How Broncos' 2021 Cap Decisions Could be Impacted by NFL's Expected Revenue Drop
With questions surrounding how the NFL will approach its 2020 season, given concerns about the spread of COVID-19, some discussions have turned to what that means for the salary cap if revenues indeed drop.
While indications are that the NFL intends to play games in some capacity, the options discussed have ranged from holding games in empty stadiums to restrictions on how many tickets will be sold. If some restrictions do happen, league and team revenues will decline.
I will refer everyone to an article by Over the Cap's Jason Fitzgerald about the NFL and NFLPA planning to negotiate how to handle salary cap increases in the future, given the potential for revenue losses with limited or possibly no fans at games.
The only thing I will add is, even if the NFL allows fans to attend games in-person, there's still the possibility that fans may not want to attend in person, which could still impact revenues.
But that discussion aside, it begs the question; how might a decline in revenues impact the Denver Broncos' decisions regarding their payroll and salary cap in future seasons?
Going back to Fitzgerald's piece, he discusses how the NFL can lock the cap at a certain level for 2021 but allow for a little wage growth. That should mean the Broncos (and other teams) won't be as impacted as much as they could be.
How it Could Affect Broncos
Focusing on the Broncos, some might question whether the team might cut players with bigger contracts or cap hits. Players such as LB Von Miller, CB A.J. Bouye, DB Kareem Jackson, and DL Jurrell Casey have high cap hits with no guaranteed money in 2021. OT Ja'Wuan James has a high cap hit as well, with $5 million in injury-only guarantees.
The Broncos could save cap space and cash by moving on from any of those players. However, I suspect they will only do so if their play in 2020 doesn't justify the cap hit. That's been typical for the Broncos in past seasons — they keep veterans around as long as they play at a level that justifies the cap hit.
I don't think it should impact the Broncos' decisions about potential free agents. For example, LB Alexander Johnson and RB Phillip Lindsay should still be tendered as restricted free agents, so long as they play well in 2020.
As for unrestricted free agents, the Broncos don't have any who are, at this time, considered high priorities to retain. OT Garett Bolles might become a priority with a good 2020 season, but there's no guarantee. LB Todd Davis and K Brandon McManus have played well but aren't 'must retain' players.
Furthermore, what could happen with a slowed growth rate for the salary cap is that player salaries won't rise as fast. In other words, chances are you won't see a lot of players re-set the market, except perhaps at quarterback.
That's to the Broncos' advantage, because they may not have to pay as much as expected for free agents they want to sign in future. It's still possible to see slight salary growth, but I suspect we won't see market-busting deals for the majority of positions.
Bottom Line
Of course, it remains to be seen what happens in the coming weeks. I will say that I don't believe the worst-case scenario of the NFL canceling its season will happen. But it's possible there could be some adjustments to games and fan attendance.
Thus, whatever adjustments do happen for the 2020 season, I would expect the NFL and NFLPA to find a way to work through any revenue reductions. And that should mean the Broncos shouldn't have to make too many adjustments to their salary cap approach or to their team spending.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
