Broncos vs. Bills Week 15 Odds: Denver Opens as Home Dogs | What it Means
The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes hang by a thread. A lot must go right, not all of which is in Denver's control, and it might take a miracle to make it happen.
The one thing the Broncos can control is winning out to give them the best chance possible. This week is easily Denver's toughest test left on the schedule with one of the top teams in the league coming to the Mile High City in the Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos are big home underdogs in this one, unsurprisingly, with the Bills being -6 according to SportsBetting.com. Both teams are coming off decisive wins.
The Bills dismantled one of the best teams in the league in the Pittsburgh Steelers, showing well on both sides of the ball. The Bills look in playoff form and will present the Broncos a nice test to see just where they stand as a franchise.
This win could create ripple effects that stretch into next season. It's also a big game for Drew Lock to prove that last week's performance in Carolina was no fluke, but a sign of him turning the corner.
Here are the updated betting odds heading into Saturday's matchup according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS: Buffalo Bills -6
Over/Under: 49.5
Moneyline: Broncos +225/Bills -270
ATS: I'm honestly a bit surprised the line is not a bit bigger in this one. The Bills destroyed one of the top teams in the league, making that top-tier Steelers defense look very average.
This could be a sign that the oddsmakers believe the Broncos have taken a bit of turn in the season after playing the Chiefs remarkably close and then exploding offensively against an average Panthers defense. The Bills do not have a great defense, meaning this could turn into a decent scoring game for both teams.
The other part that makes this game a little more interesting is that both quarterbacks have been known to put the ball in harm's way. Josh Allen is second in the league in turnover-worthy plays at 20 with Lock tied for third with Matt Ryan at 19. If the Broncos plan on keeping this one close, they'll need a turnover to break their way.
Over/Under: The number shown at 49.5 suggests the betting world does not expect the Broncos to continue the trend of an offensive explosion. According to Pro Football Focus, the Bills rank 23rd in overall defense while the Broncos are sitting at third.
Some are thinking this will still be a lower-scoring game but I'm not quite convinced of that as the Broncos secondary could struggle after all the injuries and Denver seems to have found something on offense that is working.
That said, the Broncos could work harder this week to establish the run and keep this a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions. This bet comes down to how a person feels about the Broncos offense and whether last week was a fluke or a sign of things to come.
Moneyline: This is the number that suggests very few believe in the Broncos winning this weekend. The Broncos sit at +225, meaning a bet of $100 would lead to $225 return in winnings.
That shouldn’t be completely unexpected as the Broncos haven’t been the most consistent team this season. I wonder whether this could be a trap game for the Bills after the war of attrition against the Steelers, which will be followed next week by a chance to knock the Patriots fully from the playoffs.
On the flip-side, that same $100 bet would only net a person $37.04 in winnings if they were to bet on the Bills. Road teams have a winning record this year in the NFL so far, but I'm not sure the money coming back is worth a bet on the Bills this week unless you believe it will be a close game with Buffalo coming out on top in the end.
Bottom Line
Again, betting this game comes down to one's view of Lock and the Broncos offense. The Bills have been one of the most consistent teams in the league this year so one can calculate with decent accuracy what to expect from them.
Keep in mind that this is not the same Bills defense of the last few years, but they do still have plenty of playmakers that can turn a game on a single play. Lock has struggled to stay consistent throughout an entire game so this is really a tough matchup to figure out.
Follow Carl on Twitter @CarlDumlerMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
