Kansas City Chiefs 2021 Season Prop Bets

The Kansas City Chiefs have plenty of options to choose from when it comes to season-long prop bets for the 2021 NFL season.
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On Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs begin their highly-anticipated “Take it Back” quest as they face off against the Cleveland Browns.

There are always interesting bits and pieces of wagering information to look at heading into the season, and this year is no exception. With so many prop bets to choose from, let’s lean into some of the most popular season-long bets for the Chiefs.

Favorites to win the Super Bowl

Chiefs (+487)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+650)

Buffalo Bills (+1148)

The Chiefs are a solid favorite to win the Super Bowl this season. If you want to risk $100 to win $487, this isn’t a bad play at all. History is not on the team's side, but if there's one thing Patrick Mahomes and company have taught the NFL over the past few years, it's that they're more than capable of bucking trends.

Chiefs Win Total: Over/Under 12.5

It’s not a surprise that the Chiefs are projected to win the most games in the NFL. The team has the highest over/under with the win total set at 12.5. It’s hard to say it’s a lock that an NFL team will win 13 games but Andy Reid traditionally hits the over on win totals — doing so every season since he’s been in Kansas City. Add in the extra game on the schedule and the fact that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and taking the over seems like a good bet.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Mahomes Bets

NFL MVP

Mahomes (+550)

Aaron Rodgers (+1000)

Mahomes is projected to lead the league in many passing categories and is a favorite to win MVP. In fact, he’s almost twice as likely to win than Rodgers, the next closest competitor. If you’re confident in Mahomes’ ability and want to throw down $100 to win $550, this would be a good bet for you.

Passing Touchdowns: Over/Under 39.5

This one comes down to your belief in Mahomes throwing 40 or more touchdowns this season. He has only done so once in his young career, throwing 50 touchdowns his first full campaign as a starter. His 2020 touchdown total was 38. He did sit in Week 17 of last season and with the added game on the 2021 slate, taking the over isn't a bad idea.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Interceptions: Over/Under 9.5

Do you think Mahomes will be more careless with the ball this season compared to last year? If so, you might want to take the over on this one. With that said, he threw a combined 11 interceptions in the past two seasons. I’ll be taking the under on this one without hesitation.

Mark’s Pick: UNDER

Passing Yards: Over/Under 5,050

This is a tricky one, and the sportsbooks are trying to bait us here. I would try to stay away from this one. Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards last year and rested with the other starters in Week 17. If he plays the full schedule in 2021 (17 games), he should be able to smash the over. 

The Chiefs were notorious for letting several teams stick around in games last season, so 2021 could be another situation like that where Mahomes will need to keep passing late into games. However, nothing is a given and perhaps the Chiefs won’t need to pass the ball much if they maintain big leads. Tough call, and a close one at that.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Clyde Edwards-Helaire Bets

Rushing Yards: Over/Under 900

Rushing Touchdowns: Over/Under 7.5

In his second year in the same system and now behind a new-and-improved offensive line, Edwards-Helaire should have a nice increase in numbers from his rookie season. His 803 rushing yards make it seem like 900 should be easy to accomplish as long as he stays healthy. Can he double his rushing touchdowns from four to eight, though? I’m not so sure about that. His total touchdowns could be over 10 on the season, but for strictly rushing touchdowns, I’d take the under.

Mark's Pick: OVER, UNDER

Tyreek Hill Bets

Receiving Yards: Over/Under 1,350

Receiving Touchdowns: Over/Under 10.5

If you think Mahomes is throwing for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns, it would be wise to take the over on these Tyreek Hill prop bets. Hill is one of the best wide receivers in the league and his stock continues to rise as he enters his prime.

Mark's Pick: OVER, OVER

Travis Kelce Bets

Receiving Yards: Over/Under 1,325

Receiving Touchdowns: Over/Under 9.5

Many will call me a hater, and that’s fine. Travis Kelce is still the best tight end in the NFL, but this season I think the Chiefs will try to alleviate some of the stress and physicality of the game to elongate his incredible career. As a result, his snap totals and season numbers may not be as ridiculous as some think. 

The Chiefs drafted tight end Noah Gray and converted former practice squad wide receiver Jody Fortson to the same position. Blake Bell made his way back to Kansas City as well and the Chiefs will carry four tight ends heading into the season. Kelce’s role will still be prominent — and dominant — and his 1,000-yard season streak will continue. I just think the team will be more proactive in keeping him fresh for a playoff run and give some of these other guys a few more snaps than we’ve seen in the past.

Mark's Pick: UNDER, UNDER

Chiefs Defense Bets

Chris Jones Sacks: Over/Under 8

Hammer the over on this one. Chris Jones got 8.5 sacks last season and is only going to be better this season as he moves around the defensive front. Sometimes he will line up a defensive end, sometimes he will line up on the inside as a tackle. No matter where Jones lines up, he will be getting after the quarterback. This is an easy pick.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Tyrann Mathieu Interceptions: Over/Under 3.5

Tyrann Mathieu has recorded at least four interceptions in each season he’s been a Chief, including six last season. I don’t think he is slowing down at this point, and he’s playing for one more long-term contract. Much like with the Jones bet, this one doesn't require too much thought.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

L’Jarius Sneed Interceptions: Over/Under 3.5

L'Jarius Sneed came out of the gates on fire as a rookie last season, recording an interception in each of his first two games as a pro. He then broke his collarbone attempting to get his third interception in three games and missed several games as a result. He still managed to finish the season with three interceptions and assuming he can stay healthy for a full slate of games, this will be another easy over.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Anthony Hitchens Total Tackles: Over/Under 85.5

Linebacker Anthony Hitchens finished the season with 78 tackles last year and 88 the season before that. He was a tackling machine during his first season in Kansas City, racking up 135 total tackles. A lot of people are hoping to see a heavy dose of Willie Gay Jr. when he’s healthy, as well as rookie Nick Bolton, due to their youth and future projections. With that said, I think it’s safe to say that Hitchens will still hit the over in total tackles this season.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

Frank Clark Sacks: Over/Under 7.5

Frank Clark’s play has been underwhelming at times and Chiefs fans are hoping for a big season from him. He recorded eight sacks in his first season with the team and only recorded six last season. There is potential to see a jump in Clark’s numbers this year with the addition of former Seattle Seahawks teammate Jarran Reed and with Jones moving to the opposite defensive end position. Despite what the naysayers may want you to believe, Clark still has plenty of fight left in him. He should approach or hit double-digit sacks.

Mark’s Pick: OVER

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