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Cowboys: 'Tricky' Truth About Turnovers

Just how many MORE turnovers do the Cowboys need to content this season? It might not be as many as you think

FRISCO - You know how sometimes you start to write one thing and you realize that you actually need to write something else? That happened to me as I examined whether the Dallas Cowboys needed to create more turnovers on defense in 2021.

The answer is "yes.'' But the truth is a little tricky.

Most Cowboys fans were undoubtedly pleased to see Keanu Neal force a fumble and recover it in the first quarter of Friday’s preseason loss against Arizona. Cowboys fans probably said to themselves, ‘More of that, please.’

Well, yes, the Cowboys want more of that. That’s part of the reason Neal is here. That’s part of the reason new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is here. That’s part of the reason this offseason, from free agency to the draft, has been so focused on the defense (with the rather large exception of Dak Prescott’s contract).

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"Dan is bringing the swagger back,'' says DeMarcus Lawrence. "That's what we need in this place: swagger, that pep in our step and that swagger with our movement. So, I feel like Dan is doing a good job bringing that formula back."

What is the "formula,'' exactly, that allows "swagger'' to achieve "takeaways''

Well, if you checked out of last season — and who could blame some Cowboys fans for doing so after Prescott’s injury — you might think the Cowboys are starting from scratch when it comes to creating turnovers. The truth may be that the Cowboys are trying to BUILD on what they did a year ago.

Yeah, I know. Kind of blew me away too.

My original premise was that creating turnovers at a high level can greatly aid in reaching the playoffs, and that premise is the truth. You look at last year and five of the top six teams in turnovers forced went to the postseason in 2020, including Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay.

Which teams were sandwiched around those five playoff teams? Miami at the top with 29, which failed to make the playoffs despite 10 wins, and Dallas, which forced 23 turnovers to lead three teams tied for seventh in the NFL.

The other two? Tennessee and Washington. Both of those teams went to the playoffs, too.

Remember those 2019 Dallas Cowboys, the ones that went 8-8 under Jason Garrett? They had 17 takeaways and were near the bottom of the NFL. The season before, 2018, the Cowboys won 10 games and reached the playoffs, but did so creating just 20 turnovers. That was middle of the pack in the NFL that season. Three turnovers forced and a difference of two wins isn’t much of a gap.

If you dig back into turnovers forced for the last seven seasons — dating back to 2014 — the Cowboys only created 30 or more turnovers in one season. That came in 2014, when the Cowboys were No. 2 in the NFL with 31 turnovers created. That year the Cowboys went 12-4, won the NFC East and went to Green Bay and, well, you know the rest.

The Cowboys’ second-most turnovers forced in that span? Yep, last season.

Last season was an anomaly when it came to turnovers as a whole. It was the only year in the seven-season sample size where no NFL team forced at least 30 turnovers. But the Cowboys also produced at their second-highest level in that sample. Given how universally panned the defense was last season, despite some marked improvement in the final month, the fact that it actually registered its second-most turnovers forced in seven years is encouraging.

The Cowboys still need more of what Neal provided, obviously. But the foundation, strangely, may be there.

The Cowboys had 10 interceptions last year. That’s not much. But nine of those interceptions are back (the Cowboys only lost Chidobe Awuzie’s one interception in free agency). Ten of the Cowboys’ 13 fumble recoveries from last season are back, too. Awuzie recovered a fumble, while Aldon Smith recovered two.

So, remember when I wrote that the truth is tricky?

What if the truth is the Cowboys have a returning lineup that is more adept than we thought at creating turnovers, and the new pieces are designed to accentuate, challenge and push that existing lineup to another level?

Well, if that’s the case, then the Cowboys’ defense would REALLY be on to something.

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You can reach Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.