Why the Dolphins Will Defeat the Patriots in Week 15, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen
The Miami Dolphins will look for their eighth victory in 10 games but more importantly keep pace in the AFC playoff race when they face the New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday.
The Dolphins (8-5) are coming off a 33-27 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Patriots are barely clinging to playoff hopes after a 24-6 loss against the Los Angeles Rams left them with a 6-7 record.
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Here are different ways this game could play out:
The Dolphins will win because ...
-- The Dolphins have surpassed the Patriots and become a better team in Brian Flores' second year as head coach.
-- The Patriots offense has been a mess all season and the Dolphins will shut it down.
-- Cam Newton will make the mistake of testing Xavien Howard and will suffer the same consequences as Patrick Mahomes did last week and so many others have done all season.
-- The Dolphins defense will find the answer to shutting down the New England running game, which caused so many problems in the Week 1 game at Gillette Stadium.
-- Wide receiver DeVante Parker will be able to play after being listed as questionable because of his hamstring injury and come up with some big plays against the New England secondary.
-- The Dolphins running game will find a way to experience success against a New England run defense that was porous in the Thursday night loss against the Rams.
-- Rookie Tua Tagovailoa will pick up where he left off in the fourth quarter of the game against the Chiefs and deliver his finest NFL performance yet.
-- The special teams will rebound after a rough outing and come up with a big play, along with some Jason Sanders kicks.
-- The Dolphins have never gone 1-2 in a three-game homestand in franchise history, and they're 1-1 now after defeating Cincinnati and losing against Kansas City.
RELATED: Dolphins History Lesson on Three-Game Homestands
The Dolphins will lose because ...
-- Because it's the Patriots and the Patriots have a habit of ruining good things.
-- The Dolphins won't fare much better at stopping the New England running game than they did in the first matchup.
-- Cam Newton actually will have some success throwing the ball after a wildly inconsistent season in that aspect.
-- The New England defense will shut down the Dolphins passing game and make life difficult for Tagovailoa.
-- Tua won't have Mike Gesicki because of his shoulder injury and that will have an impact on the passing game.
-- The Dolphins running game won't be able to duplicate what the Rams did against the Patriots.
-- The Patriots defense will do a lot of disguising in the front seven and end up confusing the young Dolphins offensive line.
-- DeVante Parker won't be able to play because of his hamstring injury, or he'll play but Stephon Gilmore will make him a non-factor.
What actually will happen ...
I'm on a three-game winning streak with the predictions, including my pick of the Dolphins losing against the Chiefs (had a score of 27-23), putting my season record at 9-4.
This game is a lot more difficult to pick than the teams' record might suggest and, yes, part of the reason is the Dolphins' rash of injuries on offense and at linebacker.
As proof, oddsmakers have made the Dolphins only 1.5-point favorites despite playing at home (understanding that home-field advantage this season is diminished because of the reduced capacity).
RELATED: Dolphins in Different Role vs. Patriots
The truth is that — and this is something I know Dolphins fans don't want to hear — the Patriots are a tough matchup because their strengths play to Miami's weaknesses.
New England's strength on defense remains its secondary, which matches the Dolphins passing as Miami's strength. The Rams beat the Patriots by pounding the ball at them, but the Dolphins simply are not that kind of team at the moment.
On the other side, what New England does best is run the ball, and the one concern on defense for Miami is stopping the run — even though the Dolphins have played well in that department the past three weeks.
That said, two of those three games were against the lowly Jets and Bengals.
Then there's the Belichick factor and his success against rookie quarterbacks. From this end, it isn't so much his 11-game winning streak against rookie first-round picks that stands out because the Patriots have been Super Bowl contenders for almost 20 years.
No, what's worrisome here is that Belichick has found a way to shut down those rookie first-round picks on a regular basis, the latest example being Justin Herbert just two weeks ago.
You can look for Belichick to come up with a scheme that will be designed to confuse Tua Tagovailoa from start to finish, and it will be up to Tua to really be on his game.
This is a game where it also won't be a great help to have three rookies (at least two) starting on the offensive line.
As the point spread suggest, this pretty much is a toss-up game and it would be foolish to dismiss the Pats just because they're on the brink of elimination.
I have picked the Dolphins to win six times and am 5-1 in those games; I've picked against them seven times and am 4-3 in those. The three times I picked against the Dolphins and they won were for the games against San Francisco, Arizona and the L.A. Chargers.
Since the object of the column is to offer an honest evaluation and prediction of the game, this exercise isn't about trying to please anybody.
The Dolphins really need this game — though not mathematically — to keep their playoff hopes, but it's just a bad matchup for them made worse by their injury issues.
Here's hoping for a fourth loss when picking against the Dolphins.
Patriots 16, Dolphins 13
