Here's How Broncos Will Know if Building Around Drew Lock Should Remain Top 2021 Objective
Earlier this week, I broke down why the Denver Broncos shouldn't pass up on Trevor Lawrence if the team finishes with the No. 1 overall pick. It's too risky to pass up on such a coveted QB prospect at No. 1 overall.
But what happens if the Broncos don't finish No. 1 overall?
To be clear, I am not insisting the Broncos trade for the No. 1 overall pick — and chances are such a trade isn't going to happen. Therefore, don't worry about that discussion.
Instead, the focus of this article is on what the Broncos should do if they don't land the No. 1 overall pick on the draft. What the team should do depends on the following:
• What their overall record is for the 2020 season, which impacts draft position.
• How Drew Lock fared in the games he started, not just wins but overall play.
• What the QB class looks like at the point the Broncos draft in the first round.
Let's break down each point.
Overall Record and Draft Position
The Broncos have three more games before their bye week against the Patriots, the Dolphins and the Chiefs. It's likely Lock won't start against the Patriots, meaning the Dolphins game is the earliest he's likely to be back on the field.
However, the Broncos could opt to keep him out of the lineup until after the bye week. If so, his first start would be November 8 against the Falcons.
Looking ahead, the Broncos have a few winnable games but not a lot, given the number of injuries they've had. I think the Dolphins and Panthers are teams that the Broncos should be able to beat, though.
There's a good chance Denver can split with the Raiders and the Chargers, too. Those teams have been inconsistent and the Broncos have shown they can beat them under Vic Fangio.
The Patriots game is a 'maybe' if they face Brian Hoyer at quarterback, but not a given. Another 'maybe' is the Falcons game, because the Falcons haven't been good at protecting leads.
Even if Brett Rypien starts until the bye, I think the Broncos can win at least one more game. After the bye, I think Denver can win at least three games, meaning 5-11 is the most likely record. I think 6-10 is doable if certain things go the Broncos' way.
Looking solely at the record, if Lock returns for the Dolphins game and the Broncos go 4-7, I think the team goes on building around him in 2021. If he returns for the Falcons game and the Broncos go 3-6 in the remaining nine games, I reach the same conclusion.
I'm definitely building around Lock if the Broncos go 5-6 if he's back for the Dolphins or 4-5 if he's back for the Falcons. If the Broncos manage to go 6-5 in the first scenario or 5-4 in the second, then you know you have to build around Lock.
So what if the Broncos win fewer than four games if Lock returns for the Dolphins, or fewer than three games if he returns for the Falcons? This brings me to the second point.
Understanding What Matters in a QB
It's easy to look at wins and losses and think that's all that matters in evaluating a quarterback. And, yes, the Broncos have had a lot of injuries that have made it difficult to keep a competitive team together.
When I bring up the wins earlier, I'm keeping in mind those injuries on both sides of the ball, meaning if Lock can get a winning record when he returns, you know he's the guy to build around because he's doing it despite all the injuries.
However, that doesn't mean a losing record means you don't build around Lock. Instead, you need to look at what he is doing on the field that isn't simply measured by wins and losses.
How well does Lock read the field? Does he try to force too much or is he patient to let things develop? How well does he extend the play when necessary? How quickly does he get rid of the ball?
The answers to those questions explain why the Broncos were quick to pull Jeff Driskel and roll with Rypien. Driskel was bad at reading the field, extending plays, and getting rid of the ball quickly. Rypien fared better in those areas.
You also want to know how well Lock does in picking up blitzes and making pre-snap adjustments. Again, that's something Driskel was terrible at doing. Rypien did a better job of it, just not at the level that proves he's starting material.
This means that in order to ascertain whether Lock is the guy to build around, you have to watch the film and see how good he really is. Good quarterbacks master what they can control and don't use the performance of other players as an excuse.
I understand why fans complain about mitigating factors such as receivers, offensive lines, and defenses, but for coaches and general managers to believe whether they can build around the QB, they need to identify if the QB is controlling what he can control.
If Lock does a good job at controlling what he can control, the arguments for building around him gain ground. If he's not good in that department, the team needs to consider other options.
Looking at the 2021 QB Class
I've already talked about Lawrence, but who else is in the 2021 quarterback field? At this time, Ohio State's Justin Fields looks like he'll be a prospect to take in the top-5 of the draft.
After Fields, though, there are quarterbacks who aren't considered worth a top-10 pick, but might be worth taking later. Georgia's Jamie Newman and Texas A&M's Kellen Mond are two QBs who could go off the board late in the first, but might be better to take in the second round.
Otherwise, Day 2 of the draft is the earliest you take a QB. That doesn't mean the Broncos rule out those QBs, but it does mean that, if they draft in the top-10 and both Lawrence and Fields are gone, they should be patient and let the board fall to them.
If a good QB prospect falls to them on Day 2, they need to consider that player. At the very least, they would have another young QB who can add to the competition and who might be able to step in if Lock doesn't improve in 2021.
Even though the Broncos have Rypien in the fold, it's a good idea to have the competition for the backup job, should they settle on Lock as their guy after the 2020 season ends.
Bottom Line
How should the Broncos approach Lock and the next draft? Let's summarize how it should look.
• If Denver finishes No. 1 overall in the draft, take Lawrence and don't debate other scenarios. Lawrence is too good of a talent to pass up.
• If Denver finishes second to fifth overall in the draft, it has to consider Fields if he's there, unless Lock has shown he's doing a good job controlling what he can control. If Fields isn't there, then go with another player, but be prepared to look at QBs on Day 2 if you have doubts about Lock.
• If Denver finishes sixth to 10th overall in the draft, it's more likely than not that the evidence favors building around Lock, so move forward with that. You might consider a QB on Day 2 if a good prospect falls to you, though.
• If the Broncos finish 11th or lower overall in the draft, then you're building around Lock and you aren't debating other ideas. You're probably okay with keeping Rypien as the backup, but you could take a chance on a QB on Day 3 if the board falls that way.
Keep in mind, this is about where the Broncos finish in the draft, not whether they trade up or down. Obviously, they aren't trading their first-rounder during the season. Therefore, where the Broncos draft is going to be based on where they finish in the draft order after the season ends.
We won't have all the answers until Lock returns to the lineup and the season ends, but once those answers are ascertained, the Broncos will know what must be done.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
