Broncos' OLB Randy Gregory Ranked Among NFL's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Free-Agent Pickups by PFF
The Denver Broncos’ 2022 pass-rushing potential sits on a precarious ledge heading into April. While the Broncos now boast a pair of high-ceiling edge rushers in former fifth overall draft pick Bradley Chubb and the newly-acquired Randy Gregory, both players have an injury history that should make even the rosiest of faithful fans somewhat skeptical of how many snaps and games each defender will be available to help the team.
With Denver fielding arguably the single worst and least talented pass-rushing defense in the NFL in 2021, the dependability of Gregory and Chubb should be somewhat concerning. The scouting phrase, “The best ability is availability,” is a cliche for a reason.
After it was announced that Gregory underwent an arthroscopic scope and procedure to clean up his shoulder recently, his timeline is now up in the air for 2022. According to 9NEWS' Mike Klis, Gregory should be ready to go by the start of next season, but that's a projection and impossible to know at this point in time.
Even before this injury news was made public, Pro Football Focus listed Gregory as one of the five biggest “boom or bust” contract signings of the entire 2022 free agency cycle. Signing a five-year, $70 million contract with $28 million guaranteed, PFF stated the following on Denver’s signing:
“Gregory recorded a career-high 84.7 PFF pass-rushing grade while playing the second-most pass-rushing snaps (328) of his NFL tenure. Gregory’s career has been a well-documented roller coaster marred by injuries and suspensions. Finally, he was able to put together a more complete season in which he started in 12 of his 13 games and put up immense production from the right side (42 pressures — five sacks, 12 hits and 25 hurries).
The boom side of this signing for Denver is the hope that Gregory can replace the consistent edge-rushing presence the team lost after trading Von Miller to the Rams last year and that Bradley Chubb can return to form after a down 2021 campaign (45.0 PFF grade) hindered by injury.”
Gregory’s contract on the surface does feel somewhat “boom or bust,” but when digging into the finer details of his deal, Denver has a lot of protection and flexibility in case the signing doesn’t work out as everyone hopes. In essence, Gregory’s deal is for just two years, after which Denver can cut him with little cap ramification.
Given the flashes he has shown on tape, Gregory's youth, and relative cost compared to the other big-named edge-rushing free-agent options this offseason — Von Miller and Chandler Jones — the risk was likely worth the payoff.
With Gregory now probable to miss most, if not all, of the offseason, transitioning to a new team, city, scheme, and organization, the downside risk of his boom or bust contract likely got a little larger. Luckily for Gregory, it's a shoulder injury as opposed to a lower-body issue that probably would have been more impactful this season.
Furthermore, while Gregory and the Broncos could have opted for a more conservative approach in fixing his shoulder, the team decided it was best to fix it as much as possible to allow him the best chance at health going forward. This is perhaps somewhat influenced by Chubb’s predicament last year in which he waited until after the draft to go under the knife, which was followed by a conservative “play through pain” approach initially in the fall, and that was quickly shown to be an unfeasible route for him last season.
The issue with the Broncos at the edge rusher spot isn’t completely the starters but also the depth and backups. While Jonathon Cooper and Malik Reed are solid, considering the duo is made up of a seventh-round pick and a former college free agent, both have struggled to set the edge in run defense and have been more impactful on the field when their usage and roles have been rotational.
Cooper is a good depth rusher but at 24 years old this year, with limited size for the position and already rather refined hand usage as a pass rusher, he's likely closer to his ceiling than most edge rushers entering their second year in the NFL. For most teams, Cooper would be a fine third edge rusher, but given how often Gregory and Chubb have missed time, Denver should likely be concerned about Cooper as a possible starter at the position if the guys ahead of him on the depth chart miss time.
Also, while Reed has racked up sacks, his advanced statistics as a pass rusher tell a different story. In 2021, he had the single lowest pass-rush win rate out of 64 edge rushers when accounting for the top two on every NFL team, according to PFF.
Adding insult to injury, while Reed's pass-rush win rate was low, he also was bottom-5 in terms of double-team rate, meaning that he was afforded more one-on-one situations than nearly every NFL edge rusher and still ended up with the worst pass-rush win rate in the league.
It wasn’t just pass-rushing where Reed found wanting, as according to PFF, he earned a 49.6 run defense grade, ranking as the seventh-worst in the NFL for edge rushers with at least 700 snaps. This data, in spite of Reed’s sack output, is likely a large influence as to why the Broncos placed an original-round restricted free-agent tender on Reed rather than a second-rounder.
If another team offers Reed a contract, the Broncos will have a chance to match, but if the team opted not to, Denver would not receive any draft picks in return, given that he is a former undrafted free agent.
If the Broncos do go into next season with Chubb and Gregory as their listed starters and Cooper and Reed as their primary backups (with Baron Browning getting some edge reps as well, the team's pass rush could quickly go from promising to poor as quickly as it did last season when Miller was traded away, and Chubb was essentially lost for the season dealing with injury (zero sacks).
If Denver’s defense is going to contend for being the best unit in the AFC West this season and the team doesn’t bring in another relatively premium investment for the position, then cross your fingers for health from Chubb and Gregory in 2022.
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