What Mahomes' 10-Year Mega-Deal Means for Drew Lock & Broncos
On Monday, the Kansas City Chiefs reportedly agreed to terms on a 10-year extension with Patrick Mahomes that'll keep the Super Bowl MVP quarterback locked down through 2031. When it comes to the NFL, it's likely to be an unprecedented deal.
While the exact value of Mahomes' deal is currently unknown, those details will eventually be made public. ESPN's Adam Schefter is reporting that the deal exceeds $400M.
The MLB's Mike Trout currently owns the richest athlete contract of all-time (12 years, $426.5M. Some pundits are estimating Mahomes' deal exceeds that figure.
The Chiefs have Mahomes under contract for the next 12 years now and with that big of a nut to absorb on the salary cap, regardless of how it's structured, is going to affect the team's ability to maneuver in free agency. Meanwhile, what does Mahomes' mega-deal mean for Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos?
The Window Opens Wider
Firstly, it signals that the Broncos' window of opportunity is wide open. With Lock on a rookie second-round contract for the next three seasons (counting 2020), the Broncos are in a fortuitous position. GM John Elway can invest resources into weapons and defensive pieces to complement Lock while he's on a cost-controlled contract.
The Chiefs are always going to be dangerous so long as Mahomes is upright, and the deals the team currently has on the books with guys like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will have a lingering effect for the next two years in all likelihood, but the onus is on Lock and company to strike now while the iron is hot. The Broncos have to leap forward now if they're ever going to threaten the Chiefs for AFC West supremacy.
Since 2012, we've seen several NFL teams win the Super Bowl with young, cost-controlled quarterbacks. The GMs of those teams were able to invest cap dollars into other positions that allowed their rosters to be uber-competitive before the harsh demand of paying a franchise quarterback became a reality. Baltimore, Seattle, Philadelphia, and Kansas City are examples of recent World Champions under this model, while Conference champs like San Francisco (Colin Kaepernick), Carolina (Cam Newton), and the L.A. Rams (Jared Goff) at least got to the big dance.
This same opportunity now knocks for the Broncos. It's carpe diem for Lock and company.
Harbinger of Things to Come
The Chiefs now have a problem. But it's a good one to have. For the next 12 years, that front office will have to balance the demands of paying Mahomes' lucrative contract with that of maintaining a competitive roster. It's not impossible but it significantly complicates roster management.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have the most important position on the field solved for the next decade. Can the Broncos say the same?
Lock hasn't been able to absolutely prove that he is the Broncos' guy for the next decade-plus because he's only received five starting opportunities. But based on what Lock displayed as a rookie, put it this way; the Broncos are very confident that they've found their answer at QB for the long-term.
Mahomes' deal is likely to re-set the market, which means that, if Lock can truly establish himself as one of the NFL's top young quarterbacks, he could be staring down the barrel of a similar deal three or four years from now. Before you say, 'Well, Mahomes has proven he's worth that money! Lock has not.' Consider this.
Very few people believe Dak Prescott is worth the $35M annually he's about to get from the Dallas Cowboys, and many of my colleagues from around the NFL don't think he would find another team willing to give him that on the open market. So why is Dallas going to do it?
Because when it comes to quarterback economics, when supply fails to meet the demand, teams don't have much choice but to pony up the coin and consolidate resources on the best available option. It's the 'love the one you're with' doctrine.
Now, there is the outside chance that this pandemic could affect salary cap assets for the next few years, and thus, instead of quarterback salaries continuing to rise and re-set almost every year, perhaps those contract values remain static, or at worst, drop somewhat by the time Lock's turn at the money table comes. I doubt that, though.
Mahomes' new deal doesn't really tell us anything about Lock's future that we didn't already know. If Lock plays well and proves over a multi-year sample size to be a franchise QB, he'll get paid as such when his contract comes due.
Again, though, that's why the Broncos have to capitalize on this moment. The team has absolutely stockpiled the skill-position arsenal around Lock and beefed up the interior offensive line.
With a few strategic personnel upgrades on defense, and the coaching expertise of Vic Fangio on that side of the ball, the opportunity for the Broncos to catapult themselves forward competitively hasn't ever been better. 2020 should be a year of no excuses.
Lock is loaded for bear on this hunt. And if his hunt is fruitful, odds are, untold riches for him and ungodly outlays of cash by the Broncos await.
UPDATE: The deal, per Schefter, is worth $450M, officially making Mahomes the highest-paid athlete in world history. Somewhere in the greater Denver area right now, Lock is smiling and licking his chops.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
