Over/Under Predictions for the Giants' 2020 Season
After three dismal seasons, there’s nowhere to go for the New York Giants but up, right?
Truthfully, we won’t know that for sure until the season gets underway. Still, we can make some projections based on season averages, which I’ve done in setting numbers for the following seven over/under forecasts.
While much still needs to be determined regarding how the roster is going to look and how the coaches plan to deploy personnel, let’s have a little fun trying to take an educated guess on some over/under numbers.
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
The Giants have won 12 games in the last three seasons, which averages out to four wins per season, not a very promising average if you have your sights set on at least seven wins (since one can’t get a half win).
Further complicating things, of course, is the fallout resulting from the effects of COVID-19, specifically on a team like the Giants who have a new coaching staff and who haven’t been able to physically practice what they’ve been taught during the virtual classroom sessions this spring.
At the end of the day, football is football, and while I can appreciate head coach Joe Judge’s belief that the more prepared mentally a team is, the better their chances of hitting the ground running.
But like I said in a recent podcast, knowing how to do something and being able to do it are two very different things. You can know how to ride a bicycle, but if you’ve never done it, there’s no guarantee that you’ll be able to do it the first time you try.
With all that said, I’m going with the under for the Giants in the win column. I do think they’ll get to six wins in 2020, and, hey, let’s face it—any record better than what they’ve recorded the last two years would be welcomed.
Despite having a solid assistant coaching staff, I would not be surprised if there is a lot of sloppy football this year.
Prediction: Under
Over/Under: 33.6 sacks on defense
As you can see by the average of the last three seasons (our over/under total), the Giants haven’t had much of a pass rush. The last time they went over 40 sacks for a season was in 2014 when they recorded 47.0 sacks.
That year, they had the proverbial “blue goose” pass rusher in Jason Pierre-Paul, the last Giants defender to post double-digit sacks until edge Markus Golden recorded ten last season.
Since then, the Giants have been trying to generate a pass rush via a scheme. The problem is that the scheme the last two seasons didn’t work as drawn up, partially due to the coaching insistence of forcing square pegs into round holes and partly due to the back end of the defense not being able to hold its coverage long enough for the front seven to finish the job.
The Giants upgraded the back end of the defense to help their team strength, the defensive line, and do its job. That job, I suspect, is to occupy multiple blockers and push the pocket, thereby widening gaps for the edge rushers and/or blitzers to get home.
It’s a sound plan, but the question is, do they have the talent to get home consistently? The last time the giants had over 40 sacks I a season was in 2014 when they recorded 47 sacks, 12.5 of which were recorded by “blue goose” pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.
The Giants are hoping to get Markus Golden, the first player to record double-digit sacks since JPP, back on the roster. Even if they do, expecting Golden to generate the bulk of the sacks is probably n unrealistic expectation.
They need production from youngsters Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines. It would also be nice for free agent Kyler Fackrell to make the most of his opportunities and come close to matching or exceeding his double-digit sack season from 2010.
Can the Giants do it? I’m going to say yes, they’ll top the average of 33.6 sacks—but just barely.
Prediction: Over
Over/Under: 4,000 passing yards for Daniel Jones
This one is pretty easy as far as I’m concerned. Let me explain why.
Jones threw for 3,027 yards last year in 13 games. If he stays healthy, I think the combination of the vertical offense offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is believed to be looking to install, and the improvement in the offensive line will put Jones into a good position to easily top 4,000 yards.
As a bonus, if Garrett plans to get running back Saquon Barkley out wide to take advantage of mismatches he poses in the passing game, that alone should help Jones' yardage total.
Prediction: Over
Over/Under: 1,150 rushing yards for Saquon Barkley
If Barkley stays healthy, he easily tops 1,150 yards rushing for two reasons outside of his generational talent.
First, whereas Barkley had to scratch and claw to pick up every one of his 1,003 yards last year, I think the offensive line he’ll be running behind this year will make his life a lot easier.
More importantly, I think we won’t be seeing Barley execute as many inside zone schemes which weren’t always successful last year. Instead, we’ll see more of a mix to the outside, which can take advantage of his explosiveness and ability to turn the corner.
Those two factors, combined with a full and healthy season, should translate into a highly productive season for the third-year running back.
Prediction: Over
Over/Under: 2,000 receiving yards between TE Evan Engram and WR Darius Slayton
Last year, Evan Engram and Darius Slayton combined for 1,207 receiving yards or 29.6% of the Giants passing game production. This total could have easily been much higher had Slayton, who missed the first two games with a hamstring ailment, and Engram, who missed eight games with injuries, been on the field for all 16 games.
I have no idea what kind of physical condition both players are in right now. Still, one thing I do feel confident about is that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett isn’t going to, for example, waste Engram’s talents by not having him like up wide more often.
Engram, assuming he’s over his foot issue, can very easily split the seam and do some serious damage to a defense’s secondary. But for that to happen, he can’t be asked to be mostly an in-line blocker.
Meanwhile, Slayton got better with each passing week last year, finishing two games in the second half of the season with 100-yard receiving performances.
He still has a few rough spots in his game to iron out. When you consider how far he came from his early days in camp, it’s clear that Slayton, a deep vertical threat, is poised for a big year.
Prediction: Over
Over/Under: 3.5 Pro Bowlers
The number of Pro Bowlers that a team has is usually tied into its won-loss record.
Barring the Giants getting to at least an 8-8 record, reaching the over on 3.5 Pro Bowlers is going to be tricky. But some potential candidates should receive consideration if they have strong showings.
First is obviously Barkley. He’s been there before, and there’s no reason to think he won’t get there again if he stays healthy and posts the kind of numbers that he’s capable of posting.
The other player I thought should have gone to the Pro Bowl last year but didn’t was punter Riley Dixon. I’m still not sure he’s going to be able to pull it off this year even if he has another strong season, but I’d pay closer attention to his punting this year.
Special teamer Nate Ebner could also be a guy to watch for the Pro Bowl. In New England, Ebner was mostly in the shadows of Matthew Slater, whom I believe is a future Hall of Famer.
As for Ebner, now that he’s with the Giants, I believe he has a chance to emerge as the special teams leader and deliver a performance that is going to have people taking notice.
Prediction: Under
Over/Under: 3.5 sacks for Leonard Williams
I can’t think of any player acquisition that has polarized the fan base as much as defensive lineman Leonard Williams. This is thanks to the team’s decision to give up draft capital to acquire a player who was going to hit free agency anyway.
While the thought process behind the acquisition itself remains one I doubt I’ll ever understand, Williams isn’t a bad player. He might not have the numbers to show for it. Still, his presence on the field tends to lend itself toward other positive things happening.
With that said, I’m going to go with the under because based on the film study we’ve done here on Giants Country, the pass rush isn't going to come from just one or two players.
For that and other reasons, I'd be surprised if Williams, who had his best year sack wise in 2016 when he recorded seven playing in then-Jets head coach Todd Bowles' defense, matches seven sacks.
Prediction: Under
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