Predicting the 2020 Broncos: Worst- & Best-Case Scenarios for Each Position
We're entering the home stretch for training camp and, soon, it will be time for the Denver Broncos' season opener September 14 against the Tennessee Titans.
There's been plenty to like and plenty to be concerned about over the past few weeks, but it's important to remember that expectations should be tempered to a degree. From new arrivals on the roster and the coaching staff, to a different offseason workout and training camp schedule thanks to the pandemic, the Broncos might take time to find their footing.
In this series of articles, I'll be examining the different positional groups for the Broncos and looking at best- and worst-case scenarios, then conclude with the most likely scenario.
You'll find that my outlook on the Broncos doesn't assume the worst, but it also doesn't assume this team will be world beaters either. Realistically, you're going to see a team that comes along slowly, but should be playing its best ball by season's end, as was the case last year.
Keep in mind that 'best-case scenarios' are the type that are supposed to blow people away, but I don't expect them to unfold. Meanwhile, 'worst-case' are ones that are much more worrisome than some of the reports out of training camp, but while nobody can predict injuries, I'm optimistic that you won't see the worst situation always unfold.
Let's look at each positional group and predict the most likely scenario that awaits.
Quarterback
Best-case scenario: Drew Lock explodes onto the scene like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their second seasons, putting up MVP worthy numbers and leading the Broncos to the Super Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Lock never finds his rhythm, going down on the list of failed quarterback experiments since Peyton Manning retired and Broncos fans are calling for John Elway's head again.
Most likely scenario: It takes time for Lock to pin down everything with the system offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur wants to run, but he keeps working at it. His second half of the 2020 season well exceeds his first half, the Broncos post their first winning season since 2016 and push for a wild card spot.
Running Backs
Best-case scenario: Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay each surpass 1,000 yards rushing and combine for more than 100 receptions, prompting Broncos fans to demand that both backs be named to the Pro Bowl.
Worst-case scenario: Gordon misses every other game with nagging injuries, while Lindsay hits the wall because defenses focus so much on him, he gets worn down, and the Broncos have to rely far more on Royce Freeman than they want.
Most likely scenario: The two backs push each other throughout the season and turn into a quality duo. Lindsay posts a better yards-per-carry average than Gordon, but Gordon counters with more receptions. Lindsay has slightly more rushing touchdowns than Gordon, while Gordon has more receiving touchdowns. Freeman settles in as a decent third back, but no more than that.
Wide Receivers
Best-case scenario: Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler each have more than 100 receptions and combined for 30 touchdowns, with all three making the Pro Bowl and two of them earning All-Pro honors, making Broncos fans mad that the third guy got left out.
Worst-case scenario: Sutton's 2019 campaign turns into a fluke, allowing defenses to concentrate on Jeudy and render him ineffective, while Hamler struggles to get past DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick on the depth chart — and only because those two are described as, "Well, they're at least better than Hamler."
Most likely scenario: Sutton gets the most receptions of the trio and surpasses 1,000 yards, but Jeudy gets more touchdowns, also surpasses 1,000 yards, and is among the top vote-getters for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Hamler comes along slowly, but is playing well by season's end, giving the Broncos a clear No. 3 guy. Meanwhile, Hamilton settles into a depth role and makes the most of the snaps he gets.
Tight Ends
Best-case scenario: Noah Fant breaks out for 100 receptions, 1,000 yards, and 15 touchdowns, thrusting himself into the debate alongside George Kittle and Travis Kelce as to who is the best tight end in the NFL. The only reason guys like Nick Vannett and Albert Okwuegbunam don't hit those marks is because Fant is just dominating everyone.
Worst-case scenario: Fant stumbles out of the gates and never recovers, prompting Broncos fans to pine for what could have been with Devin Bush. Vannett turns out to be the team's top tight end, because every younger player fell flat.
Most likely scenario: Fant doesn't break 1,000 yards, but only because Sutton and Jeudy gets more targets. But Fant does exceed his 2019 production, particularly in the touchdown department, in which he closes in on double-digit scores. Vannett and Okwuegbunam turn out to be solid role players, but Okwuegbunam is the better of the two, to the point the Broncos believe he can be the No. 2 tight end behind Fant in 2021.
Offensive Line
Best-case scenario: The unit turns into one of the five best in the league, Dalton Risner and Graham Glasgow are first-team All-Pros, fans are demanding an extension for Garett Bolles, and Lloyd Cushenberry gets talked up as an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
Worst-case scenario: Bolles has his highest penalty tally ever, Cushenberry gets benched for Patrick Morris, Glasgow never hits his form because of his ankle sprain and Risner simply can't hold everything together, leading to Lock taking 50 sacks.
Most likely scenario: Risner pushes for a Pro Bowl bid, Glasgow gets healthier as the season progresses and brings stability, and Cushenberry is shaky at first but is in solid form in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Demar Dotson claims the starting right tackle job and is good enough for the time being, while Bolles has a solid season that makes the Broncos think about, but not necessarily offer, a one-year 'prove it again' deal for 2021.
Defensive Line
Best-case scenario: The unthinkable happens as Dre'Mont Jones breaks the 10-sack mark, with Jurrell Casey right behind him with nine. Shelby Harris sets an NFL record for tipped passes in a single season and gets talked up as the latest incarnation of J.J. Watt.
Worst-case scenario: Not a single player performs well, leading to defensive line coach Bill Kollar retiring and the Broncos parting ways with Casey, Harris, and DeMarcus Walker and starting from scratch on the line.
Most likely scenario: While none of the defensive linemen break 10 sacks, Jones does break out with seven, with Casey and Harris each getting five apiece and doing their part elsewhere, Casey in the run game and Harris in getting a few passes batted down. Rookie McTelvin Agim has a campaign similar to what Jones had in 2019, starting slowly but rising to prominence by season's end.
Rush Linebackers
Best-case scenario: Von Miller finds the fountain of youth and posts a 20-sack season, while Bradley Chubb is right behind him with 19. Fans start dreaming up scenarios can get both Miller and Chubb extended after 2021.
Worst-case scenario: Miller falls off the cliff as barely a presence in the pass rush and tops the list of Broncos' veterans to be cut in 2021. Chubb never regains his form after last season's ACL tear and Broncos fans wish they had taken all those draft picks from the Buffalo Bills back in 2018.
Most likely scenario: Chubb comes along slowly but peaks at midseason, en route to hitting double-digit sacks, allowing Miller to do the same — say, Miller posting 13 sacks while Chubb checks in with 12. Derrek Tuszka emerges into a good depth and rotational player.
Inside Linebackers
Best-case scenario: Todd Davis morphs into a good coverage linebacker and Broncos fans insist he's a priority to extend. Alexander Johnson hits levels not seen since a healthy Luke Kuechly, Mark Barron turns into a free-agent steal, and everything clicks for Josey Jewell.
Worst-case scenario: Things get worse for Davis thanks to that ankle injury, Johnson comes off as a flash in the pan, Barron is a bust even on a cheap deal and Jewell gets waived midway through the season.
Most likely scenario: Davis gets up to speed a few games into the season, though still as the good run stopper with coverage issues. Johnson improves upon his 2019 breakout campaign and there's talk about a Pro Bowl bid. Barron is good enough for certain situations and Jewell settles in as a good special teams player.
Cornerbacks
Best-case scenario: A.J. Bouye and Bryce Callahan don't just have a revival — they turn out to be the latest incarnation of the No Fly Zone, some saying they surpass Chris Harris, Jr. and Aqib Talib. Rookie Michael Ojemudia makes an immediate impact, De'Vante Bausby pushes for a Pro Bowl bid and Isaac Yiadom becomes a No. 5 cornerback who plays like a No. 2.
Worst-case scenario: Somebody steps on Callahan's foot, then the same happens to Bouye and both are never the same. Ojemudia flops, Bausby does as well and Yiadom looks like he's headed for waivers.
Most likely scenario: Though Bouye and Callahan don't bring back visions of the No Fly Zone, they become a good duo for Vic Fangio's scheme and settle fan worries about the starters. It takes time for Ojemudia to find his groove, but he figures things out by the second half of the season and fans breathe a little easier about the depth. Bausby helps out with the depth, even if it becomes clear he's not a starter, while Yiadom does enough as a depth player, even if it's clear he's not a starter, either.
Safeties
Best-case scenario: Justin Simmons has a 2020 campaign so stellar, he's the unanimous favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, and a $20M APY extension becomes reality. Kareem Jackson surpasses his 2019 campaign and Broncos fans start up talking about extending him ASAP before he raises his asking price even more in 2021.
Worst-case scenario: Not only does Simmons fail to impress to get an extension, he fails to impress to the point that Broncos fans revert from, "Elway should have extended Simmons," to, "Elway should never have tagged him to begin with." Jackson vanishes from the radar and leads the list of Broncos veterans to be cut in 2021.
Most likely scenario: Simmons turns in another quality campaign and, this time, gets a Pro Bowl nod — and that's enough to get the Broncos to push to extend him after the season and make him one of the highest-paid safeties, just not at a price that approaches $20M APY. Jackson puts in another good campaign, worthy of a Pro Bowl bid, and Trey Marshall turns out to be the guy to replace Will Parks in a depth, rotational and special teams role.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
