Would Colts Consider Long-Term Extension for Quenton Nelson?
INDIANAPOLIS — The Kansas City Chiefs giving quarterback Patrick Mahomes the richest contract in sports history on Monday should prompt questions about the ripple effect for long-term NFL deals elsewhere.
In the case of the Indianapolis Colts, would general manager Chris Ballard consider locking down two-time All-Pro left guard Quenton Nelson?
We’re not talking 10 years and up to $503 million like Mahomes, but Nelson has proven himself to be one of the best at his position in just two years. He’s scheduled to make $6.6 million in 2020, then $7.77 million in 2021. There’s a fifth-year option for 2022, which the Colts would likely pick up before that season because the salary would be about half as much as what Nelson will earn on his next contract.
How much money and years are we talking?
A comparison can be made to Dallas Cowboys offensive guard Zack Martin, an Indianapolis native. Like Nelson, Martin is a former first-round pick out of Notre Dame who has been outstanding from day one. He’s been named to the Pro Bowl in each of his six seasons. He’s been selected First-Team All-Pro four times, and Second-Team All-Pro the other two years.
In 2018, the Cowboys decided to lock up Martin with a six-year, $84-million extension, half of that money guaranteed.
Why would the Colts consider a long-term extension for Nelson? Look at the Mahomes deal as the blueprint. In theory, locking up a NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion for a decade sets a price that won’t escalate as much as if he received one or two more negotiated deals. The Chiefs know how much they’re paying their most important player and can adjust accordingly in how they manage the salary cap.
Colts left guard Quenton Nelson has been named All-Pro in each of his two NFL seasons.
Jenna Watson/USA TODAY Sports
But there are reasons for the Colts holding off on committing so much money to Nelson right now. Ballard might prefer to roll over as much of the $23.3 million (spotrac.com) in salary cap space to re-sign key players next offseason. Because that list of players entering a contract year is lengthy, it might make more sense to give Nelson his huge big pay after 2021.
Colts looking to get paid after 2020 include four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly, sack-leading defensive end Justin Houston, leading rusher Marlon Mack, 2019 top-tackling linebacker Anthony Walker Jr., defensive tackle Denico Autry, safety Malik Hooker, defensive tackle Grover Stewart, and defensive end Al-Quadin Muhammad.
The Colts also signed several players to one-year deals for 2020, most notably quarterback Philip Rivers, cornerback Xavier Rhodes, defensive tackle Sheldon Day, tight end Trey Burton, and cornerback T.J. Carrie. If Rivers plays well, expect him to fetch another $25 million or so. If Rhodes regains past All-Pro form, his price will at least double the $3 million for this season.
And there’s one more factor to consider when pondering a long-term deal for Nelson — what if he gets hurt? How a contract is structured is important — how much is guaranteed and can a team get out of it if something bad happens?
Philadelphia Eagles guard Brandon Brooks became the NFL’s highest-paid guard, at the time, near the end of the 2019 season when he agreed to a four-year, $56.2-million extension. He’s been to the last three Pro Bowls, but that streak will end next season because Brooks suffered a torn Achilles last month and will miss 2020.
Ballard and other GMs weigh the risk when considering the reward to giving a proven player a lucrative contract.
(Phillip B. Wilson has covered the Indianapolis Colts for more than two decades and authored the 2013 book 100 Things Colts Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. He’s on Twitter @pwilson24, on Facebook at @allcoltswithphilb and @100thingscoltsfans, and his email is phillipbwilson24@yahoo.com.)
