Bryce Callahan Emerges as Broncos Best Bargain Contract of 2020
I've discussed Over the Cap's valuation metric, which attempts to give an idea about how much value NFL teams are getting out of a player's contract.
While the valuation metric does not give a clear indicator as to what a player would get in a contract if he hit free agency, it does give you an idea about how much a team is getting on its return of investment in the player.
I will go over the OTC valuation for the more notable players under veteran contracts, to consider where the Denver Broncos have gotten the best value from a player, and the worst value. I plan to look at rookie contracts in another installment, because those amounts are set by the NFL, rather than negotiated between the player's agent and the team.
I didn't include two veteran contracts: Von Miller and Ja'Wuan James. Miller was lost for the 2020 season to injury, so there's nothing more to say there. James opted out because of COVID-19 concerns and got no money, save for a small advance on the salary he'll collect in 2021.
Let's look at the rest of the players, in order of best value to worst.
Bryce Callahan | CB
OTC Valuation: $12.2M
2020 Cash Spent: $4.75M
When it comes to the best value contract among veterans, it's no contest. Callahan played at a high level this season and, even though he missed the last few games because of a foot injury, he gave more than enough return on the cash the Broncos paid him this season.
I think it's safe to say the Broncos will keep Callahan for 2021, even though they could save $7M in cap space by cutting him.
Demar Dotson | OT
OTC Valuation: $7.2M
2020 Cash Spent: $2.5M
Dotson was added before the season after James opted out and provided stability in pass protection. He was a good example of a player signed to a cheap deal who provided plenty in return.
He'll be a free agent in 2021, though, and it's not likely he'll return.
Shelby Harris | DL
OTC Valuation: $5.3M
2020 Cash Spent: $3.2M
Harris arguably outplayed the one-year deal he signed, though perhaps not as much as people may have, though. Still, you can't complain about the return on investment he provided.
Harris is a free agent and isn't going to re-set the market at his position. And after injuring his knee at the end of the season, it remains to be seen if he'll be retained.
Garett Bolles | OT
OTC Valuation: $17.9M
2020 Cash Spent: $21.9M
Some context is necessary here, because Bolles played under his rookie contract for most of the season, then signed an extension in November.
He got a $20M signing bonus, but that's paid out over time. For "cash spent" purposes, I put it all in 2020, but it's possible he'll get some of that paid to him in 2021.
That's why I consider Bolles to be good value, even though the "cash spent" exceeds the OTC valuation.
Melvin Gordon | RB
OTC Valuation: $8M
2020 Cash Spent: $9M
Though the cash spent was $1M more than OTC's valuation, this was still a solid return on investment for the Broncos.
I thought Gordon got overpaid when he signed his deal last offseason, but it's harder to argue that now. And I wager he'll be sticking around in 2021.
Elijah Wilkinson | OT
OTC Valuation: $4.9M
2020 Cash Spent: $3.25M
While Wilkinson played under the restricted free agent tender, I included him among the veterans, because another tendered RFA got an extension during the season.
Context is needed here because Wilkinson missed a lot of time, and who knows how he would have performed if he played all 16 games.
On the other hand, when he did play, he wasn't as bad as he was last season, and gave more return on investment than one may have thought. Still, I'm not sure he's back in 2021, because he's an unrestricted free agent and another team might be tempted to pay him starter money.
Sam Martin | P
OTC Valuation: $2.3M
2020 Cash Spent: $2.5M
Martin is what I would call a "you get what you pay for" type of player. His OTC valuation is pretty much in line with the money he got.
Martin wasn't great, but he was a definite upgrade at the position and figures to stick around in 2021.
Brandon McManus | K
OTC Valuation: $3.3M
2020 Cash Spent: $5.5M
McManus signed an extension earlier this year and had a good start, but missed several field goals down the stretch and a couple of extra points.
He didn't quite live up to the "cash spent" metric, but he wasn't necessarily a bad return on investment. I think a case could be made for "you get what you paid for" here.
Justin Simmons | S
OTC Valuation: $7.6M
2020 Cash Spent: $11.4M
Simmons might be argued as YGWYPF, though his play wasn't always at a high level. Some of that could be attributed to the injuries the Broncos had in the secondary late in the season, forcing him to take more responsibilities.
But Simmons is a good example of why OTC valuation does not equal what he should get in a new contract. He's going to be one of the top-paid safeties in the NFL in 2021, whether it's with the Broncos or another team.
Kareem Jackson | S
OTC Valuation: $8.6M
2020 Cash Spent: $11M
Jackson is another YGWYPF player. He wasn't as good as he was in 2019, but he played well at times.
What happens with Jackson in 2021 remains to be seen. His situation could go either way — he played well enough to justify his $10M base salary, but the Broncos could decide they'd rather spend the money elsewhere and thus cut him.
Nick Vannett | TE
OTC Valuation: $2.1M
2020 Cash Spent: $2.5M
Vannett would certainly be described as YGWYPF, though I wouldn't say he was as good of a value as other players who might be described that way.
Still, his play was good at times and, because he's not an expensive player, he might stick around in 2021. That all depends on what the Broncos do in free agency and the draft.
Graham Glasgow | OG
OTC Valuation: $5.5M
2020 Cash Spent: $14.5M
Glasgow played well at times, but not so well at others, and missed multiple games because of injuries. Because the Broncos paid him a $12M signing bonus, he needed to deliver on that investment.
He didn't do enough this season to provide that return. The Broncos will stick with him in 2021, but with $8.4M in base salary due, he needs to show more in return to stick around beyond 2021.
Mike Purcell | DT
OTC Valuation: $392,000
2020 Cash Spent: $4M
Context is needed here, because Purcell played under the second-round RFA tender, signed an extension, then went on injured reserve soon after that.
I don't think Purcell was that bad of a return on investment because he did good things when he was on the field. The Broncos could cut him in 2021 to save $3.125M in cap space, but I don't expect that to happen.
Jeff Driskel | QB
OTC Valuation: $1.6M
2020 Cash Spent: $2M
On one hand, Driskel might look like a YGWYPF type of player. On the other, I imagine Broncos fans expected more from him when he got called into action earlier this season.
Because the Broncos have Brett Rypien and know he can be a backup, I don't expect the team to keep Driskel around. Cutting Driskel will save $2.5M in cap space.
Jurrell Casey | DL
OTC Valuation: $209,000
2020 Cash Spent: $11.25M
Casey played just three games before being placed on injured reserve with a torn bicep. He thus didn't provide the return on investment the Broncos expected.
Casey is one of the players who might become a cap casualty, and cutting him saves $11.8M. His future likely depends on what the Broncos want in a veteran defensive lineman, or if they are comfortable with who they have under contract.
A.J. Bouye | CB
OTC Valuation: $717,000
2020 Cash Spent: $10.3M
Bouye may be the biggest disappointment among veteran players. He missed several games early in the season because of injuries, didn't play well upon his return, then got suspended for the final three games.
Though the Broncos didn't have to pay Bouye when he was suspended, they still spent more than $10M and got little in return, making him what I view as the worst value contract for 2020. That's why he's a likely cap casualty in 2021, saving the Broncos $13.375M.
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