2023 NFL Draft: Strategizing the Las Vegas Raiders’ No. 7 Pick After the Jimmy Garoppolo Signing
In this story:
The winds of change are blowing for the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. In just the last week or so, the Raiders have traded away star tight end Darren Waller and replaced one-time franchise quarterback Derek Carr with superstar signal caller Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders also own the seventh overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This article sketches out a tentative strategy for the Raiders’ approach to that selection in light of the Garoppolo signing.
The Raiders are not the only team that has been active this offseason. The Carolina Panthers recently traded a large package to the Chicago Bears for the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and the Panthers are now almost certainly going to use that pick on a quarterback. The Houston Texans pick second and the Indianapolis Colts pick fourth; both might also pick quarterbacks.
Thus, the likely worst-case quarterback-drafting scenario for the Raiders is that the top three quarterbacks (probably Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, and Kentucky’s Will Levis) are off the board by the time that Las Vegas picks, assuming the Raiders do not trade up.
One might think that signing Garoppolo would be the end of the Raiders’ considering a quarterback at No. 7. But drafting a quarterback actually makes more sense in light of the Garoppolo acquisition—in particular, a quarterback who might need some more time to develop.
When healthy, Garoppolo is one of the NFL’s best passers. The way that Garoppolo’s contract is structured provides for a potential out after the 2023 season, given that a hefty 2024 roster bonus will incentivize the Raiders to cut the former San Francisco 49er after one season if he does not (or cannot) perform. Still, if the Raiders keep Garoppolo upright (a big “if,” given his injury history), he could lead the team for at least the next couple of seasons.
So, why might the Raiders nevertheless draft a quarterback with their first pick? With Garoppolo in tow, the Raiders could add a promising, young quarterback to sit behind their new starter and learn the ropes for a season or two. Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Levis fit the bill on this score. One of the bigger knocks on Richardson—whom some see as the fourth-best quarterback in the 2023 class—is that he is severely underdeveloped as a pro prospect. Richardson simply needs some time to hone his athletic abilities (and arguably should have stayed another year in school). Levis has also garnered similar criticism.
No one denies that the two have rare arm talent and the potential to grow into franchise quarterbacks. But throwing either one into the fire on Day One as a rookie is dangerous. Thus, the Raiders could select either Richardson or—if available—Levis at No. 7 and stash their newly acquired rookie quarterback behind Garoppolo on the depth chart.
(To be sure, the draft-and-stash rationale for picking a quarterback could also apply to the Seattle Seahawks, who have a bridge quarterback in Geno Smith and pick No. 5 this year—two before the Raiders.)
If not a quarterback, the Raiders have a bevy of options with the seventh pick. The team could use some building blocks in the secondary, so a cornerback like Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon, Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr., or Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez would make a good amount of sense. The Raiders might also decide that they should double down on a team strength and get superstar pass rusher Maxx Crosby some help along the defensive line. This strategy would entail adding another EDGE rusher like Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson (high ceiling) or Clemson’s Myles Murphy (high floor). Iowa EDGE Lukas Van Ness has also been skyrocketing up draft boards; the Raiders drafting him at No. 7 would not be the biggest surprise on the first night of the selection process.
Should the Raiders end up not taking a quarterback with the seventh pick, the team could consider adding a passer in a later round. Again, the team should probably focus on developmental projects. Stanford’s Tanner McKee is a good example of a mid-round quarterback who could become a high-caliber pro passer with some dedicated coaching and a generous margin for error in his first year with a team.
Ultimately, given the structure of the rookie wage scale, the Raiders can get four years of cheap play from a quarterback they draft this year (five if they draft a passer in the first round and exercise the team option). If Garoppolo leads the team in 2023 and gets cut before the next season, that still leaves 2024 to 2026 (or 2027) for the Raiders to run with a quarterback on a rookie deal—one of the hallmarks of smart teambuilding in the modern era.
In the end, the Garoppolo signing is a big deal, not only because of what it means for the Raiders’ playoff hopes in 2023, but also because of what it permits the team to do with the seventh pick. The Raiders can draft a developmental quarterback and use the 2023 season to get him ready for NFL action. That said, the team could instead bring in another defender with the selection and try to make a playoff run ASAP.
