Examining How Much of a Raise DL Shelby Harris Will Command from Broncos in 2021
Shelby Harris has been a favorite among Denver Broncos fans. He's one of those feel-good stories, a player who bounced around the league for several seasons, signed a futures contract with the Broncos, then emerged into a quality contributor.
Last season, I was among those who thought Harris would cash in on free agency, but the big offers never came. He returned to the Broncos on a one-year deal worth up to $4.25M — not the significant raise he may have expected.
This season, he's had to step into a larger role because of injuries to other players — most notably Jurrell Casey — and has risen to the occasion. Some might say his absence this past week against the Falcons was one of the reasons the Broncos struggled defensively.
The question now is this: Will Harris finally cash in on free agency and, if so, does it happen with the Broncos?
Let's examine some evidence to see what Harris might get in a contract if the Broncos or another team think he's worth being paid as a starter.
Broncos Usually Keep One Vet Around
First, the Broncos have typically kept a veteran defensive lineman on the roster, at a salary that puts him at second tier in terms of salary. This isn't unusual, because most 3-4 defensive linemen don't get paid top salaries (though there is one exception I will get to later).
The Broncos once had Derek Wolfe under a contract that paid him $9.15M in average salary per year. After Wolfe left in free agency to sign with the Ravens, the Broncos acquired Casey from the Titans, who was set to make $11.5M in salary this season.
Casey's season ended early because of injuries and forced the Broncos to rely on Harris more often. It's possible the Broncos could Casey after this season to save $11.8M in cash and cap space.
If the Broncos do go that route, might they keep Harris as their veteran defensive lineman? It's possible, but not guaranteed.
How Much Money for Harris?
First, we need to consider how much Harris is likely to get in a contract.
Let's get one thing out of the way: Harris isn't going to re-set the market for interior defensive linemen. The highest-paid lineman, Aaron Donald, is getting $22.5M in APY salary. Donald may be a 3-4 defensive lineman, but he's an elite player and, furthermore, was playing in a 4-3 scheme when he originally signed his contract.
Nor is Harris going to approach the money that other top-paid defensive linemen get. The likes of DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones, Kenny Clark, and Grady Jarrett play in 4-3 schemes. The interior D-line market favors 4-3 players much more than it does 3-4 players.
What about 3-4 defensive linemen? Though he's not a true nose tackle, such players get less money than those, like Harris, who can line up at the 3-tech on most downs, with the occasional play at 0-tech on passing downs.
Right now, J.J. Watt is the highest-paid 3-4 defensive linemen at $16.7M APY, but he was an elite player when he signed his deal. Leonard Williams is playing in a 3-4 scheme under the franchise tag of $16.1M and is likely to cash in on free agency in 2021, even with the cap expected to fall to as low as $178M.
However, the next tier of defensive linemen has some players that Harris might be better compared. Calais Campbell, for example, gets $10M APY on his current deal with the Ravens. DaQuan Jones, whose deal with the Titans expires after this season, earned $7M APY on his deal.
If Harris is going to get more offers on the open market, it's likely those deals will come in at no more than $10M APY, given his age and the fact that, even with his good play this season, he doesn't play a ton of snaps (he's played 52.6 percent of defensive snaps in the games he's been active).
Though Harris won't be in line for as big of a payday as some may think, I believe it's safe he won't be taking a $3.5M with incentives that can push the deal to more than $4M like he did this past offseason.
What if Harris isn't Retained?
It's either keeping Casey, looking at other unrestricted free agents, or hoping that a street free agent is available who can help out.
While the Broncos will have Mike Purcell, Dre'Mont Jones, and McTelvin Agim back next season, they may not be prepared to have Agim start in 2021. And because Purcell is on a cheap contract, Jones still has two years left on his rookie deal and Agim has three, the Broncos can afford to add a veteran lineman, assuming Casey isn't retained.
I've already mentioned Leonard Williams, but there's likely to be a bidding war for his services. Don't count on the Broncos pursuing him.
Along with the aforementioned Da'Quan Jones, Wolfe will be a free agent again, along with Roy Robertson-Harris of the Chicago Bears, who has played for Vic Fangio before. Ndamukong Suh will also be a free agent, but he'll be 35 years old and not likely pursued. The rest are either aging players or younger players who have had to take one-year, low-cost deals.
In other words, it's not an attractive market as far as unrestricted free agents go. It remains to be seen who becomes a street free agent, but there's no guarantee a player will be available who will fit what the Broncos want and be willing to play for a team that hasn't proven it's a true playoff contender.
Bottom Line
Unless such a street free agent becomes available, the Broncos' decision is clear: Either keep Casey for another year and hope he can bounce back from injury, cut him and bring back Harris at least for another year, or roll the dice that another unrestricted free agent can flourish under Bill Kollar.
If the Broncos go with Harris, it makes sense to pay him close to what Casey would get, meaning you pay him $10M in 2021. The Broncos could either do a one-year deal again, or go with a two-year deal that makes it easy to cut him if his play declines.
If the Broncos opt for a two-year deal, Harris and his agent should insist on a roster bonus for 2022, due no later than five days after the start of the league year. This forces the Broncos to cut him early in free agency if they don't want to keep him, rather than wait until after the draft or later, when offers for Harris are going to be much lower than they might be otherwise.
While I don't expect Harris to break the bank big time, I think he'll be in line for more money than he got in 2020. The only question is whether the Broncos are the team that pays him.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
