Options For Browns Approaching Nick Chubb's Future
No one questions whether Nick Chubb is a great running back as he's in the conversation as the league's best, but the question regarding Chubb is about how the Cleveland Browns should approach his contract, which comes due after the 2021 season.
It's not a cut and dry decision and the Browns have a number of options on how to proceed that go far beyond simply keeping him or letting him walk.
None of these options include Chubb taking less money out of the goodness of his heart. He should get every dime he can, because after what will almost certainly be four fantastic seasons, he will have earned a hair under $7.4 million.
Teams don't want to pay running backs what they're worth because they are replaceable and the nature of position can result in a steep decline. In many ways, Chubb would be getting back paid for what he's already done as the second best player on the team. Asking him to take less money while the Browns pay out significant salaries to players who have done next to nothing to help the team win is insulting.
It's worth noting that the Browns have never treated Chubb like a player they are running into the ground and then moving on from after his rookie deal. Whether with the Browns or elsewhere, there's reason to believe he can sustain for several more years, assuming he doesn't suffer a major injury that impacts his mobility.
So, operating in a world that makes sense and doesn't rely on Chubb to be irrationally generous to the team over himself and his family, let's consider the potential avenues.
Option #1
Keep the offense together as it currently stands, keep Chubb on what would likely be the franchise tag and try to win the Super Bowl.
Andrew Berry has sounded pretty comfortable with the idea of running the Browns offense back as it currently stands, keeping Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield. The entire offense, save for players like Rashard Higgins and KhaDarel Hodge are under contract through 2021 already.
This would be based on the idea that Mayfield has figured it out and that he, Beckham, Landry and Austin Hooper would all be great together in the way it was envisioned when the team was put together.
This would also rely on the scouting department to be able to build the defense largely with rookie contracts and draft picks. The team wouldn't have any real money to use on that side of the ball, save for what they already have. This is a similar model as the Indianapolis Colts utilized to win the Super Bowl.
Option #2
Move on from Beckham and Landry, opting to go with cheaper options at wide receiver, putting the money into the line, tight ends and running backs.
The argument here is pretty simple. Landry isn't worth anywhere near what he's making and the Browns passing offense has worked fine with players like Rashard Higgins and KhaDarel Hodge. Beckham will be here another year because his contract is almost immovable for a year, but the money going to Landry will end up going to Chubb, because he's far more impactful in this offense and consistently contributes to the Browns winning.
Running backs and tight ends are the focal points of the offense and those positions create opportunities for cheaper receivers that have already proven themselves with Mayfield, simply adding to that group with draft picks that fit what Mayfield has become.
The defense can take on some additional money to improve the unit, so they aren't entirely relying on rookie contracts to improve the group.
This would seemingly be the most counterintuitive approach as it relates to analytics and weighing risk versus reward.. However, because of the way the Browns are structured, there's a real argument to be made that the Browns would be foolish to let Chubb walk and the wide receiver position is far more replaceable based on what the Browns have shown this year and the previous two seasons. And because they wouldn't be paying out any premium contracts at the receiver position, the running back simply replaces it in terms of financial weight.
Beckham and Landry would be replaced by rookie contracts that would essentially have the same lifespan as Chubb's second contract, so if they find a star they need to pay premium dollars, they can then reevaluate the situation and potentially let Chubb go then in favor of extending a star receiver that produces within their scheme.
This comes with substantial risk as illustrated by Todd Gurley. It's important to note that Gurley had long term knee issues when he got into the league. If Chubb doesn't, then the investment is far more prudent.
This was the approach the Minnesota Vikings took with Dalvin Cook. They traded Stephon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills for a bounty of picks. Diggs did far more for the Vikings than Beckham and Landry combined in Cleveland.
There has been plenty of skepticism with that approach, but Cook has been the best player on the field when the team has won. Chubb has been more durable than Cook.
Option #3
The third option is to do a mix and match.
Address Landry's contract and make a decision between Hunt and Chubb. Hunt's contract provides like so many other things the Browns have done. If they decide they can't or don't want to keep Chubb, Hunt is a good option at a reasonable cost for another year. If they decide to keep and extend Chubb, they can mitigate some of the cost by trading Hunt and potentially get a pretty good return. They then replace Hunt's role in the NFL Draft with the new player on a rookie deal.
Beckham has to play better, but the collection of receivers may provide a better balance, providing more opportunities for him to create on offense, especially if they add more speed.
The defense, again, gets some financial flexibility to add talent on the defensive side of the ball.
This more balanced approach may also yield the most opportunities for the Browns to improve the team. Without a full commitment to one side of the ball, they can sit back and let good situations avail themselves, taking advantage as they see fit.
Option #4
The Duffin approach, where the Browns don't pay Chubb and purge the receivers.
The Browns get rid of Landry next year, get rid of Beckham after 2021, let Chubb walk and replace all of them through the draft. This is also the fallback option if the team doesn't believe they can commit to Baker Mayfield as a quarterback that can get them to the Super Bowl.
It extends the life of their salary cap and all the space they've created, rolling it over year over year enabling them to keep building it up to a virtually insane level. However, it also essentially defers competing as the team has to find a quarterback, multiple receivers and are now relying almost entirely on tight ends and Kareem Hunt.
This also enables the Browns to essentially build up the best defense in franchise history if they can make the right signings and picks, trying to become dominant on that side of the ball. The Seattle Seahawks ended up taking this approach when they stumbled onto Russell Wilson.
Keep this in mind.
There is talk about the Browns extending Chubb now as a point of discussion, but there's no evidence at this point to suggest this is something the Browns and Chubb are currently engaging. The Browns do not have to do anything with Chubb until after the 2021 season. He's got one year left on his rookie deal now and especially with running backs, it behooves the team to wait because of the nature of the position and how quickly things can change.
Nevertheless, some of the options being discussed involve moves that would be made before that. If the Browns make the determination they want to move on from Landry, opting to keep Higgins, Hodge and going with help through the draft, that would likely happen after this season. Likewise, Landry could take a pay cut to ensure he stays with the team.
If the Browns decide not to be aggressive in the trade market or free agency with their defense this offseason, that could be indicative of a longer term strategy.
The decision on Chubb can and almost certainly will wait until 2021 unless Chubb were to hold out after this season. The way the Browns plan ahead and consider their options, they are looking at this discussion through more than just whether or not they want to keep Chubb. There are a lot of moving pieces involved and their decision on Chubb will likely signal an overall approach to how they build the team.
