Why the Dolphins Will Win, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen
The Miami Dolphins will look to reverse their ugly Thursday night streak against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but more importantly get their first victory of the 2020 season.
The Dolphins are coming off a 31-28 loss against the Buffalo Bills, while the Jaguars dropped a 33-30 decision against the Tennessee Titans.
Here are different ways this game could play out:
The Dolphins will win because ...
-- Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will follow former Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill (four TD passes) in taking advantage of the Jacksonville pass defense.
-- Preston Williams, not covered by Stephon Gilmore or Tre'Davious White this week, will break out with his first big game of 2020.
-- Running back Jordan Howard will get his most carries as a member of the Dolphins and add to his rushing touchdown total.
-- The Dolphins will control pass rushers Josh Allen (not the Buffalo QB) and K'Lavon Chaisson and give Fitzpatrick plenty of time to throw.
-- The Dolphins will take advantage of Gardner Minshew II's habit of hanging on to the ball to get the pass rush going.
-- Minshew also likes to take chances, and the Dolphins will make him pay with a couple of interceptions.
-- The Jacksonville passing game won't be able to overcome the absence of wide receiver DJ Chark if it turns out he doesn't play because of his chest injury.
-- Kicker Jason Sanders again will make his field goals, while Jaguars rookie Brandon Wright will get the yips and miss an attempt or two.
-- Simple, the Dolphins will beat the Jaguars because beards are better than mustaches.
The Dolphins will lose because ...
-- The first obvious reason will be another bad performance by the pass defense, which faces a tough test against a Jacksonville offense that has a lot of quality receivers.
-- Chark not only plays, but puts up big numbers, similar to what Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs had last weekend.
-- Minshew Mania is out there in full force and the quarterback makes a couple of eye-opening plays for the Jaguars offense.
-- Linebackers Myles Jack and Joe Schobert help shut down tight end Mike Gesicki after he was such a big factor against Buffalo.
-- Allen and Chaisson show off the pass-rushing potential that made them first-round picks the past two years, and Fitzpatrick spends a good deal of the night running around trying to escape pressure.
-- Jaguars first-round pick C.J. Henderson continues to show why he's destined to be a star cornerback in the NFL and shuts down DeVante Parker like he shut down T.Y. Hilton in Week 1.
-- The Dolphins running game against can't get going.
-- Wright becomes a Cinderella story after being promoted from the practice squad to replace injured kicker Josh Lambo and makes a last-second game-winning field goal.
What actually will happen ...
This actually has become a much tougher matchup for the Dolphins than it appeared at the start of the season after the Jaguars had moved on from a bunch of high-profile players, such as Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue.
The Jaguars were expected to be strong contenders for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, but instead began the season with an upset victory against the Colts and a near-upset against the Titans — in Tennessee.
And then there's the Dolphins' recent streak in Thursday night games: four straight losses, all on the road, by a average score of 35-9.
Given those two factors, it's fair that Jacksonville will go into the game as a 3-point favorite, though the sense here is that the Dolphins will finish off what they started against Buffalo last week and find a way to make plays with the game on the line in the fourth quarter.
It certainly won't be easy, and it certainly would be foolish to expect a cakewalk where once it appeared it might be, but it says here the Dolphins get their first win of the season in an entertaining, high-scoring Thursday night battle.
Dolphins 28, Jaguars 26.
