Analytics Recap: Chiefs Defeat Eagles 42-30
The Kansas City Chiefs bounced back on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles with a 42-30 win at Lincoln Financial Field. This followed two consecutive losses after a season-opening victory, putting the Chiefs back at .500 with a 2-2 record.
The offenses for both teams were quite dominant in this one, but the Chiefs' offense was incredible with the duo of Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs' next game will be at Arrowhead on Sunday night against the 3-1 Buffalo Bills, who also have one of the best offenses and, to this point, the best defense in all of football in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game.
Here are the advanced numbers from the Chiefs' victory over the Eagles and the season so far from Ben Baldwin's rbsdm.com.
EPA = Expected Points Added, SR = Success Rate, 1st% = First Down Rate
The Philadelphia Eagles' numbers look impressive, right? 0.25 EPA per play, 0.29 EPA per rush, 0.29 EPA per early-down play and 4.80 total EPA on late-down rushes just to start. It's a heck of a performance for the Eagles, especially considering the pieces they were missing on the offensive line.
Oh, right, the Chiefs. The numbers on the Chiefs' side are really self-explanatory. They added nearly a full expected point every other play and 1.3 expected points every other pass. They even added half an expected point every other run. While the Eagles had a better EPA per run, this is still a very high total, especially for having nearly double the run attempts of the Eagles. This was an offensive masterclass from the Chiefs, with some of the best single-game EPA numbers I can remember.
Tyreek Hill was simply unbelievable in this game with 12 counted plays, 20.2 EPA, 1.69 EPA per play and eight first downs. This was also probably the best game in a long time for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, putting up 5.2 EPA and having 10 out of 17 plays deemed successful. Other good players in the game include Darrel Williams with a 2.4 EPA, Byron Pringle with a 1.7 EPA, Jody Fortson with a 1.6 EPA and Mecole Hardman with a 1.4 EPA.
On the Eagles, their top offensive weapons were Kenneth Gainwell with 9.9 EPA over 11 plays, DeVonta Smith with 6.4 EPA over 10 plays and Dallas Goedert with 5.4 EPA over six plays, all averaging well over 0.60 EPA per play. Following them were Greg Ward at 3.6 EPA over two plays and Jalen Reager at 1.3 EPA over two plays, while Miles Sanders' 2.4 EPA as a receiver is offset by his -3.2 EPA as a runner.
aDoT = Average Depth of Target, CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage), xQBR = ESPN's Quarterback Rating metric
Patrick Mahomes's numbers are flat-out incredible for this game, even with his interception that could've made them that much better. He put up 0.65 EPA per play, which falls in the 97th percentile, 24.5 total EPA, which falls in the 98th percentile, and a 16.9 CPOE, which falls in the 97th percentile. If you take his interception away, that EPA increases to 29.5 total and 0.78 per play over a 38-play sample, and it probably increases with more positive production for the rest of the drive, which is just unbelievable to look at.
Jalen Hurts had a solid performance in his numbers, earning a 75th percentile 0.26 EPA per play and a 90th percentile 16.1 total EPA thanks to a wild 63 combined dropbacks and runs for Hurts, and 81st percentile 8.2 CPOE. Unfortunately for Hurts, his QBR didn't look as good as the other numbers, with a 66.5 QBR. Hurts should still feel good about this game, though, as his EPA+CPOE composite ranking went from 24th to 15th on the season in this game.
PHI_WP = Philadelphia's Win Probability
There wasn't much of an advantage for one team over the other in regards to the biggest plays of the game, with five plays going in favor of each team. The top play of the game for EPA was Mahomes's 44-yard touchdown pass to Hill in garbage time because it was a 3rd-and-6 with 44 yards to go to reach the end zone, but the win probability was already at zero percent for the Eagles. The top play of the game for win probability was Mahomes's six-yard touchdown pass to Hill in the second quarter, which increased the Chiefs' win probability from 75% to 84%.
To make up for last week, with the Chiefs holding the win probability advantage for only about half of the game, they held a decisive lead throughout Sunday's matchup. They began the game with a 75.5% win probability and went into halftime with a 92.3% win probability, holding a 21-13 lead and starting the half with the ball. The Chiefs then held an 80%+ win probability for the full second half, including an 85%+ win probability for the full fourth quarter. This was a pretty good, consistent performance for Kansas City, delivering a refreshingly smooth victory.
The Chiefs have jumped back in the lead in the lead for the best offense in the NFL after a 0.473 EPA per play offense on Sunday to get to 0.274 EPA per play on the season, and the Rams had a 0.030 EPA per play offense on Sunday to fall to 0.165 EPA per play on the season. The Chiefs remain at 32nd on defense with a 0.225 EPA per play allowed for the season. As wild as this still looks to be in the bottom right of a chart like this, I would rather be there than be in the middle. Offense is king, offense wins championships and the offense is what will decide the Chiefs' fate in the end.
Mahomes has regained the lead for the top quarterback in EPA per play and EPA+CPOE composite, following his 0.295 EPA+CPOE composite and 0.510 EPA per play Week 4, while Matthew Stafford had a 0.013 EPA per play and Teddy Bridgewater had a -0.066 EPA+CPOE composite this week. Mahomes currently stands at 0.260 EPA+CPOE composite, 0.452 EPA per play and 10.6 CPOE on the season, with the CPOE ranking third and the other two stats ranking in first.
The final chart of the day is early-down passing rate with a 20-80% win probability. The Chiefs rose to fifth with a 60.2% pass rate this past week, trailing just the Bills, Patriots, Buccaneers and Raiders. On these early downs, the Chiefs have 0.359 EPA per pass and 0.002 EPA per rush, ranking fifth and ninth respectively. Hopefully for the Chiefs, the Bills' pass rate will decrease on Sunday night and the Chiefs' pass rate increases, as that should be the most likely way for the Chiefs to win the game.
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