2021 NFL Free Agency Preview: Running Backs
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The free-agent negotiating period begins on March 15, with free agents able to officially sign contracts when the league-year starts at 3 p.m. on March 17.
Our series of free-agent previews continues with the running backs.
The Packers’ Picture
Packers Need (1-10 scale): 6. With Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and even Tyler Ervin headed to free agency, the Packers’ backfield is incredibly short on depth and totally vacant of proven depth. At this point, AJ Dillon would be the starter, with Dexter Williams, Mike Weber and Patrick Taylor fighting for the No. 2 role.
Packers Free Agents: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Tyler Ervin. In the case of Jones, sometimes, it pays to wait. With Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook and New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara among the stud backs signing extensions last year, Jones has positioned himself as the best running back on the market. Even with COVID crunching the salary cap, he will get a lot of money as the belle of the ball. The Packers could use the franchise tag on him, either to keep their star runner or to trade him. COVID does figure to impact Williams’ market. While he does everything at a winning level, he is not a field-tilting performer. For their careers, Jones’ 10-yard run rate is 13.1 percent compared to 7.6 for Williams. Ervin was a savior as a returner in 2019 but couldn't deliver during an injury-plagued 2020.
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Top 15 Free Agents
Aaron Jones, Green Bay: Among all backs in NFL history with at least 650 carries, Jones ranks sixth with a 5.17-yard average. He’s averaged at least 5.47 yards per carry in three of his four seasons. He had another great year in 2020 to earn his first Pro Bowl accolades. While he didn’t find the end zone nearly as often (11 total touchdowns vs. 19 in 2019), he rushed for a career-high 1,104 yards and averaged 5.49 yards per carry.
Where Jones really jumps to the forefront is with his explosiveness. His ability to cut and go without losing speed is elite. Defenders frequently are diving at ankles because he’s so explosive. Among backs with 80 carries, Jones ranked 13th with a missed-tackle rate of 17.9 percent in 2020. His average of 3.3 yards after contact ranked fourth in the league and first among the free agents, according to Sports Info Solutions. He added 47 receptions, giving him 96 the past two seasons. In four seasons, he has 4,421 total yards and 43 total touchdowns, and averaged 5.7 yards per touch. Jones an explosive performer with no real weakness in his game. He turned 26 in December.
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Chris Carson, Seattle: Carson is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. After rushing for 1,151 yards in 2018 and 1,230 yards in 2019, he rushed for 681 yards in 12 games in 2020. Over the last three seasons, Carson has rushed for 3,062 yards, averaged 4.6 yards per carry, caught 94 passes and scored 27 touchdowns. His broken-tackle rate was 14.9 percent and he averaged 2.8 yards after contact. He’ll turn 27 early next season.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis: Mack rushed for 908 yards (4.7 average) in 12 games in 2018 and 1,091 yards (4.7 average) in 14 games in 2019. However, he suffered a torn Achilles in the 2020 opener and missed the rest of the season. He’s a dynamic runner. However, he’s played in only 41 of a possible 64 games and has never caught more than 21 passes. For his career, his missed-tackle rate is 15.2 percent and he’s averaged 2.5 yards after contact. He turned 25 on Sunday.
James Conner, Pittsburgh: Conner isn’t just a good story for beating cancer. He’s a good back, period. Conner rushed for 721 yards and six touchdowns in 2020. Over his last three seasons, he has 2,158 rushing yards, 124 receptions, 3,121 total yards and 26 total touchdowns. Among backs with 80-plus carries, his broken tackle rate of 20.1 percent ranked sixth overall and first among the free agents. He averaged 2.4 yards after contact. He’ll turn 26 after the draft.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona: Drake faces an interesting free agency because he’s shown flashes of brilliance but not consistently. Acquired in a trade with Miami during the 2019 season, he played under the transition tag of almost $8.5 million last season. He set career highs with 955 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2020. On the other hand, he averaged only 4.0 yards per carry and his receiving production crashed to 25 receptions and just 5.5 yards per grab. His 4.1 yards per touch was 1.4 yards worse than it was with Miami from 2016 through the start of 2019. He forced a missed tackle on 9.2 percent of his carries and averaged 2.0 yards after contact, both fifth-worst in the league. He turned 27 in January.
Jamaal Williams, Green Bay: Williams flourished in Matt LaFleur’s zone-based running game. After averaging 3.6 yards per carry as a rookie and 3.8 in his second seasons, those numbers were up to 4.3 in 2019 and 4.2 in 2020. Not only did he rush for 505 yards this season, but he caught 31-of-35 passes (88.6 percent) for 236 more yards. He plays bigger than he is, whether it’s running into the teeth of the defense or picking up a blitzer. In four seasons, he has zero fumbles. The problem is there’s not a lot of sizzle to his game. His broken-tackle rate of 10.1 percent was one of the worst in the NFL. He averaged a solid 2.6 yards after contact. He’s probably held in higher regard by the Packers than most teams.
Duke Johnson, Houston: A career backup, Johnson has started only 17 games in six seasons. He has 1,931 career rushing yards – less than Tennessee’s Derrick Henry in 2020 – but is a huge asset with 307 career receptions. In 11 games in 2020, he rushed for 235 yards and averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per touch. His missed-tackle rate (14.3) and yards after contact (2.0) in 2020 lagged far behind his career marks (21.4 percent, 2.5 after contact). The 27-year-old was released recently by the Texans.
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay: Inexplicably released by Jacksonville after rushing for a career-high 1,152 yards while adding a career-best 76 receptions in 2019, Fournette rushed for 367 yards (3.8 average) and caught 36 passes with Tampa Bay in 2020. He came up big repeatedly in the playoffs, though, with 300 rushing yards, 19 receptions and one touchdown in all four games. He’s only 26. His missed-tackle rate was 10.1 percent and he averaged 2.2 yards after contact, pretty ho-hum numbers for a man his size.
Mike Davis, Carolina: With Christian McCaffrey missing most of the season, Davis picked up the slack as best he could with 642 rushing yards (3.9 average) and a career-high 59 receptions. His 1,015 total yards was by far the best of his career. His broken-tackle rate of 18.8 percent ranked 10th among backs with 80-plus carries. He averaged 2.7 yards after contact. Davis, who has played for four teams in his six seasons, turned 28 last month.
James White, New England: Need a third-down back? Then White’s your man. The former Wisconsin star has more receptions (369) than rushes (309) in his seven-year career. His production has waned, though, from 87 catches in 2018 to 72 in 2019 to 49 in 2020, though some of last year’s drop-off was due to the change from Tom Brady to Cam Newton at quarterback. He had only 121 rushing yards in 2020. He turned 29 last month.
Le’Veon Bell, N.Y. Jets: Bell is the poster child for the peril of paying great running backs. Bell had 2,215 total yards in 2014, 1,884 total yards in 2016 and 1,946 total yards in 2017. He played under the franchise tag for Pittsburgh in 2017, sat out 2018 in a contract dispute and inked a four-year, $52.5 million contract with the Jets in 2019. The Jets’ reward? A hideous 4.0 yards per touch in 2019. They cut him in October 2020, and he was a meager contributor for the Chiefs on their way to the Super Bowl. He did show some flashes, though, with a missed-tackle rate of 20.6 percent that was sixth-best in the league. On the other hand, after averaging almost 80 receptions during his healthy seasons of 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2019, Bell caught only 16 balls in 11 games in 2020. He turned 29 last month.
Tevin Coleman, San Francisco: From 2016 through 2019, Coleman had 2,492 rushing yards, 111 receptions and 35 total touchdowns. In 2020, he carried 28 times for 53 yards and caught just four passes. He was limited to eight games by a knee injury. A third-round pick in 2015, he’ll turn 28 next month.
Todd Gurley, Atlanta: Gurley also is a poster child for not handing running backs huge contracts. The NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year for the Rams in 2017, he led the NFL with 2,093 total yards and 19 total touchdowns. Before the 2018 season, he signed a four-year, $60 million contract extension that included $45 million in guarantees. Gurley promptly tallied 1,831 total yards and a league-leading 21 total touchdowns. His career took a sharp nosedive, though. His yards per touch went from 6.1 in 2017 and 5.8 in 2018 to 4.2 in 2019. The Rams dumped him and he landed in Atlanta, where he averaged just 3.8 yards per touch in 2020. He had a missed-tackle rate of 15.4 percent and averaged 2.2 yards after contact. Once a killer receiver, he caught 56 passes for 371 yards the past two seasons. The previous two seasons, he caught 123 passes for 1,368 yards.
Malcolm Brown, L.A. Rams: Coming off the bench in all 16 games, Brown had a career-high 419 rushing yards and recorded 23 of his 43 career receptions. He forced a missed tackle on 13.9 percent of his carries but averaged a woeful 1.5 yards after contact that was second-worst in the league. He’ll turn 28 in May.
Carlos Hyde, Seattle: Hyde rushed for 356 yards (4.4 average) and caught 16 passes in 10 games for Seattle. In 2019, he thundered for 1,070 yards for Houston. A bruising 230-pounder, his broken-tackle rate was 12.3 percent and he averaged 2.5 yards after contact. He will turn 31 in September.
