Friday Night Logue: Breaking Down the Jaguars' Play Action Adjustments

Jacksonville’s offense has finally made a beneficial schematic tweak, which perhaps not-so-coincidentally came after Urban Meyer’s firing.

The Jacksonville Jaguars currently rank dead last in points scored this season -- and it isn’t particularly close. The difference between Jacksonville and the 31st ranked team is the same as the 31st ranked team and the 25th ranked team.

While a myriad of injuries to skill position players hasn’t helped, the Jaguars couldn’t come up with any creative solutions to boost offensive production for much of the season. But a recent tweak to its play action attack has helped Jacksonville improve both its efficiency and explosiveness in the pass game.

Jacksonville has increased its play action rate from 23.8% in the first 14 weeks of the season to 30.6% in the past two weeks (per Sports Info Solutions). Truthfully, that’s only the difference in three or so plays per game and is skewed by game script as much as anything else. The more significant and constructive change is the Jaguars having raised its play action rate specifically under center from 9.7% to 22.4%.

Trevor Lawrence has delivered an incredible 95% rate of catchable throws on play action in the past two weeks despite throwing the ball much farther down field on average. His play action numbers have improved across the board with completion percentage being the only downgrade, but that number (as well as the others) would be higher if it weren’t for several dropped passes.

Last week Lawrence easily had his best performance of the past two-plus months by both the eye test and The Analytics (shoutout Troy Aikman). Granted, it was against a league-worst Jets defense, but it isn’t a coincidence that it was also the first game of the season that the Jaguars ran double-digit play action passes from under center.

One reason that the offense has found success with these plays is that it buys time for Lawrence to stay in the pocket and for receivers to get downfield. Play action from under center is much better at misdirecting defenders and typically has more pass blockers available than play action from shotgun.

And more time available means more deep-shot opportunities. The Jaguars ranked 30th in average depth of target on play action passes from weeks 1-14 but rank 12th in that metric in the past two weeks. The offense has consequently improved its number of both 10- and 15-plus yard completions per game.

Jacksonville’s initial goal on play action was to take advantage of Lawrence’s mobility outside of the pocket: it used designed rollouts on play action at the sixth highest rate in the league in the first 14 weeks of the season.

This allowed Lawrence to be able to read one side of the field and use his legs to pick up easy yards if given the opportunity, but while it theoretically made the quarterback’s job easier, it also lowered the chances of a big play. Excluding broken plays, the best-chance scenario on these designs is typically an easy throw to move the chains.

But while Lawrence can run extraordinary well for a 6’6” human, it’s undebatable that his best physical trait is his arm talent -- and that’s exactly what under center play action passes have unlocked.

These play action passes to intermediate or deep parts of the field is where Russell Wilson thrived in Seattle under Brian Schottenheimer and Darrell Bevell before him. These coaches now have a bigger say in Jacksonville’s offensive approach for the post-Urban Meyer Jaguars, and it’s clear that Lawrence is prospering as a result.

Other Thoughts

• In case you missed it, the Jaguars have reportedly set interviews with eight head coaching candidates. I’ve made my argument for Nathaniel Hackett previously in this column, but Jim Caldwell and Kellen Moore are the other names that interest me most.

• I don’t think re-signing Cam Robinson or placing the franchise tag on him for a second straight season is out of the equation for Jacksonville, but that could change with a strong performance from Walker Little on Sunday (Robinson is on the COVID list). He’s the Jaguar I’ll be paying the most attention to this week.

• FNL bets are now 4-2 on the season. This week I’m betting the under on Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards total (200.5). Lawrence has the mental and physical capabilities to challenge Bill Belichick, but considering his lack of experience and the environment around him, he should be expected to struggle on the road in New England. The Jaguars will also be without four of its five starting offensive linemen due to COVID protocols against a Patriots defense that ranks sixth in pressure rate. The narrative of Belichick dominating opposing rookie quarterbacks should continue this weekend.