Broncos at Steelers Week 2 Odds: Broncos Open as Big-Time Underdogs | What it Means
The Denver Broncos once again came up just a hair short of victory on the field. It was indeed a 'death by inches.'
Where the Broncos did meet expectations this past Monday was in the betting world as they were able to 'cover the spread' of three points against the Tennessee Titans. Those who never got around to betting the 'under' in the game knowing both teams would work hard to establish the run game are kicking themselves.
With a few high-scoring games on Sunday highlighting the NFL's opening week, many bettors questioned their stance and decided that Week 1 was just too crazy and unpredictable to make a bet. As they say, though, go with your first instinct.
With that lesson in mind this week, bettors won't be making that same mistake.
This week, the Broncos head on the road to take on the 1-0 Pittsburgh Steelers. It should come as no surprise that the Broncos are big underdogs in this one. The Steelers might have the best defense in football and they showed it this past Monday against the New York Giants.
Pittsburgh set a new record by holding a running back with 15 or more carries to six yards rushing or less for the game. Considering this was against one of the top running backs in the game in Saquan Barkley, it hammers home how impressive that defensive effort ended up being.
The Steelers were also able to force a couple of big interceptions by Giants' second-year quarterback Daniel Jones and were consistently able to get pressure in the backfield.
Offensively the Steelers looked decent. Ben Roethlisberger showed he still has a bit left in the tank after throwing for 229 yards on 32 attempts and having three touchdowns on the night. Pittsburgh's running game saw its starting running back James Conner go down with an ankle injury only to watch his backup Benny Snell have the first 100-yard rushing game of his career, going for 113 on 19 attempts.
The Steelers' offense didn't emerge unscathed, though, as they lost a few of the starters to injury in offensive linemen Zach Banner, Stefen Wisniewski, plus the aforementioned Conner. These injuries will be worth monitoring throughout the week.
The Broncos could be in the same boat, though, with wideouts Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler, as well as running back Philip Lindsay, all recovering from injuries, none of which mention the blow of losing No. 1 cornerback A.J. Bouye for at least the next three weeks.
Getting to the betting opportunities for this upcoming game, I would once again expect the line if it does move, to be in favor of those betting on the Broncos. So it's worth waiting until later in the week to decide as a good majority of the money is being put on the Steelers right now (61%).
Let's take a look at the numbers according to Colorado-based SportsBetting.com.
ATS Betting Lines: Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Moneyline Odds: Denver +235/Pittsburgh -290
Breaking it Down
ATS: One of the biggest mistakes I see happen when it comes to betting is the overreaction that stems from Week 1's results. It's always the craziest week in the NFL, but many bettors find themselves jumping to big conclusions with a one-game sample size, which is ill-advised.
The Steelers of course went out and won big while the Broncos struggled to finish off drives and put up points which led to a larger than normal point spread. I'm not advising bettors to wager on the Broncos in this one as the Steelers are a good team that can put up points in a hurry and do have a powerful defense that shows little sign of slowing down.
This is also why I expect, if the spread does move, it will move in favor of those wanting to bet on the Broncos. If you are leaning towards betting on the Steelers, I would lock it in soon.
Over/Under: This might be one of the toughest bets to figure out in this upcoming game. Both teams have offenses that have explosive weapons, yet both have defenses smothering defenses. The Broncos showed this last week they will lean heavily on a 'bend but don't break' defense, leading to a lot more field goals.
A few trends to keep in mind for this game, though: the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their last 20 games. However, this is a different offense especially once it gets back key pieces like Sutton, Hamler, and Lindsay. I would keep an eye on the injury report before making a decision on how to bet the over/under.
Moneyline: If you are really wanting to be aggressive, the moneyline might be the way to go. Right now, the Broncos are +235. What that means is if you place a $100 bet on the game, you could walk away with $335 if the Broncos find a way to win straight up.
Of late, the Steelers have struggled against the Broncos. Denver is 4-1 straight up in their last five meetings vs. Pittsburgh. The last meeting saw Shelby Harris make an unbelievable play with an end-zone interception in Denver, sealing the victory for the Broncos 24-17.
Bottom Line
This is a tough week when it comes to figuring out where to place bets on this game. The Broncos all season might be one of the toughest teams to figure out because of the youth movement they have on the offensive side of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur does seem to believe in QB Drew Lock and trusts him in big moments. This should lead to some explosive output days, but also some days where the Broncos give the ball up in deep territory, leading to some easy scores just like we saw vs. the Titans after the Melvin Gordon fumble this past Monday.
Good luck to those who do choose to bet on this game. I personally haven’t decided where I am leaning to place my money quite yet and am waiting to see if the line keeps trending towards the Steelers.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
