Skip to main content

The start of the 2020 NFL league year is less than a month away. It's certainly an exciting time for Denver Broncos fans, with the team projected to have $62 million in space before making any roster cuts.

The Broncos have been linked to multiple players, whether they are unrestricted free agents, street free agents or players who might go on the trading block. Broncos fans will debate as to who does or doesn't make sense to acquire, but they should all bear in mind that, in many cases, the Broncos will have to pay market price for many players they want to sign in free agency.

I've previously talked about the smartest ways to approach free agency, but let's consider what the market is likely to be for each position, other than quarterback (which I've discussed in great detail).

The Broncos have been linked to wide receivers, cornerbacks and off-ball linebackers in the rumor mill who are set to become free agents or may go on the trading block. Among Denver's own free agents will come the questions about offensive line, safety, and interior defenders.

We already have two examples of what players at these positions may command. The Broncos have been linked to exploring a trade for Detroit Lions' CB Darius Slay, with a rumor that he could seek $15M per year in an extension. Elsewhere, the Arizona Cardinals extended OT D.J. Humphries, paying him $15M per year on a three-year deal.

Those numbers make it easy to see that you aren't going to get a lot of players at discount prices, unless they are street free agents who were cut for skill reasons — though it's possible you could get aging players (we're talking those who are at least 35 years old and truly passing their prime) for lower prices. But if you are looking for talented players in their prime to build around QB Drew Lock, you're going to have to pay market price.

Let's look at the positions the Broncos could potentially explore in free agency and what the prices are likely to be.

Wide Receiver

The Atlanta Falcons gave Julio Jones a three-year extension for $66M last August, which re-set the market at the position. But two younger players, Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas, signed for less, though neither came cheap, with Hill getting $18M APY and Thomas getting $19.25M APY.

Among pending free agents, Amari Cooper is the one to keep an eye on. At this time, teams will have the option of putting a franchise tag on one player and a transition tag on one player, and Cooper is projected to get the transition tag from the Cowboys. But if the CBA is extended before the start of the league year, Cooper will absolutely hit the open market, because the Cowboys have reserved the franchise tag for Dak Prescott.

Cooper could very well be seeking to break the $20M APY mark, which means that other receivers who aren't as talented will push for deals that, while for less money, still represent big money. Consider that the Chiefs gave Sammy Watkins a three-year, $48M deal just two seasons ago and ask yourself what somebody like Robby Anderson will want.

There's also the chance that receivers such as Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett and Nelson Agholor could get overpaid, even if they haven't proven themselves as top options. The same could apply to older receivers such as A.J. Green and Emmanuel Sanders.

In other words, expect to see a number of receivers get contracts that reach $16M APY or more. If you are really set on getting a receiver in free agency, you may want to wait until the market settles down — or you could explore trading for Stefon Diggs, as long as he doesn't insist on getting his current contract renegotiated.

Offensive Line

The Humphries contract hasn't just set the bar for left tackles, but for offensive linemen in general. It used to be that left tackles commanded the premium money, but that has switched to whoever is deemed the best offensive lineman to hit the open market. Thus, the prices of right tackles, guards and centers have increased.

This is important when it comes to Connor McGovern. The top centers make $10M APY or more, so if you want him back that badly, you better be prepared to pay. The same holds true if you go after Graham Glasgow, who is arguably the best center set to hit free agency. Even somebody like Ben Garland could cash in based on his play when he took over for the injured Weston Richburg.

Switch over to guard and it's not going to get any cheaper. Recent deals have seen guards surpass $13M APY. That's something to keep in mind if you want to chase after Brandon Scherff, the biggest name among right guards, or the more notable names among left guards such as Daryl Williams and Joe Thuney.

And then there's offensive tackle — with Humphries getting $15M APY, imagine what Anthony Castonzo will command. The same will hold true for right tackles hitting free agency, in which it won't surprise me to see a couple surpass Ja'Wuan James and his $12.75M APY. After all, Lane Johnson recently got $18M APY in an extension.

The market is also something to keep in mind regarding Garett Bolles, whom the Broncos must make a decision about his fifth-year option. It's not clear how much that will be, but the market for offensive linemen will be a factor into the Broncos' decision. If prices go up a lot, the Broncos may be more inclined to exercise the option than they might otherwise.

Regardless, if you want to chase offensive linemen in free agency, expect to pay at least $10M APY for a center and at least $12M APY for a guard. Bargains aren't going to be so easily found.

Interior D-Line

Derek Wolfe and Shelby Harris are both about to hit the open market. The 3-4 defensive end is the best measure of what their market will be, though I doubt them or anyone else will approach the $22.5M APY that Aaron Donald is getting.

Some might have a hard time believing that these players will even approach the money J.J. Watt received years ago (he got $16.6M APY). But a more recent extension for Jurrell Casey paid him $15.1M APY, which may set the bar for what 3-4 defensive ends will command.

Along with Harris, there's Vernon Butler and Leonard Williams, who could both try to surpass Casey. Michael Brockers, who is 30 years old, might try to catch Casey, but he may have to come in a bit lower. 

Still, it's hard to see Brockers willing to take less than the $11M APY from his previous deal. This is why you can expect Wolfe to not accept less than the $9.175M APY he got on his last deal — and why $10M APY is more than fair.

No matter who you want to sign, don't think you're going to get a good player to take less money than what Wolfe got in his previous deal. You won't have to re-set the market (which means approaching Aaron Donald money) but you won't get a good player for cheap, either.

What happens next for the Broncos in free agency & the draft? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Off-ball Linebacker

Last season, the market got reset with C.J. Mosley and Kwon Alexander leading the way at $17M APY and $13.5M APY, respectively. Anthony Barr almost took a big contract from the Jets, but opted to stay with the Vikings, though that deal wasn't cheap at $13.5M APY Then along came Bobby Wagner, who really set the bar high at $18M APY.

The Broncos have been linked to Cleveland's Joe Schobert, but how high do they want to go? It wouldn't surprise me if Schobert at least tries to surpass Alexander and he might try to push close to Mosley's deal. 

Cory Littleton is also certain to seek big money. And it wouldn't surprise if Jamie Collins, after bouncing back on a one-year deal with the Patriots, hopes to get that final big payday.

There will be plenty of options for the Broncos to consider, but that doesn't mean they'll get a bargain. After what happened in 2019, off-ball linebacker is going to command more money than before. Once again, don't expect to find a good player at a bargain price.

Cornerback

If you wonder why Darius Slay would want $15M APY in an extension or why Chris Harris, Jr. intends to bet on himself after turning down $12M APY in an extension from the Broncos, you only need look at what happened with Xavien Howard, who got $15M APY in an extension from the Dolphins during the 2019 season.

There are going to be plenty of corners hitting the open market and many will hope to reset the market. That could certainly be true of Byron Jones, who might be the best overall talent in the group. But the same could be said about Eli Apple, Trae Waynes, Brian Poole, Logan Ryan, Bradley Roby and James Bradberry.

This is not a year in which the Broncos will be able to get a quality cornerback for cheap. After safeties reset their market last year (we'll get to that position in a minute), corners will look to do the same. Expect plenty of players to get deals at $15M APY or more.

It's not hard to see that $12M APY for Harris is actually a fine deal for the Broncos, because it comes in below what the market is likely to command — and while Harris wasn't as good in 2019 and he has been in other years, he's still a good player. But whatever the Broncos decide to do in free agency, know this; the best cornerbacks aren't going to come cheap.

Safety

This was another position in which the market got reset in 2019. Earl Thomas, Tryann Mathieu and Landon Collins all surpassed $13.75M APY. Then extensions came for Kevin Byard and Eddie Jackson, both passing $14M APY.

Now comes Justin Simmons, who is an unrestricted free agent and likely to get the franchise tag, unless he and the Broncos come to terms on an extension soon. I have Simmons slotted at $14.8M APY, but I could see the argument for $15M APY.

You say that's too much? Better be prepared to pay it, whether that's Simmons or somebody else. 

Players ranging from Vonn Bell to Anthony Harris to Jimmie Ward to Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to even Devin McCourty (even if he's 33 years old) will be looking to cash in on the new market for the position.

As with off-ball linebacker, the days of safeties coming in on bargain deals are fading away. If you want good talent, it won't come cheap.

Boiling it Down

If you want me to sum up what I expect each position to command in free agency, whether or not the Broncos need to sign somebody in free agency, here's what I expect the biggest names to command at the minimum in a new deal.

Quarterback: $30M APY

Running Back: $10M APY

Wide Receiver: $16M APY

Tight End: $9M APY

Offensive Tackle: $16M APY

Offensive Guard: $12M APY

Center: $10M APY

Interior Defender: $15M APY

Edge Rusher: $19M APY

Off-Ball Linebacker: $14M APY

Cornerback: $15M APY

Safety: $14M APY

What it Means for the Broncos

Denver can still look for value, but they need to focus their priorities on which players they consider worth those top prices, then go from there.

I worked one model in which the Broncos would get Simmons extended, Byron Jones and Schobert signed, and got Wolfe on a reasonable deal. That allows the Broncos to keep two of their own, acquire two others, and still have space available for value signings, which could come from street free agents or depth players who don't find teams in the first couple of weeks of free agency.

The trick is to focus on who you really want and ask yourself this question: Is the player really worth top money? 

For elite players, it's yes. For good players, it might be yes. For average players, it's better to wait and not get caught up in the frenzy.

So far, GM John Elway has made it clear he wants Simmons back, so you know he's getting top money. Otherwise, Elway isn't tipping his hand that much — and when it comes to unrestricted free agents in 2019 who didn't finish with the Broncos, he can't say anything at this point. But it wouldn't surprise me to see him pay top money to at least one free agent from another team.

Just remember that the market for players is trending higher. It's fine to go out and explore free agency, but that comes with a cost. Understanding what the market is for players will help you understand what that cost is.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle