4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 15 Vs. the Ravens
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-12) coming off a 12th-consecutive loss to the Tennessee Titans, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 15 against the Baltimore Ravens.
QB Gardner Minshew
After hearing chants from a few thousand fans in TIAA Bank Field, head coach Doug Marrone replaced Mike Glennon with Gardner Minshew in the second half of last week’s game against the Titans. Derrick Henry was literally outproducing Glennon by the time that Minshew relieved him.
Glennon finished with the ninth-worst completion percentage (56.5%), the third-worst yards per attempt (3.7) and the second-worst passer rating (46.5) of his entire career, despite playing a Tennessee defense that ranked bottom-five in the majority of pass defense efficiency metrics going into last week. Minshew played decently, as he completed 18 of 31 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown and added two rushes for 22 yards, albeit he was working in garbage time as the Jaguars were down 31-3 by the time he entered the game.
Minshew unsurprisingly played a very Minshew-esque game. He was fidgety in the pocket, unwilling to be aggressive, and struggled when his first read wasn’t open. His playing style is not one of a franchise quarterback, which is clear at this point, though his scrappiness does give Jacksonville a chance to claw its way to a victory in certain circumstances.
Unfortunately, this week does not present one of those certain circumstances. Minshew plays at his best against defenses that are conservative and allow short underneath passes with underwhelming pass rushes (see: Week 1 versus the Colts), but the Baltimore Ravens do not sport that kind of defense.
The Ravens lead the league in blitz rate for the third season in a row. It ranks eighth in ESPN’s team pass rush win rate metric and just 21st in pressure rate because it forces quarterbacks to get the ball out quickly. If Minshew is able to successfully identify and hit his primary reads, he could find success against this defense that just allowed a similarly easily-flustered quarterback in Baker Mayfield to throw for 343 yards and two touchdowns- but it seems far more likely that Minshew’s conservativeness combined with Baltimore’s aggressiveness will ultimately result in another poor performance from the offense.
LT Cam Robinson
Jacksonville’s entire offensive line could be in for a long day against Baltimore’s talented front seven- but left tackle Cam Robinson has the marquee and likely toughest individual matchup against former Jaguar Yannick Ngakoue.
Ngakoue has lined up on the left side of the offensive line on 81.3% of pass-rushing snaps for Baltimore this season (per Pro Football Focus). Since his first game as a Raven in Week 8, he leads the team in pressures but has registered just a single sack. Ngakoue has especially played well in the past two weeks, as he earned three pressures against Dallas in Week 13 before accumulating five last week against Cleveland; he earned his secon-- and third-highest grades as a Raven in that span.
Meanwhile, Robinson has struggled in Jacksonville’s past two games. He allowed five pressures against Minnesota in Week 13 before allowing four against Tennessee last week, which is concerning because those teams rank 27th and 32nd, respectively, in pressure rate this season.
Frankly, Robinson will need to keep Ngakoue in check on Sunday for Minshew to have any chance at success. It’s likely that Minshew will hold on to the ball for too long and initiate lots of scramble drills, which makes Robinson’s job harder, but if Minshew plays smart and decisive then Ngakoue and the rest of Baltimore’s defense shouldn’t cause too much havoc.
The starting strong safety
Safeties Andrew Wingard and Josh Jones have been in a constant rotation in the past few weeks due to various injuries to Jones. In week 12, Wingard started and played 100% of snaps sans Jones, who was on injured reserve with a chest injury; in week 13, Jones returned and played 100% of snaps compared to 3% for Wingard; and last week, Jones started again but played just 16 snaps before injuring his shoulder, which allowed Wingard to relieve him again.
Josh Jones was limited in practice on Wednesday and left last week's game with a shoulder injury, but his presence would be huge against Baltimore, which ranks third in neutral situation early down run rate this season (per rbsdm.com). Jones ranks third in tackles (58) and sixth in PFF run defense grade (70.9) on the team this season, while Wingard ranks 10th in tackles (19) and 16th in PFF run defense grade (75.9). Derrick Henry was unstoppable with Wingard on the field last week, so Jones’ availability for Sunday could have a big impact on Baltimore’s success on the ground.
If Jones is unable to suit up, Wingard will assumingly start at strong safety again. While he’s somewhat of an issue against the run, he has been much stronger against the pass, as he ranks third on the team in PFF coverage grade (69.3) while Jones has a measly 37.6 PFF coverage grade this year. Wingard would play a big role in containing Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, who has had a fairly underwhelming season thus far compared to his 2019 campaign but is still undoubtedly one of the best players in the league at his position.
Whether Baltimore finds more success on the ground or in the air on Sunday will be largely impacted by Jacksonville’s starter at strong safety. If Jones does play, he’ll have a major role against the run but could struggle against Andrews and Baltimore’s passing offense. If he sits, Wingard will likely have more success in coverage but could be liable against the run game.
DT Doug Costin
Undrafted rookie Doug Costin has been one of the few bright spots on the Jaguars roster this season. He ranks third in PFF grade among Jaguars defenders (behind Joe Giles-Harris and Myles Jack) as well as third among NFL rookie defenders (behind Chase Young and Mykal Walker). Costin has been an especially strong force in the run game, and he’ll need to continue to play well in that area against the run-heavy Ravens.
Baltimore’s rushing attack isn’t as prolific as it was a year ago, but it remains one of the best in the league. It leads the league in total yards, yards per carry and EPA per rush, in large part due to Lamar Jackson, who leads the league in yards per carry and has more rushing yards than all but nine running backs. Rookie J.K. Dobbins has taken over the backfield in recent weeks, and for good reason, as he ranks third among all running backs in yards per carry this year.
The duo has been explosive but also consistent rushers -- among all players with 50-plus rushes this season, Dobbins ranks 14th in explosive run rate (rushes of 10-plus yards) and 12th in success rate; Jackson ranks 7th and 26th, respectively (per Sharp Football Stats). Costin and the rest of the Jaguars defensive line will need to have a strong performance on Sunday to allow Jack and Joe Schobert to make plays behind them and slow down the Raven’s rushing attack.
