Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
What the Experts are Predicting for the Giants' 2020 Record
No one knows what the final NFL rosters will look like. No one knows what injuries or unexpected circumstances will strike a team. And no one knows how some of these new coaching staffs around the league will mold their new teams into competitors.
Yet every year, there are exercises done that attempt to predict the outcome of a team's regular-season schedule despite all these unknowns. These forecasts are based on coaching staffs, free agent and draft acquisitions, and past success/failures.
We have no idea of how the 2020 Giants will fare in head coach Joe Judge's first season, but we were curious to see what others thought the Giants' 2020 won-loss record might look like. Most of the samples we saw had the Giants winning at least six games, which would be an improvement over last year's four-win total.
Let's take a look at some of those forecasts and the reasons behind them--and if they make sense based on what we know to be true of the Giants' schedule.
Fox Sports
Reason: "It's close to a push, but I would take the under because of new coaches and new coordinators. Also, they've only won more than 7 games once since 2013, and their schedule is tough, they're going to face the AFC North ... they're going to face the NFC West."
The logic partially makes sense because the task of preparing a team under a brand new coaching staff is difficult enough as it is. But when you add in the challenges of preparing a team under the COVID-19 quarantine, now you have a whole new challenge to overcome if you're Judge.
The Giants, who aren't alone in having a new coaching staff (though they are the only team among those they'll face whose head coach has never before held the role), also aren't alone in having to prepare their football team virtually.
Although they will face two of the best divisions in the NFL (the AFC North and the NFC West) this year, it's important to remember that every team has personnel changes, though admittedly, some have more than others.
To suggest the Giants will win fewer than 6.5 games sounds as though the Giants are being sold short.
Bleacher Report
Reason: "A Giants team trying to upgrade its offense and piece together a pass rush will face some stiff tests. Beyond their four games against the Cowboys and Eagles, the Giants will play host to the 49ers in Week 3 and travel to face the 14-win Ravens in Week. Any improvement the Giants make in 2020 will likely be incremental."
Six wins seems to be a popular prediction among the samples we viewed, as it acknowledges the Giants did improve their team in free agency and the draft.
But let's look at the offense for a moment. The Giants' young offense and its development will be a point of emphasis in their 2020 season.
With three top-10 draft picks headlining the offense (running back Saquon Barkley, quarterback Daniel Jones, and offensive tackle Andrew Thomas), the talent is there, but will the chemistry will be?
Logic would dictate that they'll need a full year in the new offensive system so that they can play faster and build that chemistry.
Think back to when the Giants moved on from Tom Coughlin for Ben McAdoo and how Eli Manning, a veteran quarterback at the time, ended up admitting that by the time the offense got to the second season of McAdoo's system, they were more comfortable and able to play faster.
Might the same happen for a Giants team that has new schemes on both sides of the ball? It wouldn't be shocking if it did.
Sporting News
Reason: "Because the Giants are a retooling team themselves, predicting their 2020 outcome against several other retooling teams is difficult. But, at least on paper, Judge has a strong enough roster to make noise. New York just might need a little help in a crowded NFC field."
The Giants' young roster does match a handful of some youth movements in the league, as the Giants are set to face several teams this year that are also rebuilding.
But a key for the Giants will be establishing its identity, something this team hasn't done in years. Will they be a smashmouth offense? Will they aspire to become the second coming of the Greatest Show of Turf?
And what will their defensive identity be? The coaches say they want to be smart, tough, and fundamentally sound, but that's what every team aspires to be.
While the Giants figure it out, their goal should be to come out as the best of the retooling teams and tally some wins to build confidence and to help give them some clarity as to the type of team they are.
WFAN
Reason: "This would obviously welcome more frustration to a fan base that is losing patience. The Giants have been to the playoffs once since winning the Super Bowl in the 2011 season. A glass-half-full look where EVERYTHING goes right for the Giants still probably, at best, puts them at 9-7 and a borderline playoff team. But a lot would need to break their way for that to happen in 2020."
Whether the Giants finish with a winning record in 2020 could very well come down to a couple of bounces of the ball.
For the Giants in recent years, it seems that anything that could go wrong during games has, a far cry from when everything seemed to bounce the Giants' way in their last two Super Bowl runs.
But that's why you line up and play the games. Anything can happen, and if the Giants can avoid significant injuries, history has shown that sometimes teams with brand new coaching staffs who get the so-called "easy" schedules can take the league by surprise.
Giants Country's Jackson Thompson
Prediction: 8-8
Reason: "With a brand new coaching staff, a second-year quarterback, a handful of rookies, and an unprecedented offseason program, the odds are stacked against the Giants to overachieve in 2020."
Even with a new coaching staff, and for as many holes still on the roster, the Giants have some talent that has proven capable of winning games, such as Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley.
Now with the addition of rookie Andrew Thomas at the offensive tackle spot, Jones and Barkley might have the protection necessary to carry the Giants to a couple more wins this year.
On defense, new free agent signings Blake Martinez at inside linebacker and James Bradberry at cornerback might not boast the elite talent to carry the unit.
However, they fill a pair of critical holes and bring leadership and mentorship to the other young players. With three defensive backs selected in this year's draft, the secondary has the depth and talent to be a core strength on defense as well.
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