Falcons Face Red Zone Test Against Buffalo
Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith isn't one for narratives generated from small sample sizes. And it doesn't get much than two.
The Falcons last two games have come down to success in the red zone or lack thereof.
Two weeks ago at the San Francisco 49ers, the Falcons didn't score a touchdown on four trips inside the 20-yard line. The Falcons defense also allowed the 49ers to score three touchdowns on four red-zone possessions.
On Sunday in Atlanta against the Detroit Lions, the Falcons scored two touchdowns on their two red-zone tries and held the Lions without one on their four possessions in close.
Both the 49ers and Lions outgained the Falcons. But thanks to the red-zone efficiency, the Falcons beat the Lions 20-16. Atlanta lost to the 49ers 31-13.
"It's a strategy game. Going in [to the red zone], there's a lot of variables," Smith said. "One thing can throw you off. You may sit there and say 'Hey, we've got guys wide open.' Well, great, their d-lineman made a play or whatever happens.
"The defense does have a say, but I thought we were better [against Detroit] in situational football. That certainly helped us -- red zone defense, red zone offense. Usually when you win, that usually goes your way."
The red zone is key in nearly every NFL game, and it figures to be Sunday when the Falcons face the Buffalo Bills with their playoff hopes on the line.
Buffalo is ranked 13th in offensive touchdown percentage in the red zone (60.29%). The Bills have been even better lately, having scored touchdowns on 64.71% in the last three games. That's eighth-best in the NFL over that span.
The Bills are also 11th in opponent's red-zone touchdown percentage this season. But in the last three games, they have allowed the opposition to score touchdowns on two-thirds (66.67%) of their red-zone opportunities.
Buffalo is significantly better than Atlanta on paper. The Bills will probably gain more yards than the Falcons, who have lost the yardage battle in 10 straight weeks.
The last time the Falcons outgained an opponent was Oct. 10 against the New York Jets.
Red-zone efficiency becomes vitally important for teams that might not have many drives going into the opponent's 20-yard line. The Falcons settling for a field goal on either of their red-zone possessions against Detroit would likely have resulted in a loss.
The game also changes if Detroit scores touchdowns on any of its red-zone possessions. It was the first time this season that the Falcons held an opponent without a red-zone touchdown.
One of Atlanta's touchdowns against the Lions came on a Cordarrelle Patterson run on fourth-and-inches from the Detroit 6-yard line. Early in the first quarter against San Francisco, the Falcons failed to convert a fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line.
Both games are very different if those plays go the other way.
With a playoff berth on the line, it would not be surprising to see Smith remain aggressive in the red zone. The Falcons have attempted 20 fourth-down tries this season, which is in the middle of the NFL pack, but Atlanta has gone for it on fourth six times in the last three games, including four inside the opponent's 20.
If the Falcons are going to beat Buffalo and keep their playoff hopes alive, red zone success on both sides of the ball is key.
