Jaguars Fantasy Football Preview: Running Backs
August is finally here, which means it’s time for fantasy football drafts. This article series will tell you which Jaguars players to target or avoid in all formats, and this edition will focus on Jacksonville’s running back position.
Leonard Fournette is coming off his most productive year in the NFL, but his outlook this upcoming season may be the worst of his career after Jacksonville declined his fifth-year option and attempted to trade him earlier this offseason.
In 2019, Fournette ranked third in touches among all running backs and finished top-10 in rush attempts, rushing yards, receptions and receiving yards. But he was very inefficient, especially in the red zone, which resulted in just three total touchdowns and an RB7 finish in PPR leagues. Fournette’s role suggested he should have had a better performance as he ranked third among running backs in opportunity-adjusted fantasy points according to ESPN.
Regression to the mean in the touchdown department and an elite workload are big reasons why fantasy drafters are coming back to Fournette this year, but neither are a sure thing. Fournette is simply repulsive on red zone rushes, and Jacksonville’s offense is far from a sure bet to generate ample goal line opportunities for him to cash in on. And he should retain his early down/short distance role, but after leading the team in receptions last season, Fournette’s receiving role may be compromised with the recent addition of free agent signee Chris Thompson. Considering how valuable targets and red zone carries are to running back fantasy production, this is a major red flag for Fournette.
Fournette doesn’t get much help from his environment, as Jacksonville finished 27th in Adjusted Line Yards and Fournette saw the 10th-highest rate of stacked boxes last season. The situation could improve if Gardner Minshew takes a second-year leap or if new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden makes significant scheme improvements, but Fournette’s role on a bad offense on a bad team certainly isn’t ideal.
Fournette is set to face the fourth-easiest schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs (per Fantasy Points) and the fifth-easiest schedule in terms of defensive rush efficiency (per Sharp Football Stats). But that only goes so far considering the Jaguars are serious candidates to lead the league in time trailing this season.
To recap: Fournette’s positives are an easy rushing schedule and a possible workhorse role, but his negatives are roster uncertainty, inefficiency, possible lack of valuable touches and a poor environment. Fournette is currently ranked as PRR’s RB19, so his potential flaws are already baked into his average draft position, but his fourth-round price is still an easy pass considering how many exciting wide receiver options are available in that range. Fournette is also an obvious sell-high in dynasty leagues considering his shaky future with the team.
On the other hand, Thompson is a screaming value. He played for Gruden for six seasons in Washington and caught at least 35 passes in every year but 2014. He averaged 9.6 PPR fantasy points per game in that span, with his best season coming in 2017 when he was PPR’s RB10 before a season-ending ankle injury in Week 11.
Thompson is 29 and has struggled staying on the field due to injury the past few years- but he could see a plethora of targets if he stays healthy, especially considering Minshew ranked third in checkdown rate last season. Thomson is a very unsexy pick, but his RB61 ranking makes him available for free in standard 10-team leagues and for next-to-nothing in deeper formats. His cost is simply too low considering he has a very easy path to valuable work in the receiving game on a team that figures to pass a lot in 2020.
Thompson’s receiving role makes him a sharper choice than Ryquell Armstead, who is a popular expert sleeper pick and is well-liked by the organization but probably won’t see many snaps in his second NFL season. The Temple product is highly unlikely to rise to fantasy relevance as the third running back on a bad offense- even if one of Fournette/Thompson goes down, the other will still play enough snaps to prevent Armstead from being the valuable handcuff that he’s currently touted as. He is a smart dynasty stash but overvalued in season-long formats. Devine Ozigbo got some hype last preseason but is fantasy-irrelevant at this point as the fourth running back on the roster.
