Watch: Nostrathomas Predicts! It’s Rivalry Week for the Falcons in New Orleans

Tom Pollin

We’ve already reached Week 10 of the 2019 NFL season and the Falcons are ready to face their first NFC South, their arch-rival New Orleans Saints. The Falcons are 1-7 as they come out of their bye week and into the second half of their season. New Orleans is 7-1 and looking to keep pace with the San Francisco 49ers at the top of the NFC.

So far this season, Nostrathomas is 8-4 against the spread with his picks here on Falcon Maven and 7-3 straight-up. Now, let’s see if we can put a big week together as we come out of the bye.

Atlanta Falcons +13 at New Orleans Saints (1 PM ET; Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA)

New Orleans is not unbeatable, but the Falcons would have to raise their play in practically every aspect of the game to get the job done this week.

The Saints are similar to the Falcons in that they don’t create many turnovers on defense. That makes it tough for them to flip field position and means their offense does most of their scoring after driving the length of the field.

The Falcons will be challenged in the one thing they do well on defense, stopping the run. Running back Alvin Kamara is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and his backup, Latavius Murray is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Both backs are also quality receivers. Between them and wide receiver Michael Thomas, New Orleans will have plenty of weapons to challenge the Falcons sinking secondary.

Looking at the trends, the Falcons have lost and failed to cover in six of their last eight games against the Saints including three of the last four in New Orleans. The Saints are also on a six-game winning streak against the spread.

Despite that streak, Nostrathomas is not picking the Saints to cover the 13-points. New Orleans has only won one game by more than one score this season. The Falcons have also made a habit of starting slow, letting their opponent run out to a big lead, then finishing fast.

The pick, Nostrathomas takes the New Orleans Saints to win but not by more than 13 points. The Atlanta Falcons will cover.

New Orleans Saints 32 Atlanta Falcons 24

And if you want two other predictions to fill out your three-bet parlay this week:

Miami Dolphins +10.5 at Indianapolis Colts (4:05 PM ET: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)

Again, Nostrathomas is not picking Miami to win this game but a double-digit spread is a lot to ask of the Colts to cover. Especially with veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer starting this week at quarterback.

Indianapolis has not won or lost a game by more than one score all season. The Dolphins have also covered the spread in their last four games.

This is a tough game to pull the trigger on but pick the Colts to win while Miami keeps the game within one score.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Miami Dolphins 15

Baltimore Ravens -10.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (1 PM ET; Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)

The Ravens took down the New England Patriots last Sunday night but don’t expect a letdown against Cincinnati. Baltimore is breathing down the Patriots’ necks for top seed in the conference and aren’t about to let down now that they have the tiebreaker advantage. The Bengals will also have rookie quarterback Ryan Finley making the first start of his career.

Baltimore Ravens 34 Cincinnati Bengals 13