Though regarded as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Tom Brady has not been a great fantasy quarterback as of late. That could all change with his move to Tampa, where the weather is warm and receiving weapons much more bountiful.
Last year, Brady scored 263.6 fantasy points, averaging 16.5 points per game. While he ranked 12th among all quarterbacks in overall scoring, he was just 16th in points per game.
A significant part of Brady's lack of production was the talent around him in New England. Gone was tight end Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots' leading receiver in three out of the five preceding seasons.
Brady's only reliable targets last year were wide receiver Julian Edelman and running back James White, who accounted for 45.5 percent of New England's 378 receptions.
The outlook in Tampa is much sunnier. Brady gets wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the NFL in 2019. Both were top-10 receivers, combining for 153 receptions, 2490 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Brady also gets Rob Gronkowski back from retirement, joining a loaded tight end room that includes 2018 first-round pick O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. This could be Brady's best collection of weapons since 2007 when he threw 50 touchdowns to the likes of Randy Moss and Wes Welker.
Could this make Brady a top-five fantasy quarterback? That's certainly the ceiling. Jameis Winston scored 305.3 fantasy points last year despite throwing 30 interceptions with nearly the same offense. Brady threw just 29 interceptions over the last four seasons combined.
Brady's scheme fit in Bruce Arians' offense might worry fantasy owners, but it shouldn't. Arians loves the deep ball, and Tom Brady can still throw it.
Last year, he completed 60 passes of over 20 yards, fifth-most in the NFL. He was also the seventh-most accurate deep passer, completing 43 percent of his passes of 20 yards or more (via ESPN's Jenna Laine).
Brady has not averaged 20 points per game since 2016, but there's a very real possibility he will next season. All the pieces are in place for him to be one of the great fantasy quarterbacks of 2020.