Predicting Which of 25 Pending Free Agents Broncos Will Retain
While the Denver Broncos have six games remaining this season, it's becoming more evident which pending free agents need to be retained and which will be allowed to move on.
The Broncos have 12 players who will be unrestricted free agents, six who will be restricted free agents, and seven soon-to-be exclusive rights free agents. Here's a refresher on each category of free agents.
Unrestricted free agents: Players with at least four accrued seasons in the NFL, who must be extended if you wish to keep them. Teams may use either the franchise tag or the transition tag to keep one unrestricted free agent.
Restricted free agents: Players with three accrued seasons, who may be given a tender at either the first-round, second-round or original-round level. Other teams may sign these players to offer sheets that, if not matched, net the team that loses the player the corresponding draft pick. Remember that the original-round tender means you get the pick for the round in which the player was taken, but if he was undrafted, you get no draft pick.
Exclusive rights free agents: Players with two accrued seasons, who may be tendered at a low-cost salary. If tendered, the player must either sign the tender or retire — he can't take any offer sheets from other teams.
Let's go over the players in each category to see what the Broncos are facing with regards to their pending free agents.
Unrestricted Free Agents
I've talked about two players who will see their current deals expire: left tackle Garett Bolles and safety Justin Simmons. After 10 games, it's become clear they are priorities to retain.
Simmons got the franchise tag from the Broncos and, as I've previously postulated, might be in line for more than $27M in fully guaranteed money. After a slow start, he has picked up his play and has shown enough that he should be part of the team's long-term plans.
Per the NFL's CBA rules regarding players on the franchise tag, the Broncos can't negotiate with Simmons until after the team plays its last game this season. Once the season ends, expect negotiations to get underway.
While the Broncos can't get into contract negotiations with Simmons for some time yet, that's not the case with Bolles. The Broncos may negotiate with Bolles right now.
While there haven't been rumblings about negotiations, it's possible the Broncos have already had some talks with his agent. If talks don't lead to an eventual extension, it's likely Bolles will get the franchise tag.
“I mean, that would be nice, but it’s not up to me," Bolles said on Tuesday. "That’s why I hired an agent, he talks to Mr. Elway. When they want to do it, they’ll do it. That’s just how I look at it. I just want to be consistent. I have to go out there and play at a high level every single week.”
Among other unrestricted free agents, there's defensive end Shelby Harris, who has played well enough to earn an extension despite missing the last three games due to COVID-19 protocol. The question, though, is whether or not the Broncos plan to retain him.
Harris' situation likely depends on what the Broncos ultimately do with Jurrell Casey, who was lost to injury after Week 2 and carries an $11.8M cap charge, or how the team views other defensive linemen that remain under contract for 2021, such as Dre'Mont Jones, McTelvin Agim, and DeShawn Williams.
Three other unrestricted free agents might have a chance to stick around. Cornerback De'Vante Bausby has bounced from the practice squad to the active roster to the Arizona Cardinals and back to the Broncos again all in this season.
Because Bausby hasn't been good on special teams, it's tough for him to catch on as a depth player. However, if the Broncos cut A.J. Bouye after the season (he carries a $13.375M cap charge in 2021), that could open the door for Bausby to come back on a short-term deal to compete for a starting job at cornerback.
Another player who has a chance to stick around is defensive end DeMarcus Walker. While he hasn't played at the level one expects from a former second-round pick, he's shown he can be an effective depth player and will likely be allowed to test the market first. Walker could be brought back on a low-cost deal if he doesn't get a good offer elsewhere.
Finally, there's off-ball linebacker and special teams maven Joseph Jones, who has stuck around because of his play in the third phase. Like last year, he'll be allowed to hit the open market, but could return on a one-year deal.
The rest of the unrestricted free agents have little-to-no chance of being retained for one reason or another including offensive tackles Elijah Wilkinson and Demar Dotson, edge rusher Jeremiah Attaochu, linebackers Mark Barron and Anthony Chickillo, and defensive lineman Sylvester Williams.
Restricted Free Agents
Off-ball linebacker Alexander Johnson and running back Phillip Lindsay are the two most notable restricted free agents. Nothing has changed with them — they should be given the second-round tender and the chance to prove they are worthy of long-term deals.
Wide receiver Tim Patrick has played well this season, but if he's tendered, his playing time could be reduced with the return of Courtland Sutton from injury. I'll talk more about this in a future article, but the Broncos may want to tender Patrick at the second-round level, then give him permission to seek a trade.
Tight end Jake Butt is also a restricted free agent. This may confuse people, given that he was drafted in 2017, but his rookie season didn't count as an accrued year. It worked like this: Because he opened training camp on the physically unable to perform list, then stayed on the PUP list to open the regular season, and then went to injured reserve, he never accrued a season.
Yes, that's a confusing rule about accrued seasons. But the bottom line is, Butt is a restricted free agent, per the CBA. However, he's not likely to be tendered and I'm not positive the Broncos will even bring him back on a one-year deal, as was the case with other RFAs.
There's a better chance that off-ball linebacker Austin Calitro could be retained, though. I don't think he gets an RFA tender, but the Broncos could sign him to a one-year deal.
Cornerback Kevin Toliver II is also a restricted free agent, who obviously won't be tendered and isn't likely to be re-signed.
Exclusive Rights Free Agents
It's usually a routine matter for teams to tender their ERFAs for two reasons. One, they're cheap, and two, they can be waived at any time without owing them money.
Sometimes ERFAs are key players, but in the majority cases, their place on the roster is to compete for depth spots, unless the team finds another player who is an upgrade.
The Broncos ERFAs are offensive tackles Calvin Anderson and Jake Rodgers, offensive guard Austin Schlottman, center Patrick Morris, wide receiver Diontae Spencer, safety Trey Marshall and defensive end Jonathan Harris.
Among these players, Harris was waived and then placed on the non-football illness list prior to the season. He may not be retained if his health concerns remain.
The other ERFAs are likely to be kept, but their roster spots aren't guarnateed. Again, the Broncos can always move on from those players if they find another player, whether in free agency or the draft, who is a better choice to compete for a depth spot.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
