Saturday Wild-Card Weekend Dolphins Mailbag: Tua, Grier, Chubb, and More

Part 1 of a wild-card weekend Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:
From TJ:
What do these playoff teams (particularly AFC) have that the Dolphins didn’t have this year? Coaching? Players? Culture? Play calling? My personal answer is a healthy QB1 all or most of the season.
Hey TJ, having your QB stay healthy absolutely is a factor, but that wasn’t the only reason the Dolphins failed to make the playoffs. Let’s not forget the Dolphins were 6-5 with Tua starting, they were 1-5 against teams with winning records, and 1-8 against teams that won more than six games. Not exactly the sign of a great team. I ran down a list of my five biggest reasons why the Dolphins didn’t make the playoffs and the backup QB letdown was in there, for sure.
From Jorge boyd:
I'm sorry Alain for me the season is over, frustration continues after 50 years.
Hey Jorge, is a Super Bowl win the only way to stop the frustration? If that’s the case, there are a lot of frustrated fans everywhere in the country.
From Ed Helinski:
Who are you liking as winners for this weekend’s games? And what’s your choice as best game?
Hey Ed, as I ran down on the All Dolphins Podcast, Episode 449, I like L.A. Chargers over Houston, Baltimore over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Denver, Philadelphia over Green Bay, Tampa Bay over Washington, Rams over Minnesota. I think Minnesota/Rams looks like the best game.
From Prince-Bishop Militantly Aardvark:
For some time, Miami has drafted poorly. Is it time to look at the scouting department and make changes before handing Grier the ritual paper knife for his long-delayed seppuku? How much have others helped Grier down the road to mediocrity?
Hey PBMA, the Dolphins drafts maybe haven’t been great, but is “poorly” the right word? For example, the Dolphins got Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland with their top three picks in 2021; is that a poor draft? To be sure, there were misses, but every team has misses. And, yes, Grier gets a lot of help, as does every GM getting reports from their scouts before arriving at a draft decision.
From Davesgold:
Is the league-wide perception of Tua's health the reason why he was on IR for a concussion for 4 weeks when other players usually only miss 1 or 2 weeks??
Hey Dave, no, I don’t believe that. Rather, this was a case of doctors wanting to err on the side of caution to make sure Tua properly healed after his third diagnosed concussion in the past three seasons. Would fans have preferred he be rushed back too soon? I don’t buy this idea of something nefarious at play here. Sorry.
From The Sicilian Italian:
How far do you expect the Bills to go in this postseason, Alain?
That’s a great question, and I think I’d tell you I could see the Bills go very far, maybe even winning the Super Bowl, but my thought right now is that Baltimore is the team to beat in the AFC (yes, ahead of KC, maybe wishful thinking because I’m sick of the Chiefs) and Buffalo has to face Baltimore in the second round. I didn’t love Buffalo’s end of season very much, but if I were to give a Super Bowl likelihood score to the top AFC teams, I’d go Baltimore at 34 percent, Buffalo at 33 percent and Kansas City at 33 percent.
From Chris Bustin:
Hey, Alain. The one thing that irks me about discussing Tua missing games is that it presupposes he’s good enough when healthy, which I take issue with because of his record against good teams. I don’t think a healthy Tua would’ve been worthy of a huge contract, either. Thoughts?
Hey Chris, I wrote about that very topic before the Dolphins gave him the extension and asking the very question of exactly what was the ceiling with Tua. While he did play well at Buffalo in his second game back, he had a rough outing against the Bills in Miami, was not good against Green Bay until it was 27-3 and had a poor performance against Houston. Your concerns are exactly the same I’ve had and, no, I would not have signed him to a long-term extension, even without the health issues, which made the decision even more egregious to me.
From Lloyd Heilbrunn:
Which Dolphins' staff member is responsible looking at the video and advising McDaniel on challenges? Because 4 for 19 is abysmal.
Hey Lloyd, we have asked Mike McDaniel that very question a couple of times and he’s punted on providing a clear answer every time. He’s somebody in the coaches’ booth, so that eliminates Anthony Weaver because he’s down on the field. Outside of that, I couldn’t really tell you.
From Matt DePeri:
What do you think about bringing Chubb back and maybe restructuring to lower his cap hit? A healthy Chubb, Chop and Phillips is pretty intriguing.
Hey Matt, Chubb has three more years left on the extension he signed after the Dolphins acquired him in that trade with Denver, but his cap number jumps to almost $29 million in 2025 and I have a hard time the Dolphins being OK with that. Restructuring his contract to lower his cap number absolutely makes sense, but Chubb has to be on board with that. The Dolphins could save almost $20 million in cap space if they make him a post-June 1 cut, which would be a distinct possibility if the sides can’t come to an agreement.
From Charles Boyd:
Alain, if you remember I was concerned very early in the season with our lack of a plan to win cold weather games. Do you think that Mike McDaniel will come up with a plan for that or will he and Chris Grier be getting fired this time next year?
Hey Charles, I’ll be honest with you, I’m not on board with this whole “can’t win in cold weather” narrative. To me, the much bigger issue with the Dolphins is their lack of success against quality opponents, cold weather or not. If you look at this season, the only cold games were Green Bay and the Jets, and the latter was a weird game because the Dolphins knew their playoff hopes were done while they were playing. And if doesn’t get fixed, like soon, yes, Grier and McDaniel eventually will get fired.
From Richard J. Leonard:
Hi Alain, still lovin' the podcast. If Anthony Weaver leaves to take a head coaching position, do you feel his successor is already on the Dolphins? Is anyone ready to step up, or will they have to look elsewhere?
Hey Richard, thanks much. Programming note here, we will continue the All Dolphins Podcast on a regular basis throughout the offseason. If Weaver were to leave, the Dolphins have an assistant who was a DC just last season, and that’s LB coach Joe Barry (with the Packers). D-line coach Austin Clark always has gotten a lot of comments about his bright coaching future, but he might still not have quite enough experience. My best guess is the Dolphins would go outside the organization for a Weaver replacement if they have to find one.
From Mike Jones:
Did anyone witness Tyreek getting hurt in the scrimmage vs Washington? If it's broken as Drew Rosenhaus claimed, Reek would have obviously exhibited signs of being hurt?
Hey Mike, I do not recall any of us noticing anything at all. Understand there’s a lot going on in joint practices over the two fields, so it’s possible that Hill showed signs of pain at some point, but I don’t believe any media member noticed or wrote about it.
From Andy Bunting:
Twleve months ago Frank Smith was being interviewed for a HC. This year he isn't. How much is the offense his, how much is it McD? Given he is unlikely to be given the play-calling duties, would it be beneficial for him to go elsewhere to be a play-caller & put himself back in the HC race.
Hey Andy, yeah, Smith’s name hasn’t been mentioned among the many for the head-coaching openings this cycle. I think pretty much everyone who covers the Dolphins would tell you the offense is McDaniel’s baby and Smith’s role as that of right-hand man. And you make a good point that if becoming a head coach is the end goal for Smith, it might help his career to get an OC job with more of an imprint on the offense.