Predicting Justin Simmons' Contract Value as Broncos Approach Franchise Tag Deadline
An important date approaches as we enter the summer months. July 15 is the deadline for NFL players under the franchise or transition tag to sign long-term extensions with their respective teams.
That means, in the coming weeks, you will be hearing a lot more about the status of Denver Broncos' safety Justin Simmons, who received the franchise tag.
Simmons has yet to sign the tag, which would fully guarantee him $11.4 million if he were to sign it today. But as we've seen in the past, the Broncos under GM John Elway have gotten extensions done with every player who got the franchise tag.
It's true that most of those extensions were finalized on the last day, but they got done. As for why it takes so long, negotiations sometimes take a while, but as Andrew Brandt has said so many times, "Deadlines spur action."
So the important question to ask isn't if Simmons will sign an extension — I have every reason to believe a deal will get done. The real question to ask is how much that extension will be.
The Safety Market
In 2019, the safety market was re-set, in which three players got sizable contracts: Landon Collins, Tyrann Mathieu and Earl Thomas, while several others signed deals that were a little higher than previous years, such as Kareem Jackson. Then, when training camp got underway, Kevin Byard got extended, and after the season, the same happened with Eddie Jackson — both for deals that raised the bar a bit.
Thus far in the 2020 offseason, no safety has re-set the market. Simmons and Anthony Harris are the two who got franchised. It's possible both could raise the bar a bit more. But the question, again, is how much?
To understand that, let's take a look at the contracts that the five highest-paid safeties got, in terms of average salary per year, full guarantees, total guarantees and cash flow.
Earl Thomas: Four years, $13.75M APY, $32M gtd, $32M fully gtd
Thomas will collect the $32M in full guarantees from the Ravens in the first two years of the deal. The remaining $23M comes in the final two years of his deal. It's a solid contract from a cash flow standpoint — if Thomas plays out three years of the deal, he'll collect $43M, or 78% of the total contract. But if he's cut after 2020, he only collects 58 percent of the total amount.
Tyrann Mathieu: Three years, $14M APY, $26.8M gtd, $26.8M fully gtd
The contract Mathieu has with the Chiefs will pay him the fully guaranteed money in the first two years, with $14.5M remaining in 2021. He'll collect 63% of the total contract in the first two years, meaning he'll get more of the total than Thomas after two years. Obviously, if he stays with the Chiefs in 2021, he'll collect every penny of the contract. However, Mathieu got less in full guarantees than Thomas did.
Landon Collins: Six years, $14M APY, $44.5M gtd, $31.8M fully gtd.
When the Redskins announced the signing of Collins in 2019, many thought he was getting a great deal. However, Collins took slightly less in full guarantees than Thomas did, though the total guarantees were higher. Collins collected $15.8M in the first year of the deal, then received a $6M option bonus for 2020 and will get a $10M base salary, thus accounting for the full guarantees in the first two years.
He can collect $13M in 2021, which accounts for the remainder of the guarantees. But over the first three years of the contract, the $44.5M represents just 53% of the total contract for $84M. Thus, it's not as good of a deal for Collins as it first appears, because Mathieu and Thomas would collect more of their total sums for playing three years than Collins will.
Kevin Byard: Five years, $14.1M APY, $30.8M gtd, $19.6M fully gtd.
Byard's case is different because he had one year left on his rookie contract, which paid him a $2M base salary. Thus, he collected a $9M signing bonus in what could be called "year zero" of the extension. He will get a base salary of $8.6M and the Titans fully guaranteed his 2019 base salary, so of the full guarantees, $17.6M was new money.
His $11.2M salary in 2021 is injury-only guaranteed, so that means in the first two years of the actual extension (after 'year zero'), he's getting $21.8M. That leaves nearly $40M in years 2022 to 2024, accounting for 56.3 percent of the $70.5M total sum of the extension. Byard's contract is an example of why you have to be careful when looking at the numbers — if he's cut after 2021, he loses out on a good chunk of the total sum of the contract.
Eddie Jackson: Five years, $14.6M APY, $33M gtd, $22M fully gtd.
Like Byard, Jackson had a year left on his rookie deal when the Bears extended him. As a fourth-round pick, Jackson was certain to receive an escalator in his 2020 base salary, given he has played a lot of snaps during his career. The Bears thus gave him a $1M fully guaranteed base salary in addition to the $12M signing bonus.
He will collect $22M in 2020 and 2021, with a chance to collect $11M in injury-only guarantees in 2022. The money he could collect in the first three years of the contract represents 56.5% of the total contract value of $58.4M. Once again, we have a contract in which the player won't collect more than 60 percent of the total sum if he's cut after three years.
What It Means for Simmons
It's easy to look at the average salary per year for safeties and think that's what Simmons should exceed. In reality, he and his agent are likely to focus on fully guaranteed money and, if they do a good job of negotiating, a good cash flow to the contract that lets Simmons have a chance to collect as much money as possible over three years.
I think it's safe to say that Simmons won't get a two-year deal, which is why I bring up the three-year mark for cash flow. I also doubt Simmons will get a three-year deal because the Broncos will want to keep him under contract for longer than that. Simmons won't turn 27 until November, so a three-year deal means he would be eligible for free agency again when he's just 29.
Therefore, a four-year or five-year deal is what Simmons will likely get. Under a four-year deal, Simmons and his agent should push to get at least two-thirds (66 percent) of the money into the first three years of the deal. For a five-year deal, they should aim for 60 percent.
As for fully guaranteed money, Simmons and his agent should be pushing to exceed the $32M that Earl Thomas received. That, along with a strong cash flow in the first three years, are better options than trying to get $15M APY while taking less in full guarantees and the possibility of losing out on more than 40 percent of the total sum if Simmons doesn't play out the full contract.
$14M-$14.5M Range
It's my belief that Simmons will settle in at about $14M to $14.5M APY, but will go slightly higher than Thomas in full guarantees — $34M to $35M seems about right. I would expect the Broncos to try to keep him for five years, with the full guarantees in the first two years, then with injury-only guaranteed money in the third year, which would likely give Simmons the most in total guarantees, exceeding the $44.5M that Landon Collins received.
Given that safety contracts didn't rise that much in this offseason, I doubt you'll see record-setting numbers in every aspect for Simmons — certainly not ones that truly re-set the market. But he'll certainly be rewarded regardless of what aspects his deal raises the bar.
It's hard to argue he hasn't earned it, though. Between his play on the field and his high character off the field, Simmons has demonstrated he deserves a cornerstone of the Broncos defense for years to come.
I have no doubts the Broncos will get a deal done with Simmons, even if it comes close to the deadline. All that remains to be seen is what the final numbers will be.
