With Jeff Driskel
The injuries to several key players, plus facing a tough team in the Pittsburgh Steelers, are what likely caused the Denver Broncos to fall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings for Week 2.
The Broncos sit at -35.1 percent DVOA after two weeks, ranked 28th in offense (-26.1 percent), 17th in defense (0.6 percent) and 28th in special teams (-8.5 percent).
Again, it’s important to note that DVOA hasn’t been adjusted to account for opponents, and that won’t happen until after four weeks. Still, it’s not hard to figure out that the Broncos remain a work in progress, especially with multiple key players either out for the season or for the next couple of weeks.
Special teams, after looking solid in Week 1, was pretty bad in Week 2 when it came to the punt and kick coverage units. The return game wasn’t particularly sharp, either, with one attempted kick return that should have been downed in the end zone, plus not enough yards after receiving a ball that had to be returned (and that happened on a couple of the kickoffs).
The defense is managing to hold up to some degree, even with all the injuries, so hopefully that continues. Meanwhile, the offense is a big question mark with Drew Lock set to miss time and Courtland Sutton out for the season.
But it could be worse. The Philadelphia Eagles, pegged a playoff contender by some going into the season, are the lowest-ranked team in DVOA. They are missing a couple of starters on the offensive line, but that alone doesn’t explain the team’s struggles.
Meanwhile, DVOA is favorable to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are ranked third overall, and it’s more favorable this week to the Tennessee Titans, who are now ranked 13th. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are next up on the schedule and are ranked 11th. If that holds up, the Broncos will have faced three of the stronger teams in the NFL.
The New York Jets, meanwhile, are ranked 28th overall, so the Broncos should get a winnable matchup — certainly one they should win if they continue to play hard, despite all the injuries.
Let’s go over some quick highlights about DYAR to get a picture of what the next few weeks without Lock in the lineup might look like.
Quarterbacks: Jeff Driskel finished with -45 DYAR, largely because of the sacks he took. He also had an interception, though it wasn’t his fault. But he was still better than veterans such as Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz, both who have struggled for two weeks on teams that more people projected to go to the playoffs than they did the Broncos.
Running Backs: Melvin Gordon fell to plus-2 DYAR, thanks to going against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. His receiving DYAR remains negative (-17), meaning his touchdown catch wasn’t enough to overcome the negative-yardage plays he’s had.
Wide Receivers: It remains a learning process for the young players, with Jerry Jeudy at -32 DYAR and KJ Hamler at -9 DYAR. With any luck, the two rookies will improve their performances and get to positive DYAR later in the season. On the other hand. Tim Patrick is at plus-2 DYAR, and while he’s no Sutton, he might be good enough to complement the two rookies.
Tight Ends: Now we get to the good news. Last week, I told you DYAR loves Noah Fant and, this week, that’s even more so. Fant is ranked first among all tight ends with 59 DYAR, edging out the Rams’ Tyler Higbee with 58 DYAR. I don’t think you need me to tell you how important Fant is to the offense.
Offensive Line: You probably guessed that the Broncos are no longer ranked at the top among offensive lines in pass protection. The line is ranked 26th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.9 percent. Certainly, playing the Steelers defense has a lot to do with this, but there’s also the struggles of several linemen and Driskel’s pocket awareness, which isn’t as good as Lock’s.
As for run blocking, the Broncos O-line is ranked 23rd, which is concerning. Again, facing the Steelers likely has something to do with it. But this is the area where the Broncos need to improve, so they aren’t resorting to passing 50 times per game. Even when Lock is healthy, you don’t want to be passing that many times.
Bottom Line
The Broncos have plenty of areas to improve, but it looks like the early schedule (aside from the Jets) will be as tough as some people projected especially without Lock. With any luck, the Broncos can continue to keep it close against tougher opponents and win against the weaker opponents and when Lock gets back, there'll still be enough season left to make a push down the stretch.
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