2021 NFL Draft: Analyzing The Athletic’s Early Projections for the Jaguars
While we continue to march through the 2020 season, we will take looks at mock drafts from throughout the football industry to reflect on what outside projections for the Jacksonville Jaguars look like.
The Jaguars currently hold the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, along with the Los Angeles Rams' first-round pick as a result of the Jalen Ramsey trade. As of this writing, the Jaguars have 11 picks in the upcoming draft.
Not much has changed for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the past week. They are still looking for a new head coach and general manager, while Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still far and away the favorite to be the No. 1 overall selection in April.
There will undoubtedly be some clarity on all things Jaguars sooner than later, but for now we are left waiting, thinking, and projecting ahead for the future.
This of course means mock drafts. For every team other than the eight still in the playoffs, attention has shifted toward the 2021 NFL Draft. This year's draft is set to be especially important for the Jaguars considering their 11 draft picks, which includes two picks in the first two rounds apiece.
To get an idea of what positions or which names could be options for the Jaguars in the first round, we take a look at some of the players selected for them in recent mock drafts from national analysts and sites. For each pick, our own analysis will be included.
The latest mock draft to release new projections is via Dane Brugler of The Athletic. Brugler included a second-round mock, giving us a few more potential Jaguars picks to analyze ahead of April.
With this in mind, what do we make of how Brugler picked players for the Jaguars? Do the players fulfill needs and are good fits, or are there any reaches involved? We weigh in here.
No. 1 overall: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence
Worried you might get bored of seeing the same mock at No. 1 over and over until April? Well, get used to it. This isn't the kind of draft where there are legitimate questions about who will be the top pick. This is the kind of draft with a slam dunk consensus top player, and that player happens to be Clemson's Trevor Lawrence.
There is zero doubt the Jaguars are set to use the No. 1 overall pick on a quarterback, so that does eliminate some guesswork here. After all, owner Shad Khan made the team's intentions clear when he spoke to the media on January 4.
"But what’s evaded the history of the Jags, really, has been a franchise quarterback. And I think what’s unique, certainly, is that we have the ability now to make a choice and it’s going to define the franchise moving forward," Khan said.
Lawrence is 34-2 as a starter, having only lost in the College Football Playoffs (as a sophomore, to LSU in the Championship and as a junior to Ohio State in the semifinals). As a freshman, Lawrence defeated the Alabama Crimson Tide for the National Championship.
In his career, Lawrence completed 66% of his passes for 10,098 yards (8.9 yards per attempt, 9.8 adjusted yards per attempt) for 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He also rushed for 943 yards and 18 touchdowns.
The only question people likely have about Lawrence and the Jaguars at this point is the idea that he could always pull an Eli Manning and dictate his landing spot. That seems like a reach and a severe unlikelihood until Lawrence indicates differently, however, so Lawrence is going to continue to be the pick here at No. 1 in every mock out there, including Brugler's.
No. 25 (via Los Angeles Rams): Alabama DT Christian Barmore
Anyone who follows my draft thoughts knows what I think of Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore, who Brugler mocked to the Jaguars with the Los Angeles Rams' pick. The redshirt sophomore may not declare for the 2021 NFL Draft, but if he does he will easily be one of the best defensive tackles in the entire class.
It helps Barmore's case that arguably his best three games with the Crimson Tide were his last three -- and all were on huge stages. In the SEC Championship, College Football Playoff Semifinal, and the National Championship, Barmore collected 15 tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks, one forced fumble, and took home the Defensive MVP award from Monday's win over Ohio State.
Whether as a run defender or a pass-rusher, Barmore has shown really all of the traits one would want to see in a young pass rusher. He is long, athletic, can hold the point of attack, and can split double teams. He may need more seasoning due to his overall limited college experience, but his jump from two sacks in 2019 to eight in 2020 wasn't by accident.
The Jaguars have a pair of good young defensive tackles in DaVon Hamilton and Doug Costin, but more help is clearly needed along the interior of the defensive line. Taven Bryan is a bust at this point and the Jaguars don't have many other options to push the pocket from the middle. The Jaguars got just 2.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 12 quarterback hits from their defensive tackle group in 2020, so this is a big need and, frankly, is the right pick here.
No. 33: Ohio State OG Wyatt Davis
Don't be surprised to see Ohio State players mocked to the Jaguars with all of the Urban Meyer rumors flying. In this instance, Brugler mocks a former Meyer recruit to the Jaguars in the form of offensive guard Wyatt Davis.
An Associated Press First-Team All-American selection in 2019, Davis has been one of the nation's most consistent and generally impressive blockers over the last two seasons. He is often mocked in the first round or is at least one of the first guards off the board in mocks, so there is no real questioning his value at No. 33 overall. It makes sense for that to be his draft range.
But should the Jaguars use their third-highest pick on an offensive guard considering the massive need at cornerback? It is hard to make that argument, even if Davis has a substantially higher ceiling than right guard A.J. Cann.
Cann isn't a top-tier offensive lineman by any definition, but he is a solid player who is fresh off the best year of his career. He is durable and became more consistent as both a run and pass blocker in 2020. With that said, he did still have occasional periods of lulls in protection, which is something the Jaguars don't want to have in front of Trevor Lawrence in 2021.
But Cann is at least a starting guard in the NFL. If the Jaguars are going to upgrade their offensive line, tackle seems more likely than guard, though the new regime could look to get younger in the middle.
No. 45 (via the Minnesota Vikings): Penn State TE Pat Freiermuth
Outside of quarterback, is there any position more devoid of talent on Jacksonville's roster than tight end? Cornerback at least has CJ Henderson. Defensive tackle has Hamilton and Costin.
But at tight end there is nothing. Tyler Eifert had a down year and just didn't look like the dynamic passing threat he used to be. James O'Shaughnessy is likely best as a backup. Josh Oliver has played in just four games since being drafted in the third round in 2019.
As a result, it is hard to find any holes in Brugler mocking Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth to the Jaguars with the pick they got from Minnesota for Yannick Ngakoue.
Freiermuth finished his college career with 92 receptions for 1,185 yards (12.9 yards per catch) and 16 touchdowns. He would be a reliable middle of the field target for Lawrence to develop chemistry with early in his career, something the Jaguars don't currently have on the roster.
Do the Jaguars have more important positions of need than tight end? Sure they do. But they do need to find a long term answer at the position, and doing so in the same year they pick a franchise quarterback only makes sense.
