Rookie Drafts are one of the most exciting parts of Dynasty Fantasy Football. It is the opportunity for weaker teams to rebuild and sometimes stronger teams to become stronger. Unfortunately, sometimes a prospect’s value can suffer a bit of a loss after the draft due to several factors that are entirely out of the prospect’s control. Certain contributing factors such as simply which team, positional situation, and team scheme. In some cases, a prospect whose ADP wasn’t as high, landing on the right team could increase his ADP due to the situation around him. Conversely, the same things that may help a prospect can hurt one too. Here are a few prospects whose value has gone down since before the NFL Draft.
Javonte Williams Running Back, Denver Broncos
The consensus third-best running back Williams is heading into this year’s Draft behind Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. While talent-wise, nothing has changed, Williams remains the wrecking ball he was during his collegiate career, leading the NCAA in broken tackles. Williams, taken 35th overall by the Denver Broncos, is now in a crowded backfield and Melvin Gordon, Royce Freeman, and Mike Boone. The threat here to Williams isn’t Freeman or Boone but Gordon. While yes, Williams will still serve some value. Williams’s value would have been substantially better had the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, or New York Jets drafted him, where he presumably would have been in line for a much larger workload and target share. The good news is that this is the final year of Melvin Gordon’s contract before becoming an Unrestricted Free Agent after this upcoming season.
Mac Jones Quarterback, New England Patriots
Here again, we see landing spots directly impacting a player’s value. Leading up to the Draft, it was rumored that San Francisco, with the third pick in the NFL Draft, was deciding between Mac Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Had Mac Jones been taken at three, he wouldn’t have been on this list. San Francisco’s head coach Kyle Shanahan is widely regarded throughout the league as an excellent person to develop quarterbacks. At the same time, both Jones and Lance are polished products that are not going to San Francisco impacts Mac Jones’s value.
Tylan Wallace Wide Reciever, Baltimore Ravens
Wallace was our 7th best wideout in our Rookie ADP and joining a crowded Ravens wide receiver group doesn’t help his stock. The Ravens receivers as a whole have struggled for the past few years, and now Wallace will now have to fight for targets against Marquise Brown, recently added Sammy Watkins, Rashod Batemon, Mark Andrews, and J.K. Dobbins. There is no clear path for Wallace for targets in an offense that has struggled to multiple wide receivers in recent years.
Chuba Hubbard Running Back, Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard was one of the top projected running backs out of Oklahoma State before deciding to opt-out in 2020. Truthfully anywhere Hubbard could have gone would have been better being drafted as Christian McCaffrey’s backup is legitimately one of the worse landing spots a running back can land. According to our Rookie Dynasty ADP, Chuba Hubbard was drafted as the 21st rookie off the board. Barring an injury to McCaffrey, Hubbard won’t see much if any of the snaps in Carolina, and aside from being the handcuff for Christian McCaffrey, Hubbard provides no fantasy impact at this time.
Trey Sermon Running Back, San Francisco 49ers
To quote Raheem Mostert, “Welcome to the RB room, to the ceiling!” and that is no joke. Our Rookie ADP’s had Sermon as the fifth-best running back in this class. Sermon joins Raheem Mostert, Kyle Juszcyk, JaMycal Hasty, and recently added Wayne Gallman. They are indeed packed to the ceiling. Mostert, Juszcyk, and Hasty all had roles in the 49er’s offense last year. So it will be interesting to see what percentage of snaps Sermon will see, and given the limited opportunities, he may not produce year one.