Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Examining the Challenges Lions Quarterback Matthew Stafford Presents to the Giants Defense
In Week 7, the New York Giants faced a struggling Arizona Cardinals team who's 2-3-1 record has them in the basement of their division, and who boast a dangerous offense but are trying to overcome a struggling defense.
Ultimately the Giants would fall way short in what should have been a winnable game. But the Giants will get another opportunity against a team in a winnable game, this one against a struggling Detroit Lions team with a 2-3-1 record, a dangerous offense, a struggling defense, and who are in last place in their division.
The similarities between the Giants' opponents last week and this are somewhat uncanny. But where the Cardinals feature an unconventional offense built around a rare and dynamic athlete in rookie quarterback Kyler Murray, the Lions' offense is powered by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford.
Stafford is athletic enough, but while nobody will confuse his ability to run with Murray's, the two do share incredible arm talent. The difference between Stafford and Murray is that while Murray has a howitzer of an arm and can throw accurately on the run, he hasn't unleashed it yet this year.
Stafford, on the other hand, is that per NextGen Stats, he is third in the league in intended air yards, second in completed air yards, and second distance thrown beyond the first down marker.
Stafford is throwing for more than an air-yard more per attempt than last year, 3.2 more air yards per completion, and is on pace to throw for roughly 1,200 more air yards than he did a year ago.
Stafford has always been known as a big-armed quarterback, but not only is he airing it out like rarely before in his career, he is playing some of the most efficient football of his career as well.
His 13 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio is among the best in the NFL, and his completion percentage above expectation is currently tenth in the NFL while being sixth in passing attempts of 20 yards or more.
That's not great news for a Giants defense that has struggled to defend the pass. Per Football Outsiders, the Giants' pass defense is 27th in league with a 23.1% DVOA and is a unit that has been 23.1% less efficient than the NFL average.
(For those not familiar with DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, Football Outsiders explains in detail here. The short version is that a “0” is considered league-average; good offense gets positive scores, and the good defense gets negative scores.)
The Giants rank 23rd in the NFL in terms of passing yards per game, which isn't good, but also not terrible. They're eight yards per game better than the Baltimore Ravens and eight yards per game worse than the Seattle Seahawks.
However, the Giants look considerably worse when we look beyond the basic stats, as they are ahead of only the Miami Dolphins in yards per attempt (8.9). Meanwhile, the Giants are tied for 25th with opposing passers completing 69% of their passes against them.
Those two numbers go a long way toward explaining why the Giants are 23rd in yards per game while also being fifth in opposing attempts per game. Opposing passers don't have to attempt a lot of passes against the Giants because they are completing them at a high rate, and they are picking up yardage with those completions.
The Giants also have a nasty habit of giving up big plays through the air. They have given up 30 passing plays of 20+ yards, the second-highest total in the NFL, and seven plays of 40+ yards, the third-worst mark in the league.
Taken together, the Giants' primary focus against the Lions should be clear: Do not let Stafford beat them with the long ball.
We know from his trends thus far that Stafford is going to throw the ball. Now that the Lions leading running back Kerryon Johnson is out, Stafford will throw it often, and he will throw it down the field.
Given all this, how do the Giants stop it?
The first step will be to reassert the Giants' identity on defense. In adapting to the Cardinals' offense, the Giants used a smaller defense that ran more zone coverage than would ideally suit their collective skill set.
With a quarterback like Kyler Murray, that's not a bad decision, and they did hold him to roughly 100 yards passing.
But against a more conventional offense, the Giants are going to need to play to their secondary's strength, and that is man coverage.
The Lions have a big receiving corps, with Kenny Golladay coming in at 6-foot, 4 inches, Marvin Jones (who caught four touchdowns last week) at 6-foot 2 inches, and rookie TE T.J. Hockenson at 6-foot 5 inches.
Cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and DeAndre Baker are neither big nor athletic, so they will have to be careful with how aggressive they get in man coverage. They will want to disrupt routes early in the play to throw off timing, but they don't want to get bullied and be thrown off the route themselves--or draw a penalty.
The Giants should also concentrate on dialing up as much pressure as possible. Despite being a pass-heavy offense, the Lions have done a good job of protecting Stafford. Stafford has been able to throw relatively comfortably, and their 12 sacks allowed is tied for 21st in the league.
The Giants' pass rush has been better than anticipated, but it still isn't very scary compared to some in the league. The addition of Deone Bucannon will hopefully give the Giants more speed and coverage ability over the middle, as well as another athletic defender to send on blitzes along with Alec Ogletree, Jabrill Peppers, or Grant Haley.
If the Giants can scheme pressure, affect Stafford, and disrupt the timing of both his passes and the Lions' receivers, they should be able to slow Detroit's offense down.
Of course, that's easier said than done as remember, Stafford has been playing much better than his 2-3-1 record would indicate. But with this being a very winnable game for the Giants--who desperately need a win--they have to go at this with everything they have.
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