Challenging way to start the year with the record at 8-8-2, but it's not horrible. There were a couple of bad picks with Washington and Texas last week, getting too cute with these plays when both these teams didn't come close to covering. As we learn more about these teams, the record will swing back the right way. There are a couple of big games this weekend, with Auburn traveling to the Big 10 to face #12 Penn State. Also, two juggernauts down south facing off in Gainesville with Alabama against Florida. Let's get the good vibes going and bounce back this week.
Boston College @ Temple, (Boston College -14.5, o/u57)
Boston College was able to cruise by UMass last week but failed to cover a large spread. Primarily because starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec suffered a season-ending injury. Temple struggled against Rutgers, turning the ball over multiple times and getting blown out. Even with Dennis Grosel stepping in at quarterback, Boston College is a much better football team. Grosel has shown he can orchestrate this offense to a solid level. Eagles will be able to steamroll Temple easily.
Boston College -14.5
Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo (Coastal -14, o/u58)
Coastal is exactly who we thought they were two weeks into the season - a high-powered offensive juggernaut that will contend for the Sun Belt championship. The one-year wonder Chanticleers may be here to stay led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall. One of the most accurate passers in the country, McCall can put up points at will. Buffalo didn't show up last week against Nebraska, but this is a talented MAC team that won't be held to three points again. The Chanticleers' overs are 6-0 in their last six games as a favorite. Coastal's defense isn't anything special, and Buffalo will be able to score enough to hit this over.
SMU @ Louisiana Tech (SMU -12.5, o/u66)
This Mustang offense is highly explosive through the air and on the ground. SMU has had two easy wins, but they've shown up on both sides of the ball. Louisiana Tech almost pulled off the upset week one against Mississippi State and followed that up by squeaking by Southeastern Louisiana. Tanner Mordecai has come in and kept this SMU offense upright after losing Shane Buechele. SMU is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. Mustangs will establish themselves as an AAC contender with a big win over LA Tech.
Alabama @ Florida (Alabama -14.5, o/u59.5)
One of the biggest games of the year, the Crimson Tide, are coming into Gainesville as a two-touchdown favorite. Bryce Young and this new offense look to be explosive yet again. However, beating a bad Miami team and Mercer shouldn't solidify this team as a national champion again. These teams lost a ton of NFL talent to the draft this past spring and are due for roster turnover. This will be the first test for both teams this year as Florida is still trying to find an identity on offense. Emory Jones hasn't been as sharp as some expected, but they have an X-factor with freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson. Florida is getting a lot of points here, but the over is the play. Alabama vs. Florida's over is 5-0 in their last five games.
Florida State @ Wake Forest (Wake Forest -4.5, o/u61.5)
The start of this season couldn't have gone worse for the Seminoles. A heartbreaking loss in overtime to Notre Dame followed it up with a walk-off hail mary touchdown against Jacksonville State. Now getting on the road to play against Wake Forest will be tough for Florida State. The Demon Deacons offense led by Sam Hartman is one of the country's fastest and most explosive units. This Seminole secondary has been torched the last two games and won't have it easy against Wake. Wake Forest is 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as a home team. Florida State is 4-10 against the spread in their previous 14 games. The Demon Deacons will control this game from the get-go against a deflated Florida State.
Wake Forest -4.5
Auburn @ Penn State (Penn State -5, o/u53)
Auburn looks to come into Penn State looking for an upset as two underwhelming offenses face off. This Auburn team is off to a great start blowing out Akron and Alabama State. Bo Nix has shown us the past two seasons that he isn't the quarterback that showed up the past two weeks. He will have a huge test against this Penn State defense that may be top 10 in the country. This Nittany Lions offense has looked better than last year, led by running back Noah Cain and wideout Jahan Dotson. Beaver Stadium will be rocking on Saturday in the first whiteout game since 2019. Bo Nix has struggled in away games. This Nittany Lions defense will create turnovers.
Penn State -5
Fresno State @ UCLA (UCLA -11, o/u63)
Coming into this game, UCLA had the week off after the huge win over LSU at home, and Fresno State had a get-right game against Cal-Poly after playing Oregon close two weeks ago. Fresno State has shown they can hang with the top teams in the PAC-12. Both these teams have explosive offenses and can hang 30+ each. Bulldogs' overs are 14-4-1 in their last 16 games against PAC-12 opponents. Fresno State has a good chance to stay in this game and keep it close. However, both these teams can score with the best of them, taking the over in a classic PAC-12 after dark game.
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