The Case for Mecole Hardman Becoming an Every-Down Receiver
Back on June 3, I wrote an article about why I believed that Juan Thornhill, one of the Chiefs' first two draft picks of the 2019 NFL Draft, will be an All-Pro after seeing how well his rookie year went. Today, it's time to take a look at the other top pick from 2019: Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman.
Hardman, like Thornhill, made an instant impact that caught the eyes of all who watched them in 2019. By Week 3, Hardman already had 158 yards, two touchdowns and four first downs, despite being targeted just 11 times.
In theory, talented young receivers such as Hardman should find an increase in target share as their success is presented, but we saw no such trend for Hardman in 2019. Despite avoiding injuries during the season, Hardman failed to see five or more targets in any games after Week 5. Hardman even struggled to find time on the field at times, with fewer than 20 snaps in seven of the 14 games after Week 5, according to Pro Football Focus. For comparison, Demarcus Robinson, the Chiefs' primary third receiver in 2019, had no games with fewer than 20 snaps and just three games with fewer than 30 snaps all season.
However, Robinson was unable to take advantage of this major playing time advantage on Hardman. Robinson finished the season with 484 yards and four touchdowns, with 172 yards and two touchdowns coming in one game in Week 2 vs. the Oakland Raiders. After Week 5, Robinson had just 203 yards and one touchdown while playing more than 500 snaps and being targeted 34 times. Hardman, on the other hand, had 321 yards and four touchdowns while playing fewer than 300 snaps and being targeted 22 times. This contrast is monumental, and it is shocking that there was no real adjustment to this in 2019. Just imagine how much more effective the Chiefs' offense would have been with Hardman getting those snaps and targets that Robinson had!
Nevertheless, Hardman accomplished some monumental feats in year one. He led the NFL in regular-season yards per target at 20.7, had the highest yards per catch among NFL receivers that had four or more touchdowns with 47.8, tied for the most touchdowns from the slot with six, tied for the most 25+ yard touchdowns with five, led the NFL in passer rating when targeted with a 153.3 rating and had the No. 1 PFF grade when targeted while facing single coverage. Hardman, just as a rookie, became one of the most dangerous wide receivers in the NFL on a per-play basis.
This should sound quite familiar to anyone who saw a rookie Tyreek Hill in 2016, but Hardman's rookie season was actually even better. Rookie-season Hill had nine offensive touchdowns on 92 offensive touches for a 9.8% touchdown rate, while rookie-season Hardman had six offensive touchdowns on 35 offensive touches for an astronomically high 17.1% touchdown rate. Rookie Hill had 9.8 yards per offensive touch, while rookie Hardman had 16.5 yards per offensive touch. At this point, Hardman is far more dangerous than Hill was at that point in his career, and that is an incredible sign going forward.
After looking through all of the data presented above, it should be very clear that there is no reason to keep Hardman off the field. Of course, Hardman has some things to clean up, but there is no reason he can't do it. If Hill, who was regarded as a return specialist early in his career, can become one of the very best receivers in the NFL with great ball skills and great route running, why can't Hardman? Rookie Hardman was better than rookie Hill was, and Hardman was held back in his snap count and target rate! Hardman is better than many Chiefs fans have realized, and even I was surprised by some of the outlandish numbers I came across while researching for this article. Mecole Hardman is going to be a problem for a long time to come. Now he can plan for a career exclusively played with Patrick Mahomes. This is going to be a fun decade of football, but it will be even more fun if Hardman gets the playing time that he so clearly deserves.
