Was There a Falcons 'Botched' Turning Point in Loss at Cowboys?
Even 40-point losses have turning points. It's not hard to find it in the latest debacle for the Atlanta Falcons.
When the game was still close, Atlanta coach Arthur Smith elected to go for fourth-and-7 instead of attempting a 49-yard field goal with a little more than four minutes remaining in the first quarter. At the time, the Cowboys led 7-3. Matt Ryan couldn't find anyone open on fourth down and sailed an incomplete pass in the direction of Russell Gage.
After that play, the Cowboys outgained the Falcons 306-100 and scored 36 unanswered points to coast to a 43-3 victory.
Judging by the score, it's clear the Falcons needed touchdowns Sunday against the Cowboys. Generally, settling for final goals doesn't win NFL games anyway.
But going for fourth-and-7 inside of Younghoe Koo's range in the first quarter is borderline irresponsible. The analytics people may disagree, but it was too early in the game to chase points on fourth-and-long.
One thing analytics don't measure is momentum. Admittedly, "momentum" is an overused word that broadcasters apply to situations where there's no other explanation for how an NFL game changes so quickly.
But on make or break plays like fourth down, momentum definitely exists. Nothing can swing a game in the other direction quicker than a failed fourth-down attempt on the road.
What transpired after the failed Atlanta conversion was one of the most lopsided first halves of the Super Bowl era. While the Falcons went 0-for-1 on fourth down, the Cowboys converted two fourth-down attempts. Dallas scored touchdowns following those conversions and blocked a punt for another touchdown on its way to outscoring Atlanta by 33 points in the first half.
The Cowboys added another fourth-down conversion for a touchdown in the second half for good measure.
Given that Dak Prescott threw for 9.4 yards per pass, and the Cowboys posted 431 yards, in all likelihood, Dallas would have won even if Atlanta kicked a field goal on that fourth-and-7.
But as much as the Atlanta fan base wants to see wins, tangible progress is really the goal. Smith must not see much progress with his team, especially defense, if he finds it necessary to go for fourth-and-7 in the first quarter.
Koo is 15 of 16 on field-goal attempts this year. He's made 90 percent beyond 39 yards since the start of the 2020 season.
The Falcons didn't exactly come into Sunday as world beaters on fourth down either. They were 4-for-10 before the failed conversion in Dallas. That percentage had the Falcons ranked 22nd in the league prior to Week 10.
Atlanta won't have much time to practice its fourth-down offense or much of anything else before hosting the New England Patriots on Thursday night. But the Falcons will need to be better in every area, including decision-making on fourth downs.
Opponents have outscored the Falcons, 65-13, in the last five quarters. So "lopsided'' is the right word ... and yes, even "lopsided'' starts with one play.
