Answering Whether Shelby Harris' Return Takes D-Line off Broncos' Board at Pick 15
As the Denver Broncos head into draft season, just when things seemed to have settled, GM John Elway struck again. While the exact amount of cap room the Broncos have remaining fluid, no doubt the team has spent close to their budget this offseason.
Franchise-tagging S Justin Simmons, trading for CB A.J. Bouye and DL Jurrell Casey and signing IOL Graham Glasgow and RB Melvin Gordon, the Broncos have opened their wallets this offseason, making some waves around the league. No one expected much else from Elway besides perhaps a few low-dollar value signings.
An Unexpected Returnee
No one really expected that value signing to come in the form of DL Shelby Harris. With rumors circulating that Harris would be looking elsewhere for a large contract this offseason, the market for his services simply did not emerge as many predicted.
Coming off a season in which he produced six sacks, 22 hurries and a league-leading eight batted passes on the Broncos’ defensive line, it would make sense that some team would be willing to take a chance on Harris.
In the end, the market for Harris was much smaller than anyone could have imagined as he returned to Denver on a one-year, $3.25 million contract with $2,5 guaranteed. What Harris’ role along the 2020 defensive line will be is yet to be determined.
Emerging 2020 D-Line Roles
Adding Harris back to D-line equation means that the Broncos' 2020 unit can be relatively set. With Casey the new top-dog on the interior, a majority of his snaps will likely come by replacing Derek Wolfe’s role, who has since signed with Baltimore. Purcell remains the only true base-package nose tackle on the team — a small niche role but a need for Fangio’s defense nonetheless.
Where Harris and Jones will play will likely be determined by what happens in training camp but the duo gives the Broncos some quality options and establishes some depth in the trenches. The unit still has former second-round pick DeMarcus Walker, former third-rounder Dre'Mont Jones, as well as an intriguing blend of length, burst, and athleticism in Joel Heath, who will battle it out for a roster spot come preseason.
The re-signing of Harris means the Broncos are not in any dire need for a 2020 rookie to come in and contribute along the D-line. In fact, Denver could simply not even use a single draft pick on the D-line come April and be ‘fine’.
However, given the value of D-line and as well as viewing rookies as multi-year investments, Broncos Country should not completely discount the D-line early in the 2020 draft.
WR & OT are Broncos' Most Likely Round One Considerations
It seems to become more apparent by the week that the Broncos are likely to target a wide receiver in the first round, perhaps even moving up from No. 15 overall. Courtland Sutton is emerging as one of the best young WRs in football, but opposite him, there is little to be optimistic about going forward.
While DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick offer some potential as depth, neither have shown the aptitude to warrant starting snaps in a passing league. If one of Henry Ruggs, Jerry Jeudy, or CeeDee Lamb is there for the Broncos at 15, it would be shocking if Elway didn’t scoop them up.
If not a WR in round one, taking an offensive tackle makes the most sense for Denver. With the free-agent OT market being absolutely bananas, Ja’Wuan James’ injury history, Garett Bolles’ maddening inconsistencies, taking a round-one tackle makes some sense for Denver at 15.
Much like the WR class, the OT crop is extremely talented and deeper than most seasons but there does seem to be an emerging tier-one leading up to April. If one of Tristan Wirfs, Jedrick Wills, Jr., Mekhi Becton, or Andrew Thomas is on the board when the Broncos are on the clock, no one would fault them for making that pick.
Draft is Unforgivingly Unpredictable
Unfortunately for all the mock-drafters out there in the world, the only thing one can predict in the draft is chaos and no one really knows anything. All it takes is one team to fall in love with a specific player and ‘boom’, the entire landscape of the board can shift and refute what every ‘insider’ believed to be true.
That’s what makes the draft one of the more unique and mesmerizing events in all of sports. It truly is unpredictable.
The event becomes more unpredictable the further a team picks from the first overall selection. If Denver ran multiple mocks in 2018 and didn’t have hardly any in which Bradley Chubb fell to the fifth pick (just the fifth pick!), then no one really knows how the board will fall and who will be available at 15. Until the picks start coming in, it’s anyone’s best guess.
It would be the shock of the entire draft for the likes of Chase Young, Isaiah Simmons, or Jeffrey Okudah to fall to Denver at 15, let alone fall out of the top-10. The defensive trio seem to be the ‘crown jewels’ of the 2020 class and a prize for any team fortunate enough to not have to take a stab at a quarterback early.
The draft is impossible to predict, but it is rather safe to assume none of those three will be in range for Elway and the Broncos.
If BPA is Kinlaw or Brown at 15, Broncos Shouldn't Hesitate
That being said, it does seem possible that one of the top interior defensive linemen just might be available for Denver at 15. Elway and the Broncos very well may decide to be aggressive and move some of their excess day-two draft capital to trade up for a player of their choosing, but predicting trade-ups is difficult because it takes two teams to tango.
If one of the top interior DL — Javon Kinlaw or Derrick Brown — is indeed the ‘best player available’ at 15, that very likely means that most if not all the top WRs and OTs are off the board. If no enticing trade-down options are on the phone for Elway, the best course of action would be to simply take the talent staring at you in the face.
Yes, the Broncos' D-line would be fine standing pat but smart NFL GMs never let a solid player stop them from taking a great one, especially in regards to the draft. With Purcell and Harris on very cheap one-year deals and the flexible contract and veteran age of Casey, nabbing another potential blue-chip player on the defensive interior should not be dismissed.
Auburn's Brown was considered a ‘slam-dunk’ top-10 pick at the conclusion of the 2019 college football season. However, the pre-draft process has not been kind for Brown as questions surrounding his pass-rushing upside, on top of a poor showing at the Combine, have drawn some to question his value in a pass-happy league.
Brown is incredible against the run and possesses excellent size and power, but some question the twitch and true athleticism to be a dominating player against the pass at the NFL level.
Not many question Kinlaw’s upside. A massive player with athleticism and twitch to harass the quarterback, the South Carolina product is more tools than polish in comparison to Brown.
Kinlaw has the overall package to be a special player in the NFL because not many players his size and strength can move like him as was evident in his dominating Senior Bowl practices, but after pulling out of the event due to knee tendinitis that also kept him from testing at the NFL Combine, it is fair to question the risk in drafting such a big player with knee concerns this early into their career. Especially with the fact that with the current pandemic there are no pre-draft team visits in which organizations can do their own medical checks on a player.
Projecting Where Brown or Kinlaw Would Fit
While both Brown and Kinlaw are versatile DL that can play a multitude of different techniques in different personnel packages, in my opinion, Brown would play nose in base as well as the 1- or 3-technique in sub-packages, whereas Kinlaw would play more of a 3- or 4-tech defensive end role in base and able to play any alignment inside in sub.
I would envision Brown eating into most of Purcell’s snaps whereas Kinlaw would eat into most of Harris’ snaps. If that were the case, it is entirely feasible the Broncos could move on from either player as the team trims down to the final roster — if Brown or Kinlaw ends up as the pick at 15.
That may seem far-fetched this soon after Denver secured the return of both Harris and Purcell, but one simply has to look back to the last training camp to find such an example for the Broncos. After retaining Zach Kerr in the 2019 offseason on a two-year, $5 million dollar contract, the Broncos cut him before the season-opener.
While moving on from Kerr last offseason only cost the Broncos $600k in dead cap, compared to the $2.5M for Harris, Purcell’s deal has zero dead cap given the specificity of his contract as a restricted free agent with a second-round tender placed on him.
Bottom Line
Elway has done a rather splendid job of attacking the Broncos’ primary needs heading into the draft. With the team’s largest remaining weaknesses being offensive line, wide receiver, and cornerback which align perfectly with the strength of the 2020 draft class, the Broncos have a very good chance of landing great value in April where most of their picks could land a player of value and need on the board.
Adding Harris means that the Broncos are fine on the D- line for 2020, but that doesn’t mean anyone should outright dismiss the possibility of Brown or Kinlaw at 15. In a perfect world, one of the top OTs or WRs falls to 15, but that is impossible to predict. It does seem likely Denver will be aggressive in an attempt to move up from 15 but there are no guarantees.
If either Brown or Kinlaw are the BPA when Denver is on the clock at 15, Elway should make the pick and not think twice (unless of course there is an enticing trade-down option). Either would give Fangio another potential blue-chip player for the defense and help the Broncos win consistently upfront without having to send extra rushers, which is Fangio's ultimate objective.
It's hard to say what the Broncos are going to do in the first round this season. Could Denver trade up? trade down?
How on earth will the board fall if Denver stands pat and picks at 15? That remains to be seen.
If Denver does stay at 15 and one of Kinlaw or Brown is still on the board, odds are they are truly the BPA. If so, they very likely should be the pick for the Broncos.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
