NFL: AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

We have a showdown between two of football’s best young quarterbacks in this year’s AFC Championship Game as the Bengals take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Author:
Fischer Smith
Publish date:
Jan 29, 2022 12:28 PM EST

Odds

Bengals +7.5, +275

Chiefs -7.5, -350

Over 54.5

Under 54.5

We have a showdown between two of football’s best young quarterbacks in this year’s AFC Championship Game as the Bengals take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Joe Burrow has played at an elite level during the last month and has his team in a position to reach its first Super Bowl in over 30 years. He will have to continue to perform as one of the league’s best signal-callers if he wants to keep Patrick Mahomes from reaching his third straight Super Bowl. Mahomes and the Chiefs hung 36 points in regulation on the league’s No. 1 defense in the Divisional Round and will have the benefit of a rocking stadium again on Sunday.

Kansas City has won 11 of its last 12 game, but that one loss was to the Bengals in Cincinnati only four weeks ago. Do Burrow and the Bengals have a shot to dethrone Kansas City as kings of the AFC? Or will the Chiefs become the fourth team to make it to three straight Super Bowls?

Let’s take a deeper look at how these teams match up.

Bengals Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

It’s no secret that Cincinnati has become a pass-first team, throwing on nearly 60% of its plays in the regular season. Burrow led the league lead in yards per pass attempt this season (8.8) and has the Bengals’ air attack as the fifth-most explosive offense in football, according to Sharp Football Analysis. In addition to Burrow, much of the offensive success can be attributed to its receiving corps, headlined by rookie Ja’Marr Chase. Chase hauled in 81 balls for 1,455 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in the regular season. Chase and his fellow receivers have to be licking their chops as they prepare to go up against a defense that gave up over 200 yards and four touchdowns to Buffalo’s Gabriel Davis a week ago.

The Chiefs have had a poor pass defense throughout the course of the season, ranking 23rd in success rate against the pass (48%) and 23rd in pass defense DVOA (-11.3%). If this unit wants to contain the Bengals passing game, its best bet is to establish a pass rush on a team that has been prone to giving up sacks. However, Kansas City ranks 31st in the league in defensive sack percentage this season (4.82%). The Chiefs are likely to have standout safety Tyrann Mathieu back after missing most of last week, but their defense will have its hands full dealing with an offense that put up 446 passing yards and 34 points with no turnovers four weeks ago.

Cincinnati has struggled to get its run game going this season, but it may perhaps find some success against the Chiefs who rank 29th in the league in success rate against the run (55%).

Chiefs Offense vs. Bengals Defense

If you know much about the NFL, you do not need to be told that the Chiefs have the No. 1 passing success rate this year (53%) or No. 3 pass DVOA (34.7%), to understand that the Chiefs have an elite passing offense. Kansas City also presents a fantastic offensive line that did not allow a sack when these teams faced off in Week 17. Meanwhile, the Bengals ranked 24th in defensive pass DVOA (-11.6%) and 25th in explosive pass rate on defense (9%).

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are nightmares regardless of the matchup. Expect Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing offense to do its thing again in the conference title game.

Although the Chiefs do not run the ball a whole lot, they have had a lot of success this season when they have run it. Kansas City ranks second in the league in run success rate (56%) and has averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground this season. The Bengals have not been great against the run this year, ranking 21st in success rate versus the run on the season (50%) and allowing 5.5 yards per carry over its last three games.

Betting Analysis and Pick

There is not likely to be any shortage of points in this battle as both defenses will probably struggle to contain the opposing passing attack. Given that Kansas City’s passing and running game are set up for success, it is tough to see them losing outright in this spot. However, its defense, both run and pass, is not good enough for it to be over a touchdown favorite against Cincinnati’s high-powered offense - especially after the performance we saw from Kansas City’s secondary last week. Back the Bengals with the points and back the over in what hopes to be a thrilling AFC Championship Game with points coming in bunches.

Prediction: Bengals +7.5, Over 54.5

*Go All Access - Subscribe to NFL Draft Bible today and receive a one-year subscription to Sports Illustrated magazine, for FREE!