One of the craziest weekends in college football, between Alabama losing and Oklahoma's Red River Rivalry comeback. The chaos led to a 3-4 weekend, one of the first losing weekends in multiple weeks. The season record is now at 25-18-3, which is solid but needs to improve. There are not as many headliner games this Saturday, but it will have the action college football fans love.
Indiana at Michigan State (Michigan State -4.5, o/u 48.5)
Michael Penix Jr. and this Hoosier offense haven't been the same this season, and maybe it was a fluke last year. They've had a tough schedule early this season, losing to Penn State, Cincinnati, and Iowa. It doesn't get any easier this week facing one of the hottest teams in the country, Michigan State. The Spartans offense is headlined by Wake Forest transfer running back Kenneth Walker III, who might be the Heisman front runner. Payton Thorne has stepped in and made big plays with his arm. Indiana is heading to Spartan Stadium coming off a bye week, but quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is still banged up and maybe questionable. Michigan State's pass defense has been their weak point this season, but they can get to the quarterback. Indiana will not be able to keep up with the Spartans and how fast they can score. The Spartans own this matchup at 12-5 against the spread in their last 17 matchups. They will keep rolling on Saturday.
Michigan State -4.5
BYU at Baylor (Baylor -6.5, o/u 51)
Everything was looking great for BYU heading into last week as the tenth-ranked team in the country but laid an egg against Boise State. They were able to move the ball well against Boise but made too many mistakes with four turnovers to pull off the win. Now, heading to Baylor won't be easy as the Bears have been solid this year playing a physical brand of football. Baylor plays with a heavy rushing attack but will need to get going against a tough BYU defense. BYU is a top 30 defense in the country, only giving up over 20 points per game. They've also been stout against the run giving up 3.5 yards per rush. BYU's quarterback Jaren Hall can sling it, and running back, Tyler Allgeier is electric on the ground. BYU is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as an underdog. This will be a back and forth slugfest between two good teams.
Miami at North Carolina (North Carolina -7.5, o/u 63)
Two of the most disappointing teams in the ACC and in the country this season, Miami is now down quarterback D'Eriq King and North Carolina is 3-3 as a team that was the favorite to win the Coastal. Tyler Van Dyke looks to be the new starter for the U and looked pretty uninspiring when he came in for King. Miami's defense has had one of the worst secondaries in the country, giving up big play after big play. Sam Howell and the UNC offense need to find a spark, and it can happen here against Miami. Looking ahead to the NFL draft, Howell has fallen a bit and doesn't look like the sure top ten pick he was just two months ago. This needs to be a statement game for this Tar Heel offense. The Hurricanes are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven overall and 0-4 against the spread in their last five in Chapel Hill. Van Dyke isn't ready to head into UNC and take down the Tar Heels.
Kentucky at Georgia (Georgia -23.5, o/u 44.5)
The biggest game of the weekend, two undefeated SEC teams facing off, and neither are Alabama. This year, Kentucky has been a huge surprise with a strong rushing attack and Will Levis looking the part of a capable power five quarterback. However, they're facing off against the undisputed, top team in the country with one of the best defenses college football has seen in a long time. This Georgia front seven, led by Jordan Davis, can go two units deep, rotating all game long and staying fresh throughout the day. Nakobe Dean flies around from his inside linebacker spot and will run down Chris Rodriguez. Georgia quarterback JT Daniels is still a question mark heading into Saturday, and they may be without him again. The Georgia offense controls the ball and runs down the defense's throat, but it just isn't explosive. Kentucky unders are 6-1 in their last seven road underdog games. Whether Georgia can cover by three touchdowns or not, there won't be much scoring from Kentucky as their team total is only at 9.5. Georgia will control this game from kickoff to the final whistle.
Alabama at Mississippi (Alabama -17, o/u 57.5)
Coming off a loss, Alabama will be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder this week. Their only chance of making the College Football Playoff now will be to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC championship, which isn't out of the question. What makes Saban one of the greatest coaches of all time is his ability to motivate his players and put a game like last week behind them. This year, Mississippi State has been unlucky in their losses to Memphis and LSU but doesn't have the defense to slow down Bryce Young and this Alabama offense. Jameson Williams and John Metchie have been unstoppable on the outside for the Crimson Tide, and they won't be stopped on Saturday. Coming off a bye, Mississippi State still won't be ready for this Alabama offense.
UCLA at Washington (UCLA -1.5, o/u 55)
Washington is back home after losing at Oregon State and coming off a bye week. UCLA snapped their two-game skid beating Arizona last week. This year, UCLA has been the better team with Zach Charbonnet in the backfield but has a huge test against this Washington defense. Washington still has not found any identity on offense and struggles to move the ball. UCLA needs to find some way to move the ball through the air, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will have to take care of the football. The Huskies are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven, while the Bruins are great on the road 4-0 against the spread in their last four.
Arizona State at Utah (Pick, o/u 51)
Arizona State has played great so far this season, only losing to BYU on the road. Jayden Daniels has played more efficiently than ever, completing over 69% of his passes. The Sun Devils have shown their ability to beat teams on the ground with Rachaad White and Daniyel Ngata. Going on the road will be tough as Utah is always a hard place to play. The Utes have become a passing team, airing it out on over 53% of their plays. Arizona State has a strong secondary with Jack Jones, and it may cause problems for the Utes. The Sun Devils are 5-1 against the spread on the road in their last six.
Arizona State ML/Pick
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